Transcript Lecture 23: The Rise of China

Lecture 23: The Rise of China
1. Historical Background
2. Power Transition Theory
3. Recent Chinese Growth
4. American-Chinese Relations: Sources of Conflict
5. Regional Stability in Asia
6. Will China Become a Democracy?
7. Student Questions
Historical Background
1911
End of the Ch’ing Dynasty (1644-1911)
Instability, Revolts,
Invasions, and Civil War
1949
1950
Mao’s Communist Victory
Intervention in the Korean War (November)
Decay of Chinese-Soviet Relations
1966
1969
1972
1976
1978
2001
Soviet-Chinese Border Clashes
Nixon Plays the “China Card”
Death of Mao
“Market Reforms” Begin Slowly
Cultural Revolution
A Success Story
Time Period
1960-1978 (pre-reform)
1979-1999 (post-reform)
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000 (Jan-June)
Source: Morrison 2000
Average Annual
% Growth
5.3
9.7
9.3
14.2
13.5
12.7
10.5
9.7
8.8
7.8
7.1
8.2
Power Transition Theory
The Within Country Power Transition
GROSS
NATIONAL
PRODUCT
POWER TRANSITION POINT
TIME
The Between Country Power Transition
RISING CHALLENGER
DECLINING HEGEMON
GROSS
NATIONAL
PRODUCT
THE CROSS OVER POINT
TIME
Two Key Questions
Will China
Surpass
the U.S.?
Is China
Dissatisfied?
Measuring Size and Growth Rate
Problem #1: How Big Is The Chinese Economy?
Nominal
Country GDP $B
---------------U.S.
9,234
Japan
4,370
Germany 2,111
China
997
GDP
PPP $B
------9,234
2,935
1,748
5,201
Nominal
GDP
per capita
33,835
34,519
25,694
790
Problem #2: How Fast Will It Grow?
PPP
GDP
per capita
33,835
23,465
21,841
4,228
The Power Transition (US 3% and China 6% )
80.0
GNP $trillion (PPP)
70.0
60.0
50.0
US
40.0
China
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
1990
2000
2010
2020
Year
2030
2040
2050
Transitions and Conflict
Will China
Surpass
the U.S.?
Yes, But China Starts Out Significantly Behind the U.S.
Yes, But a Moderately Long Lead Time Exists
Yes: Rejects World Run by Capitalists & Democrats
Is China
Dissatisfied?
Yes: Demands Prestige (or its “Place in the Sun”)
Yes: Supports Revolutionary Forces Abroad
No: Not Territorially Expansionist
No: Increasingly Integrated in International System
No: Needs Investment, Trade, and Technology
Source: U.S. Embassy in China, Trade & Investment Briefing
Taiwan Singapore
USA
Japan
Hong Kong
Other
Sources of U.S.-China Conflict:
• Trade
• Human Rights
• Taiwan
Sources of U.S.-China Conflict:
Trade
• Growing U.S. Trade Deficit With China
1999: U.S. Exports to China: $13.12
1999: U.S. Imports From China: $87.78
• Will Chinese Membership in the WTO Lessen Conflict?
a) Regime Will Encourage China to Cooperate
b) WTO is Impartial Monitor
c) Concessions are to a Third Party
d) Keeps Conflict from Spreading
Sources of U.S.-China Conflict:
Human Rights
• Tiananmen Square (June 1989) & Response
• Chinese Perspective: Question of Sovereignty
• American Perspective: Moral Obligation
-- Idealism
-- President Carter: Shift in U.S. Policy
-- New International Norm: Protecting Human Rights
Sources of U.S.-China Conflict:
Taiwan
• Legacy of Civil War & 1949 Communist Victory
• Korean War Links U.S. to Defense of Taiwan
• Series of “Taiwan Straits Crises” During the Cold War
• U.S. Establishes Bi-Lateral Relations with PRC in 1979
• Recent Democratization of Taiwan
• Military and Economic Costs of a Chinese Invasion
• Can the U.S. Deter China in Any Way?
Regional Stability:
China’s Relations with its Neighbors
• Long History of Conflict
• 1980’s: Chinese Cuts in Defense Spending
• 1990’s: Defense Build Up Begins
a) Reorder Defense Focus
b) Impact of the Persian Gulf War
c) Typical Patter for a Developing Country
d) Buy Off the Military
• Response to Buildup: Private Alarm & Public Appeasement
• China’s Biggest Fear: A Re-Armed Japan
A Comment on the Build-Up
• In Percentage Terms, the Build-Up is Alarming
• But Percentages can be Misleading
GDP
(U.S.$t)
U.S.
China
8.5
4.4
Defense
Spending
(U.S.$b)
267
36
Defense
as a %
of GDP
3%
1%
1998 Estimates from CIA Fact Book; CIA states that official Chinese Defense Spending is $12b; IISS estimates it at $36b
Will China Become A Democracy?
• Tiananmen Square 1989
• General Hypothesis:
Economic Development ---(+)---> Political Development
• Optimists:
-- Seeds of Democracy Have Been Planted
• Pessimists:
a) Low GNP per Capita
b) Exchange Economic Rewards for Political Silence
c) Peasants are Conservative Majority
Conclusions
• Tremendous Social & Economic Change in China
• Important Implications for the Distribution of Power
• Navigating Will Be Difficult But Not Impossible