Transcript 2009 Job Summit John Whitehead, Secretary to the Treasury

2009 Job Summit
John Whitehead, Secretary to the Treasury
© The Treasury
Objectives
• To get out of recession as quickly as
possible
• To limit the impact on people
• For New Zealand to be better off long-term
and well placed to take advantage of world
recovery
2
© The Treasury
3
Italy
Mexico
Portugal
New Zealand
Switzerland
Canada
Australia
Austria
Belgium
France
OECD
Japan
United States
United Kingdom
Finland
Ireland
Iceland
Poland
Czech Republic
Productivity growth
Growth in GDP per capita 2001-2006
4
3
2
1
0
© The Treasury
Regulation
1998
2007
United Kingdom
United States
United States
United Kingdom
Canada
Canada
4th
New Zealand
4
Iceland
Australia
Netherlands
Denmark
Denmark
Ireland
Spain
Netherlands
Japan
Iceland
Norway
Norway
Finland
Sweden
Australia
Germany
New Zealand
Finland
Switzerland
Belgium
Sweden
Japan
Germany
Austria
Italy
Portugal
Austria
Hungary
Hungary
Korea
Belgium
Mexico
France
Switzerland
Korea
0
1
2
3
12th
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
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Workforce - Education
Employed
Post School
Qualification 57%
Unemployed
No Qualification
20%
No Qualification
23%
Post School
Qualification
38%
School
Qualification
23%
School
Qualification 29%
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Workforce - Ethnicity
Employed
Pacific 4%
Maori 10%
Unemployed
Pacific 8%
Other 11%
Maori 19%
Other 18%
Pakeha 75%
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Pakeha 55%
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Operating Balance
OBEGAL to GDP
% GDP
5%
4%
3%
2%
Historical
Years
1%
Forecast
Years
Projected
Years
0%
-1%
-2%
-3%
-4%
-5%
93/94
95/96
97/98
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
13/14
15/16
17/18
19/20
21/22
Fiscal Year
7
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Debt
GSID to GDP
% GDP
80%
Historical
Years
Forecast
Years
Projected
Years
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
93/94
95/96
97/98
99/00
01/02
03/04
05/06
07/08
09/10
11/12
13/14
15/16
17/18
19/20
21/22
Fiscal Year
8
© The Treasury
Demographics
Ratio of those aged 65+ to 15-64
Ratio to population aged 15-64
0.6
2009
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
Older (65+)
Projection
0.0
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
2080
2100
Source: Statistics New Zealand
9
© The Treasury
Spending changes – 2008 to 2050
GDP %
16
2008
2050
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
NZ Super
Health
Finance costs
Source: New Zealand long-term fiscal model
10
© The Treasury
The way forward
Do prepare
for the
future –
skills and
innovation
11
Do protect
the
vulnerable –
not the
status quo
Don’t pass
on a burden
of debt
© The Treasury
2009 Job Summit
John Whitehead, Secretary to the Treasury
© The Treasury