Transcript Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Slides for Communicating IPCC
IPCC Working Group III
Summary For
Policymakers:
Mitigation of Climate
Change
May 4, 2007
www.ucsusa.org
Figure: Courtesy of IPCC
The Call to Immediate Action
Options for Reducing Emissions
Economic Considerations
Roles of Developed and Developing
Countries
Policy Structures
•Global emissions will
increase 25-90% by 2030
(compared to 2000
levels), unless we take
immediate action.
Source: IPCC Climate Change 2007: Mitigation of Climate Change—SPM
•If the world reduces emissions of heat trapping
gases to 50% to 85% of 2000 levels by mid century,
we could prevent dangerous warming by limiting
temperature increase to about 2°C above preindustrial levels.
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
The Call to Immediate Action
Options for Reducing Emissions
Economic Considerations
Roles of Developed and Developing
Countries
Policy Structures
The good news is that there are plenty of currently
available and affordable (“low-hanging fruit”)
technologies and policies that can level off and even
reduce global warming emissions.
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
Renewable energy is a win-win-win. Besides
fighting global warming, renewables create jobs,
enhance energy security, and clean the air.
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
Technology exists today to begin reducing
emissions from cars, trucks, and other vehicles,
which contribute a major share of global warming
pollution. Growth in the sector will make net
reductions challenging, but vitally important.
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
It is both cheaper and faster to improve energy
efficiency to meet growing demand than to build
typical power plants.
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
•Bio-fuels have the potential to play a role in
reducing global warming emissions from the
transportation sector, especially as high fossil fuel
prices make these fuels more cost-competitive.
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
•Dirty fuels will also become more cost-effective
when fossil fuel prices rise. Liquid coal, synthetic
fuels and other high-carbon oil sources will lead to
significant increases in global warming emissions.
The high costs to mitigate climate change impact of
carbon-laden fuels must be considered up front.
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
The IPCC mentions that nuclear power is one option
for achieving emission reductions. However, they
note that constraints remain due to safety, weapons
proliferation and waste disposal concerns.
From: U.S. Department of Labor, Occupational Safety & Health Administration
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
The Call to Immediate Action
Options for Reducing Emissions
Economic Considerations
Roles of Developed and Developing
Countries
Policy Structures
The costs of addressing global warming could be
much smaller than the costs of inaction.
o Based on Table SPM.4 (p.15), for trajectories towards
stabilization levels between 445 and 535 ppmv CO2eq costs
are lower than 3% global GDP loss, i.e. the reduction of
average annual GDP growth rates is less than 0.12%.
o This refers to loss in GDP in 2030 compared to the
baseline, i.e. in 2030 the growth in GDP would be 3% less
with mitigation costs than without them.
o From table SPM.6 (p. 26), in 2050, GDP loss would be
lower than 5.5% and the reduction of average annual GDP
growth rates is less than 0.12%.
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
The Call to Immediate Action
Options for Reducing Emissions
Economic Considerations
Roles of Developed and Developing
Countries
Policy Structures
Emissions from some developing countries are
growing rapidly, and curtailing them will need to be
part of the solution.
However, the U.S. and other developed countries
bear a historical responsibility for most of the
emissions in the atmosphere
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
Currently, they still have a much higher per capita
emissions than developing countries and
developing countries have much lower incomes and
capacities to undertake mitigation and adaptation
activities.
Therefore, the U.S. and other developed nations
must lead the world in reducing emissions.
From: United Visual Artists
From: City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council, UK
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
An additional way developing nations can help fight
global warming is by slowing emissions from
tropical deforestation, which currently amount to
about 20% of total global emissions.
From: Greenpeace
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
•Unfortunately, a certain amount of warming is
already unavoidable due to past emissions (WG2
SPM). As the WG 1 and 2 SPMs made clear,
developing countries will face a disproportionate
burden of the costs of climate change. Investments
for climate adaptation must be an integral part of
international climate change policy.
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
•The WG3 report also highlights the importance of
international cooperation in tackling the challenge of
global warming.
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
The Call to Immediate Action
Options for Reducing Emissions
Economic Considerations
Roles of Developed and Developing
Countries
Policy Structures
Standards, mandates and regulations can help
ensure that we achieve the emission reductions
needed to prevent dangerous warming.
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
•Carbon taxes and marketable carbon permits are
cost-effective ways to reduce global warming
pollution, especially if revenues generated are used
to invest in clean technologies and replace existing
carbon-inducing tax schemes. However, carbon
taxes alone cannot guarantee emission reductions.
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
Voluntary programs, while they have some benefits,
are not enough on their own to ensure emission
reductions below business as usual levels.
Source: IPCC 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability—SPM
UCS Resources on IPCC AR4
IPCC Background
www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/the-ipcc.html
Powerpoint presentations, web seminars, and
highlight brochures
http://www.ucsusa.org/ssi/ipcc
Regional Climate Impacts
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/region
al-effects-of-global.html
Questions: [email protected]
THANK YOU!
U.S. Global Warming Policy Solutions
We need a comprehensive approach that
ensures needed emission reductions and
spurs clean energy technology deployment.
Three Critical Federal Policies:
Establish a mandatory policy that ensures
emissions reductions of at least 80% below
2000 levels by 2050.
Establish a strong Renewable Electricity
Standard.
Increase Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards and
low-carbon fuels for cars and light trucks.
Long Term Emission Reduction Targets
 Must stabilize atmospheric carbon
concentrations at 450 parts per million to
avoid worst effects of global warming.
 Means cutting global emissions in half by
2050, more in U.S.
 Bills introduced by Senator Sanders (IVT) and Rep. Waxman (D-CA) would
reduce U.S. emissions to 80 percent below
1990 levels by 2050.
 Both bills call for a greater reliance on
clean, renewable energy sources,
improved energy efficiency, and clean
cars.
Alden Meyer (center,
second row), director of
strategy and policy at
UCS, applauds at the
introduction of the Senate
bill last session.
Other Leaders Supporting 80% Target
80% target is
consistent with
those announced by
British Prime
Minister Tony
\
Blair, California
Governor Arnold
Schwarzenegger,
New Mexico
Governor Bill
Richardson, and six
Northeastern states.
UCS’s Peter Frumhoff
stands to the left of
Governor Schwarzenegger
as he commits to the 80
percent reduction target that
was later passed as AB 32.
Growing Support for 80% Target
Bernard Sanders (I-VT) Global Warming Pollution
Reduction Act (S.309): 12 Cosponsors
Boxer (D-CA)
Akaka (D-HI)
Dodd (D-CT)
Feingold (D-WI)
Inouye (D-HI)
Kennedy (D-MA)
Lautenberg (D-NJ)
Leahy (D-VT)
Menendez (D-NJ)
Reed (D-RI)
Whitehouse (D-RI)
Waxman Safe Climate Act (HR 1590):
137 Cosponsors
Courtney, Joe [CT-2]
Crowley, Joseph [NY-7]
Cummings, Elijah E. [MD7]
Davis, Susan A. [CA-53]
DeFazio, Peter A. [OR-4]
Inslee, Jay [WA-1]
Israel, Steve [NY-2]
Matsui, Doris O. [CA-5]
McCollum, Betty [MN-4]
Schwartz, Allyson Y. [PA-13]
Scott, Robert C. [VA-3]
Jackson, Jesse L., Jr. [IL-2]
Jackson-Lee, Sheila [TX-18]
Jefferson, William J. [LA-2]
Johnson, Eddie Bernice [TXDeGette, Diana [CO-1]
30]
Delahunt, William D. [MA- Johnson, Henry C. "Hank," Jr.
10]
[GA-4]
Jones, Stephanie Tubbs [OHDeLauro, Rosa L. [CT-3]
11]
Dicks, Norman D. [WA-6] Kagen, Steve, M.D. [WI-8]
McDermott, Jim [WA-7]
McGovern, James P. [MA-3]
McNerney, Jerry [CA-11]
Serrano, Jose E. [NY-16]
Sestak, Joe [PA-7]
Shays, Christopher [CT-4]
Doggett, Lloyd [TX-25]
Ellison, Keith [MN-5]
Emanuel, Rahm [IL-5]
Kennedy, Patrick J. [RI-1]
Kind, Ron [WI-3]
Klein, Ron [FL-22]
Engel, Eliot L. [NY-17]
Eshoo, Anna G. [CA-14]
Farr, Sam [CA-17]
Fattah, Chaka [PA-2]
Filner, Bob [CA-51]
Kucinich, Dennis J. [OH-10]
Langevin, James R. [RI-2]
Pascrell, Bill, Jr. [NJ-8]
Payne, Donald M. [NJ-10]
Rangel, Charles B. [NY-15]
Frank, Barney [MA-4]
Grijalva, Raul M. [AZ-7]
Lantos, Tom [CA-12]
Larsen, Rick [WA-2]
Solis, Hilda L. [CA-32]
Stark, Fortney Pete [CA-13]
Tauscher, Ellen O. [CA-10]
Thompson, Bennie G. [MSMoran, James P. [VA-8]
2]
Murphy, Christopher S. [CT-5] Thompson, Mike [CA-1]
Murphy, Patrick J. [PA-8]
Tierney, John F. [MA-6]
Nadler, Jerrold [NY-8]
Towns, Edolphus [NY-10]
Napolitano, Grace F. [CA-38] Van Hollen, Chris [MD-8]
Wasserman Schultz, Debbie
Neal, Richard E. [MA-2]
[FL-20]
Obey, David R. [WI-7]
Waters, Maxine [CA-35]
McNulty, Michael R. [NY-21] Shea-Porter, Carol [NH-1]
Meehan, Martin T. [MA-5]
Sherman, Brad [CA-27]
Meek, Kendrick B. [FL-17]
Michaud, Michael H. [ME-2]
Millender-McDonald, Juanita
[CA-37]
Miller, George [CA-7]
Moore, Gwen [WI-4]
Sires, Albio [NJ-13]
Smith, Adam [WA-9]
Renewable Electricity Standard:
Campaign History
Senate has thrice
passed a Renewable
Electricity Standard
(RES) requiring
utilities to obtain 10
percent of their
electricity from
renewable energy
sources such as wind,
solar, and bioenergy by
2020.
Benefits of an RES
A 2004 UCS analysis found that a strong
20% by 2020 RES would:
– Reduce global warming pollution by 15
percent from business as usual.
– Create billions in new farm income.
– Save consumers tens of billions of dollars.
– Create hundreds of thousands of jobs.
House: Reps Tom Udall (D-NM) and Todd
Platts (R-PA): 20% by 2020 RES (HR 969)
HR 969 Currently has 73 Cosponsors:
Allen, Thomas H. [ME-1] Engel, Eliot L. [NY-17]
Andrews, Robert E. [NJ-1] Eshoo, Anna G. [CA-14]
Baldwin, Tammy [WI-2]
Bean, Melissa L. [IL-8]
Fattah, Chaka [PA-2]
Lipinski, Daniel [IL-3]
Loebsack, David [IA-2]
Sanchez, Loretta [CA-47]
Schiff, Adam B. [CA-29]
Schwartz, Allyson Y. [PA13]
Lofgren, Zoe [CA-16]
Maloney, Carolyn B. [NYFrank, Barney [MA-4]
14]
Serrano, Jose E. [NY-16]
Rep Markey, Edward J.
Gilchrest, Wayne T. [MD-1] [MA-7]
Sestak, Joe [PA-7]
Berkley, Shelley [NV-1]
Berman, Howard L. [CA28]
Grijalva, Raul M. [AZ-7]
Matsui, Doris O. [CA-5]
Shea-Porter, Carol [NH-1]
Rep Blumenauer, Earl
Rep McCollum, Betty [MN[OR-3]
Harman, Jane [CA-36]
4]
Sherman, Brad [CA-27]
Hinchey, Maurice D. [NYBrady, Robert A. [PA-1] 22]
McDermott, Jim [WA-7] Smith, Adam [WA-9]
Capps, Lois [CA-23]
Hodes, Paul W. [NH-2]
McNerney, Jerry [CA-11] Solis, Hilda L. [CA-32]
Carney, Christopher P.
McNulty, Michael R. [NY- Stark, Fortney Pete [CA[PA-10]
Holt, Rush D. [NJ-12]
21]
13]
Carson, Julia [IN-7]
Israel, Steve [NY-2]
Moran, James P. [VA-8]
Tierney, John F. [MA-6]
Johnson, Henry C. "Hank,"
Cohen, Steve [TN-9]
Jr. [GA-4]
Murphy, Patrick J. [PA-8] Udall, Mark [CO-2]
Napolitano, Grace F. [CA-
Senate RES Prospects
Senator Jeff Bingman
(D-NM) is Chair of the
Energy Committee and
a long-time RES
champion. He will
work to pass a stong
15% standard this
session.
Reducing Vehicle Emissions: Senate
Diane Feinstein (D-CA)Ten-in-Ten Act (S. 357):
Increases fuel economy to 37 mpg by 2017. 12
Cosponsors:
•Akaka, Daniel K. (D-HI)
•Boxer, Barbara (D-CA)
•Cantwell, Maria (D-WA)
•Dodd, Christopher J. (D-CT)
•Inouye, Daniel K. (D-HI)
•Lautenberg, Frank R. (D-NJ)
•Lieberman, Joseph I. (D-CT)
•Menendez, Robert (D-NJ)
•Nelson, Bill (D-FL)
•Reed, Jack (D-RI)
•Sanders, Bernard (D-VT)
•Snowe, Olympia J. (D-ME)
Other senators have introduced or cosponsored
fuel economy bills, including several former
CAFE opponents such as Senator Ted Stevens (RAK), Senator Joseph Biden (D-DE) and Senator
Byron Dorgan (D-ND).
Reducing Vehicle Emissions: House
Ed Markey (D-MA)- Todd Platts (R-PA)
Fuel Economy Reform Act (HR 1506):
Increases fuel economy to 37 mpg by 2017.
Currently has 113 cosponsors. Original
cosponsors include Hilda Solis (D-CA),
Mike Castle (R-DE), and Bill Young (R-FL)
to introduce H.R. 1506, the Fuel Economy
Reform Act.
Ed Markey
Todd Platts
Will Congress Pass Comprehensive
Climate Policy This Session?
Polling shows that energy security is among top
interests of U.S. voters, and global warming is a
growing concern.
Congressional leaders are emerging from both
parties, and not just the usual suspects.
BUT, Bush administration has yet to support
mandatory emission reductions.
Looking Ahead:
2008 Presidential Election
Need to ensure that ALL candidates of ALL parties
have a plan to address global warming.
Renewable Fuels
Biofuels continue to receive broad support, with early action
likely to focus on increasing the renewable fuel standard (RFS).
UCS is working with both the environmental community and
agricultural representatives to ensure that global warming and
other sustainability criteria are considered as part of any effort
to expand biofuels use.
Although biofuels can be an important tool to help reduce our
dependence on oil, if not carefully managed biofuels could have
unintended consequences.
By building support within the agriculture community for lowcarbon renewable fuels and for smart management practices, we
can help to ensure that the promise of biofuels is met.
Renewable Fuel Standard
Several legislative proposals to increase the Renewable Fuel
Standard (RFS) have been introduced, with the Senate likely to
act first on Senator Bingaman's (D-NM) proposal to raise the
annual requirement for renewable fuels from 7.5 billion gallons
to 36 billion gallons.
Unfortunately, the Senator's bill contains few protections for the
environment, and no requirement that biofuels reduce global
warming emissions.
Although the most contentious issue is likely to be attempts to
add liquid coal fuel to the standard, we are working with our
champions to add in global warming and sustainability
standards.
Low Carbon Fuel Standard
Senator Feinstein (D-CA), along with Senators Collins and
Snowe (both R-ME), introduced a bill that would require a
reduction in global warming emissions from fuels, by
implementing a federal low carbon fuel standard like the
one recently adopted in California.
This would require fuel suppliers beginning in 2015 to
increase the percentage of low-carbon fuels – biodiesel,
ethanol, hydrogen, electricity, and others – in the motor
vehicle fuel supply with a goal of reducing emissions from
motor vehicle fuels by 10 percent below projected levels by
2030. The bill also includes a mandate to reduce tailpipe
emissions 30 percent below 2002 levels by 2016.
We will continue to work with Senator Feinstein and others
to ensure that our fuel policies maximize reductions in
global warming pollution.
UCS Resources on IPCC AR4
IPCC Background
www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/the-ipcc.html
Powerpoint presentations, web seminars, and
highlight brochures
http://www.ucsusa.org/ssi/ipcc
Regional Climate Impacts
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/science/regional-effects-of-global.html
Questions: [email protected]