Transcript Main actions

Session 3
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Statistical Division
2008 SNA - Implementation plans in SPECA
countries
Presentation by UNECE
Gabriel Gamez
28-29 August 2012
Overview
1. Background
2. Completed regional activities on the 2008 SNA
implementation
3. Draft implementation plan tables
4. Draft implementation plan tables for SPECA
5. Conclusions reached at the May 2012 meeting in Geneva
6. Planned regional activities on the 2008 SNA
implementation
7. Points to consider
October 2012
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 2
Background
• Recommendations of the UNSC
• UN Statistics Division in New York coordinates global
implementation
• UN regional commissions → regional implementation plans
• UNECE to support implementation in South and East
Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia
• UNECE Survey on SNA implementation in the region in 2010
• 19 replies from the countries of South and East Europe,
Caucasus and Central Asia as well as Mongolia
•
October 2012
Implementation plans in progress
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 3
Completed regional activities on
the 2008 SNA implementation (1)
Time
Activity
February 2010
UNECE conducted a survey on the challenges in implementation
of 2008 SNA in East Europe and Central Asian countries
April 2010
Special session at the meeting of the Expert Group on National
Accounts to present the survey results and to discuss the need for
an implementation strategy for the 2008 SNA. Geneva, 26 April
May 2011
Joint IMF/EFTA/UNECE Workshop on Links between Government
Finance and National Accounts Statistics for East Europe and
Central Asian countries. Vienna, 2-6 May
July 2011
Production of country profiles, based on the 2010 survey and
bilateral contacts with countries, which identify main outstanding
problems and the need for technical assistance country by country
October 2012
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 4
Completed regional activities on
the 2008 SNA implementation (2)
Time
Activity
November 2011
Joint UNECE/UNSD/EFTA Workshop on the implementation of the
2008 SNA in Central Asia and Eastern European countries. Kiev,
29 November – 2 December
February 2012
UNECE received draft implementation plans (all 6 SPECA
countries replied)
April 2012
Launch of website for material on 2008 SNA implementation,
including country profiles, draft implementation plans and training
materials or links to training materials
May 2012
Special session at the meeting of the Expert Group on National
Accounts, where the draft national plans were presented
(Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan) and discussed, and a draft regional
implementation plan was developed
October 2012
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 5
Draft implementation plan tables
• In 2011 UNECE developed a table to help countries to
formulate structured national implementation plans
• The table follows the three stages and milestones for the change
over to the 2008 SNA as suggested by the ISWGNA
• Each stage has been divided into more detailed actions points
based on discussions with the countries in the region
• The table helps to identify problems and priorities
•
•
reflecting both users' needs and resources constraints
It enables timely support for the implementation
process of the 2008 SNA in the countries
The structure of tables was discussed and refined at
the Workshop in Kiev
October 2012
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 6
Draft implementation plan tables:
Content
Stage 1:
Review of national or regional statistical strategic papers for inclusion of the
2008 SNA implementation plan
a)
b)
c)
d)
e)
f)
Stage 2:
Review of work needed to support implementation of 2008 SNA
a)
b)
c)
d)
Stage 3:
Identification of outstanding issues with 1993 SNA
The main changes from 1993 SNA to 2008 SNA and their impacts
Institutional agreements
Prioritization based on user needs and available resources
Inclusion of the implementation of 2008 SNA in the overall strategic plan of the statistical office
Adoption of detailed implementation action plans
Adoption of classifications and other improvements in business statistics and business registers
Changes in business surveys to collect data for 2008 SNA
Adaptation of administrative data sources to the new requirements
IT and other changes
Development of National Accounts and changeover to 2008 SNA
Milestone 1. Basic indicators of GDP
Milestone 2. GNI and other primary indicators
Milestone 3. Institutional sector accounts: first step
Milestone 4. Institutional sector accounts: intermediate step 1
Milestone 5. Institutional sector accounts: intermediate step 2
Milestone 6. Institutional sector accounts: final step
October 2012
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 7
Draft implementation plan tables for SPECA
STAGE 1 - Review of strategic papers
a Identification of main
b
outstanding issues with
SNA 1993
Understanding the main
changes in 2008 SNA and
their importance
c Identification of the main
institutions involved,
establishment of
agreements for 2008 SNA
implementation
d Prioritization for 2008
SNA, based on user
needs and resources
e Inclusion of 2008 SNA
implementation in the
overall strategic plan
f Adoption of a detailed
implementation plan for
2008 SNA
October 2012
Status
Activities and problems
Need for TA
Timing
Completed: 6
Clear understanding of main outstanding issues
with SNA 1993
Completed: 2
On-going: 2
Planned: 2
Main actions: Main focus on changes affecting
GDP, drafting guidelines and instructions of new
methods
Seminars, workshops,
guidelines in Russian,
experience of others
2012: 1
2015: 1
2016: 2
On-going: 4
Planned: 1
Not started: 1
Main actions: Development and signing of
agreements or MOU with other institutions,
discussions on 2008 SNA changes
Coordination of cooperation
between the institutions,
and seminars for their staff,
experience of others
2012: 2
2013: 1
2015: 1
2016: 1
Completed: 1
On-going: 2
Planned: 1
Not started: 2
Main actions: Workshops for the users,
discussions with users and other institutions
Main problems: Lack of resources to communicate
with users
Training for the users on
2008 SNA issues
2012: 2
2015: 1
2016: 1
Completed: 4
On-going: 2
Main actions: Development and inclusion of plans
in overall statistical plans
Main problems: Issues related to coordination with
overall plans for statistics
Completed: 2
On-going: 3
Not started: 1
Main actions: Development of a detailed plan, the
plan to be coordinated or included into the
medium-term plans for statistics
Main problems: Issues related to coordination with
overall plans for statistics
UNECE Statistical Division
2013: 1
2015: 1
Exchange of country views
2012: 2
2013: 1
Slide 8
Draft implementation plan tables for SPECA
STAGE 2 - Review of work needed to support implementation
a Adoption of new
classifications in
business registers
and business
statistics
b Changes in business
statistics surveys
and questionnaires
c Adaptation of
administrative data
sources
Status
Activities and problems
Need for TA
Timing
Completed: 2
On-going: 2
Planned: 1
Not planned yet: 1
Main actions: Development, adoption and
implementation of national classifications
according NACE rev.2 (ISIC 4), development of
other classifications and tables for transition.
Main problems: Need for improvements in business
registers, backcasting issues.
Workshops on
backcasting,
classifications,
business registers
and business
statistics
2012:1
2014: 1
2017: 1
On-going: 4
Planned: 2
Main actions: Reviewing data sources, changes in
statistical surveys and questionnaires
Main problems: Lack of resources and knowledge,
sampling issues, difficulties with data collection
Workshops,
experience of other
countries
Continuously: 3
2014: 2
2016: 1
On-going: 4
Planned: 1
Not planned yet: 1
Main actions: Reviewing data sources, cooperation
with CB and MoF on implementation of BPM 6 and
GFS, cooperation with administrative registers
Main problems: Difficulties with data sources and
data collection
Workshops,
consultations
Continuously: 2
2014: 2
2016: 1
Main actions: Improvement of IT and data
warehouses in national accounts and basic
statistics
Main problems: Lack of resources, need for
software and training of staff
IT training for staff
Continuously: 2
2014: 1
2017: 1
d IT and other changes On-going: 4
Planned:
Not planned yet: 2
October 2012
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 9
Draft implementation plan tables for SPECA
STAGE 3 - Development of National Accounts and changeover
Milestone 1. Basic indicators of GDP: Outstanding issues from SNA 1993
• GDP production and expenditure side
• Main actions: Data sources, coverage, deflators, quarterly GDP
• GDP exhaustiveness
• Main actions: NOE, estimates for illegal activities
• GDP at constant prices
• Main actions: Deflators, double deflation, GDP by expenditure
• Main problems: Need for detailed price indices
• Owner-occupied dwellings services
• Main actions: Identification of data sources, studies of methodology
• Main problems: Lack of information by categories of dwellings
• Accrual basis for GFS data recording
• Main actions: Discussions with Ministry of Finance and other partners
• Supply-Use tables
• Main actions: Experimental calculations
• Main problems: Lack of human and financial resources to collect and process information
• Regional GDP
• Main actions: NUTS levels, data sources by regions, cooperation with other institutions
October 2012
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 10
Draft implementation plan tables for SPECA
STAGE 3 - Development of National Accounts and changeover
Milestone 1. Basic indicators of GDP: New issues from 2008 SNA
• Output of the Central bank
• Main actions: Studies of methodology, discussions with CB, preparation of methods
• Main problems: Lack of resources, availability of appropriate data
• Calculation of FISIM and allocation to users
• Main actions: Studies of methodology, discussions with CB, preparation of methods
• Expenditure on R&D
• Main actions: Studies of methodology, discussions in NSO and with other institutions, methods
• Main problems: Statistical questionnaires, changes in GFS needed, new survey, resources
• Military expenditure
• Main actions: Studies of methodology, discussions with MF and others, experimental calculations
• Main problems: Lack of resources, changes in GFS needed, military expenditure is confidential
• Consumption of fixed capital & Other changes for fixed assets
• Main actions: Perpetual inventory method study, improvement of estimates in government sector,
changes in questionnaires, experimental calculations
• Main problems: No long time series by types of fixed assets, lack of resources
• Goods for processing (sent to and received from abroad)
• Main actions: Identification of issues, discussions with other institutions
October 2012
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 11
Draft implementation plan tables for SPECA
STAGE 3 - Development of National Accounts and changeover
Milestone 2. GNI and other primary indicators
For rest of the world – external accounts of primary income and current transfers,
capital and financial accounts (BPM 6)
Status
Activities and
problems
• 4 - in process of study and discussion, 2 - not
planned yet
• Main actions: Study of the 2008 SNA and BPM 6,
cooperation with CB, adjustment of existing
methods and surveys
• Main problems: Lack of resources, insufficient IT
support, issues with data sources
Need for TA
• Guidelines, training and workshops
Planned
timeframe
• 2 - Continuously, 1 - 2014, 1 - 2015
October 2012
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 12
Draft implementation plan tables for SPECA
STAGE 3 - Development of National Accounts and changeover
Milestone 3-6. Institutional sector accounts:
All accounts: Including Financial accounts, Balance sheets
Status
Activities and
problems
Need for TA
Planned
timeframe
October 2012
• 3 - in process of study and discussion, 3 - not
planned yet
• Main actions: Study of the 2008 SNA and BPM
6, cooperation with CB, adjustment of existing
methods and surveys
• Main problems: Lack of resources, insufficient IT
support, issues with data sources
• Guidelines, training and workshops
• 2013 - 2020
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 13
Conclusions reached at the May 2012
meeting in Geneva
 Countries welcomed the support to the 2008 SNA implementation
 General agreement to follow the stages and the milestones for the
implementation of the 2008 SNA, as suggested by the ISWGNA
• Particular circumstances in countries should be taken into account to
ensure the development of realistic implementation plans
 Dissemination and communication of the updated national accounts
indicators to be addressed in further detail in:
• Report of activities to support the implementation of the 2008 SNA in
Eastern European and Central Asian countries
 UNECE to establish a website for 2008 SNA implementation
• Relevant materials and useful links, draft national implementation plan
•
tables
http://www1.unece.org/stat/platform/display/SNA2008Imp/Home
October 2012
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 14
Conclusions reached at the May 2012
meeting in Geneva
 Technical assistance and practical guidance needed in a number of
areas, such as:
• Improvement of primary statistics; use of administrative sources and
statistical business registers; classifications; prices and volume
measures; exhaustiveness of the national accounts; measurement of the
non-observed economy; integrated accounts and tables; financial
statistics; institutional sector accounts; software; backcasting, time
series analysis and seasonal adjustment practices
 UNECE to provide assistance in the form of methodological
guidance, training workshops and materials, in English and Russian
• Subject to the availability of funding
 Internal coordination within NSOs to be improved to involve primary
statistics in the implementation of the 2008 SNA
October 2012
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 15
Conclusions reached at the May 2012
meeting in Geneva
 Cooperation with Ministries of Finance and Central Banks is crucial
• The 2008 SNA and the BPM6 implementation should be coordinated
 Cooperation of regional and international organizations to ensure
• Efficient and consistent support to countries
• Coordinated implementation of the BPM6 and the 2008 SNA
 Special sessions to follow-up on the 2008 SNA implementation
• To be organized in conjunction with the Meeting of Group of Experts on
National Accounts in 2014 and 2016
October 2012
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 16
Planned regional activities on the
2008 SNA implementation
Time
Activity
November 2012
Joint UNSD/UNECE Workshop on economic classifications and
their implementation for primary economic statistics and national
accounts in statistical offices in East Europe and Central Asia
Early 2013
Joint IMF/EFTA/UNECE seminar on the links between
Government Finance Statistics and the National Accounts
Mid-2014
Special session at the meeting of the Expert Group on National
Accounts, to take stock and plan for the following two-year period
2013 - 2014
Capacity building missions and specialized workshops (depending
on funding)
Mid-2016
Special session at the meeting of the Expert Group on National
Accounts, to take stock and look forward for follow-up activities
October 2012
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 17
Points to consider
 The 2008 SNA to be implemented while still developing the full
system of accounts – a challenge or an advantage?
 The draft implementation plan tables should be revised by countries
during 2012-2013
 Technical Assistance and Cooperation: The 2008 SNA
implementation depends on the availability of appropriate resources.
• Allocation of sufficient resources within the national statistical offices to
•
•
ensure that the plans can actually be implemented
Provision of technical assistance by international and regional
organisations during the implementation process
Funding of the different activities, both from national and international
sources, should be considered as part of the implementation plans
October 2012
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 18