Transcript No Slide Title

Directorate of Surveys
SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
Brazil
Roberto Luís Olinto Ramos
Head of National Accounts Co-ordination
[email protected]
October, 2007
Doing statistics and national
accounts in Brazil
Population
186,777,562
Area
8,514,876 Km2
IBGE
27 states
27 unities (each state)
5,564 municipalities
532 agencies
The Brazilian National Statistical System
Coordination
(IBGE)
Statistics of National scope
(IBGE)
Statistics of Regional scope Administrative Registers
(State Statistics Agencies
(Ministries / Secretariats /
OREs)
Central Bank
Articulated database
(Regional/Sectorial/National)
Institutional organization
Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics
Directorate of Surveys
SNA - Latin-American organization
Statistical offices – Brazil, Argentina, Colombia Bolívia
Peru,Cuba, Mexico
Central Banks – Uruguay, Paraguay,Chile, Ecuador, Venezuela,
Costa Rica, Honduras, El Salvador, Guatemala, Republica Dominicana,
Nicaragua .....
Directorate of Surveys Organogram
Directorate of Surveys
Population
Census
Committee
Technical
Management
of Population
Census
Technical
Management
of Agricultural
Census
Coordination
of Agriculture
Surveys
Coordination of
Economic Statistics
and Classifications
Management of
Business Register
Management of
Dissemination
Management of
Planning and
Budget
Coordination
Coordination
Coordination
Coordination Coordination
Coordination
Coordination
of Services
of Mining and
of Population
of Household
of Prices
of Methods
of
National
and Trade
Manufacturing
and Social
Surveys
Indexes
and Quality
Accounts
Surveys
Surveys
Indicators
National Accounts in Brazil
Some history
Getúlio Vargas Foundation / IBGE
Four accounts
Current prices and constant prices with a
fixed year
1947 - 1989
“benchmark” each five years (0 and 5) with
the Agriculture and Industry Census
Values extrapolated with volume and price
indices
Current values for some activities
(Government, Central Bank etc.)
December 1997
SNA based on SNA (1993)
SUT – IEA
Current prices and previous year
1990 - 2003
SUT – 80 products and 43 activities
IEA – Institutional Sectors
Values extrapolated with volume and price
indices
Current values for some activities (Government,
Central Bank etc.)
1990
•Crash in the IBGE Budget
•Last Census 1985
•No annual economic statistics => no
benchmark
1995
Redefinition of economic statistics
Economic Statistics
• New model (since 1995)
• Basis of the new system
– Business Register - CEMPRE
– National Classification of Economic Activities
• Annual Surveys
• Monthly Surveys
Statistical Production System
Economics
Social and demographics
Demographics Census
Population Count
Business Register
Agricultural Census
Sampling Surveys
Households
Enterprises or Establishment
Annual: PIA, PAC, PAS, PAIC, PAM,
Annual: PNAD
Monthly: PME
Special: POF, ECINF
PPM,PEVS
Monthly: SNIPC, PIM, PMC
Special: PINTEC
Administrative Registers:
Civil Register, MUNIC, MAS, PNSB
Social Indicators System
National Accounts System
DATA BASE FOR THE SNA
Economic Statistics (annual surveys)
• Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Industries Enterprise ( PIA - Empresa) 40,369 enterprises
• Survey of Mining and Manufacturing Industries Product (PIA - Produto)
• Survey of Construction Industry (PAIC) 11,500
enterprises
• Survey of Commerce (PAC) 50,737 enterprises
• Survey of Services (PAS) 67,470 enterprises
Household Surveys
• 2000 Population Census: 54 million of households
• PNAD 2006: 140 thousand of households, annual
• Urban informality -ECINF 2004: 54 thousand of
households
• Expenditure -POF 2002-2003: 60 thousand of
households
• Employment - PME: 42 thousand of households,
monthly
Agriculture Statistics
• Census of Agriculture
• Annual Surveys
– Municipal Agricultural Production Temporary and Permanent
Crops (PAM)
– Municipal Livestock Production Survey (PPM)
– Extractive Agriculture and Forestry Production (PEVS)
• Short-term Surveys
– Systematic Survey of Agricultural Production (LSPAmonthly)
– Animal slaughter, milk production, leather, eggs
– Survey of Stocks
Prices Statistics (monthly)
• National System of Consumer Prices
Indexes (11 areas)
• National System of Cost Survey and Indices
of Construction – SINAPI
• Producer’s Price Indices
External Sources
• FISCAL DECLARATION – Ministry of Economy
• Bussiness registers
• Central Bank
• Government
• National Agency of Electric Energy - ANEEL
• National Agency of Oil- ANP
• External Trade - SECEX
• .......
SNA – reference 2000
Released in March 2007
The reference 2000 SNA series incorporates in its compilation the following
actions:
I)
New classification of products and activities, integrated with CNAE
1.0 and ISIC Rev. 3.
•
Enlargement of the number of activities and products in the SUT
•
IEA updated with de DIPJ's data.
IV)
Availability of the annual surveys accomplished by the IBGE.
V)
Introduction of the 2002 Expenditure Household Survey as a family
consumption reference.
VI)
Introduction of data from the Agricultural Census of 1995/6.
VII) Jobs disaggregation for production function, what enables the estimate
considering the characteristics of productive units.
VIII) Methodology calculation and development of the consumption of fixed
capital by the Government and Non Profit institutions.
IX)
Distribution of the Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly intermediary
consumption by activity, enabling the elimination of the fictitious sector
Financial Dummy.
X)
Update of the methodology for estimating volume indices. Mostly for public
administrations and financial intermediation that, in the previous series, were
extrapolated by the demographic growth and by the economy average,
respectively.
Disaggregation the Non-profit institutions from Household Institutional Sector
in the final consumption and in the IEA.
•
=> 2000 – 2005 reviewed with all new
data sources and methodological
improvements
=>1996- 1999 backcasting
=>1990 – 1994 maintained
16-jan-89
Cruzado Novo
Deflato r
16-mar-90
Cruzeiro
01-ago-93
Cruzeiro Real
01-jul-94
Real
A no
Variação
anual em %
1991
416,68
1992
969,01
1993
1996,15
1994
2 240,17
1995
77,55
Brazilian System of National Accounts
QUARTERLY
– 70 days after the end of a quarter
ANNUAL
– provisional version (T-1)
- semi-definitive (??)
- definitive (T-2)
REGIONAL
– definitive (T-2)
MUNICIPALITIES – GDP only (T-2)
SATELLITES
Tourism (project well definided)
Health (project well defined)
Culture (dream)
R & D (dream)
SNA
SUT working level
293 products 149 activities
publication level 110 products 55 activities
IOT each five years
IEA
Non-financial corporations
Financial corporations
General Government
Households
Non-profit institutions serving households
Rest of the world
IEA
Current Accounts
I. Production
II. Distribution and use of income accounts
II.1 Primary distribution of income
II.1.1Generation of income
II.1.2Allocation of Primary Income
II.2 Secondary distribution of income
II. 3 Redistribitution of income in kind
II.4 Use of Income Account
II.4.1Use of Disposable Income
II. 4.2 Use of adjustable disposable
income
Accumulation Accounts
III.1 Capital Account
III.2 Financial Account
QNA
• New series of the Brazilian System of Quarterly National
Accounts were released in March 2007, following the
reformulation of the Annual System.
• QNA data are disseminated in:
• current prices,
• chain-linked volume indices (1995=100) and
• rates of change.
QNA presents data of GDP by 12 economic activities and
by component of final expenditures (final consumption
expenditure of households, final consumption
expenditure of government, gross fixed capital formation,
changes in inventories, exports and imports of good and
services).
QNA
Data are released for the following activities:
• Agriculture, forestry and fishing
• Industry: Mining, Manufacturing, Utilities and
Construction
• Services: Commerce, Transportation, Information
Services, Rents, Financial Institutions, Public
Administration and Other Services
Quarterly series are adjusted to annual data with a Denton
type method.
The data for GDP, Agriculture, Industry, Services and
expenditure components, except changes in inventories, are
seasonally adjusted. The X-12 ARIMA method is used for
seasonal adjustment.
REGIONAL
For 27 states the Production Account
MUNICIPALITES
GDP in current values for the 5564 municipalities
SATELLITES
Tourism (project well definided) + Ministry of Tourism
Health (project well defined) + Ministry of Health
Culture (dream)
R & D (dream)
DISSEMINATION – preannounced schedule
• March of year T: GDP, the demand components and the value added of the
previous year with base in quarterly data for 12 economic activities in current
values and volume indices, annual variation.
•In the second semester, the definitive version of T-2 is published with a complete
(110 products and 55 activities) SUT and an IEA. A preliminary version of T-1
with a small SUT (12 activities) was also published.
•QNA data are published 70 days after the end of each quarter. In the QNA a SUT
is estimated for each quarter, however only the added value of 12 economic
activities is published. chained volume indices, seasonally adjust volume indices
and the current values for the GDP, the components of the final demand and the
value added of 12 economic activities and an integrated economic account for the
country, including the financial account.
•Regional data for T-2 are published in December each year
Data Access
 Publications : methodology and tables with a CD
 Internet: all data is available for download
 On-line bookstore
NEXT STEPS
• Financial Account until December 2007.
• Balance Sheets
•2012, with reference to 2010, a new revision will be
presented. (ISICRev. 4, the new Expenditure Household
Survey 2007, the Agricultural Census of 2007…..)
GDP
1995-2005
GDP 2000-2005
Ano
Produto Interno Bruto
1 000 000 R$
Variação real
anual
Preços
Preços do ano
(%)
correntes
anterior
2000 Série Antiga
1 101 255
1 016 312
4,4
2000 Nova Série
1 179 482
1 110 861
4,3
2001 Série Antiga
1 198 736
1 115 710
1,3
2001 Nova Série
1 302 136
1 194 970
1,3
2002 Série Antiga
1 346 028
1 221 834
1,9
2002 Nova Série
1 477 822
1 336 748
2,7
2003 Série Antiga
1 556 182
1 353 363
0,5
2003 Nova Série
1 699 948
1 494 767
1,1
2004 Série Antiga(2)
1 766 621
1 632 999
4,9
2004 Nova Série
1 941 498
1 797 054
5,7
2005 Série Antiga(2)
1 937 598
1 806 848
2,3
2005 Nova Série(2)
2 147 943
1 998 646
2,9
Fonte: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Contas Nacionais e Coordenação de População e Indicadores Sociais.
(1) População estimada para 1º de julho - revisão 2004.
(2) Resultados de 2004 calculados a partir das Contas Nacionais Trimestrais.
Nova/Antiga
%
7 ,1
8 ,6
9 ,8
9 ,2
9 ,9
1 0 ,9
Participação das atividades no valor adicionado - 2000
Participação no valor adicionado a preços básicos (%)
Classes e atividades
Série Antiga (sem dummy)
Nova Série
01 Agropecuária
75 222
7,7
57 241
5,6
Indústria
354 180
36,1
283 321
27,7
02 Extrativa mineral
24 289
2,5
16 271
1,6
03 Transformação
211 679
21,6
175 934
17,2
04 Prod. e distrib. de eletricidade, gás e água
32 749
3,3
34 752
3,4
05 Construção civil
85 463
8,7
56 364
5,5
552 459
56,3
681 086
66,7
06 Comércio
69 432
7,1
108 275
10,6
07 Transporte, armazenagem e correio
25 473
2,6
49 741
4,9
08 Serviços de informação
25 786
2,6
36 827
3,6
09 Interm. financ. seguros, prev. complem. e serviços
51 304
5,2
60 907
6,0
10 Ativ. imobiliárias e aluguel
120 208
12,2
115 399
11,3
11 Outros Serv.
106 508
10,8
157 416
15,4
12 Adm., saúde e educação públicas
153 747
15,7
152 521
14,9
Valor adicionado a preços básicos
981 861
100,0
1 021 648
100,0
Impostos líquidos sobre produtos
119 394
12,2
157 834
15,4
1 101 255
112,2
1 179 482
115,4
Serviços
Produto interno bruto
Fonte: IBGE, Diretoria de Pesquisas, Coordenação de Contas Nacionais.