Transcript Resource investment – major projects

Challenges and opportunities for
Australia over the next decade
Dr Martin Parkinson
Secretary to the Treasury
1
Real GDP growth
6
Per cent
Per cent
20-year average
4
Projections
Forecasts
5
6
5
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
1993-94
1997-98
2001-02
2005-06
2009-10
2013-14
0
2017-18
Source: ABS cat. no. 5206.0 and Treasury.
2
Mining investment and capital stock
120
$billion (2011-12 prices)
Index (2002-03=100)
Mining investment (LHS)
100
350
300
250
80
200
60
150
Mining capital stock (RHS)
40
100
20
0
Jun-1963
50
Jun-1973
Jun-1983
Jun-1993
Jun-2003
0
Jun-2013
Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0 and Treasury.
3
Contributions to real GDP growth
4
Percentage points
Percentage points
Projections
Forecasts
3
3
GDP growth
2
Non-resources
expenditure
Resources
expenditure
4
2
1
1
0
0
-1
Net resources investment
2011-12
2012-13
Resources exports
2013-14
2014-15
Note: Assumes that mining investment has an import share of 50 per cent.
Source: ABS cat. no. 5204.0, 5206.0, and 5302.0, BREE and Treasury.
-1
2015-16
2016-17
2017-18
4
Contributions to annual per capita
income growth
4
Percentage points contribution, annual average
Percentage points contribution, annual average
Productivity growth to
achieve long run average
income growth
3
4
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
1960s
Net foreign income
1970s
1980s
Labour utilisation
1990s
Labour productivity
2000 to 2013
Terms of trade
2013 to 2025
Per capita income
Note: Contributions
to income
growth
in the
period2013
2013to
to2025
2025 are
thethe
forecasts
andand
projections
detailed
in the in
2014-15
Note: Contributions
to income
growth
in the
period
are consistent
consistentwith
with
forecasts
projections
detailed
Budget Statement
Budget.
Income
refers
to
gross
national
income.
2. The hatched area represents the additional labour productivity growth required to achieve long run average growth in real gross national
Source:
ABSABS
5204.0
and Treasury.
income.
Source:
5204.0
and Treasury.
Tax structure
1950-51
2013-14
2024-25
Personal income tax
Company income tax
Personal income tax
Company income tax
Personal income tax
Company income tax
Other
Indirect tax
Indirect tax (ex GST)
GST
Indirect tax (ex GST)
GST
Source: RBA statistics, Budget 2014-15 and Treasury estimates.
6
Personal income tax rates and the effects
of fiscal drag
200
$thousands
$thousands
180
200
180
Average full-time employee
hits 2nd highest tax bracket
(2015-16)
160
160
140
140
120
120
100
Average ordinary full time
earnings
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
20
20
0
1994-95
0
1998-99
2002-03
First tax threshold
2006-07
1st tax rate
2010-11
2014-15
2nd tax rate
2018-19
2022-23
3rd tax rate
Note: Based on Budget 2014-15 parameters.
7