Transcript Economic Principles & Problems of Population Growth

Economic Principles & Problems
of Population Growth
Derric B. Jacobs
ECON539: Public Policy Analysis
Winter 2008
International Policy Questions:
• Should The International Community be
Concerned about global population growth?
• What are the problems and issues associated
with global population growth?
• What should the international community do
about global population growth?
National Policy Questions:
• Should a nation be concerned with rapid
population growth within and abroad?
• What is the traditional view of population
growth from an economic position?
• How dose a nation experiencing rapid growth
coupe and what can they do?
Background
• Thomas Malthus:
– 1766- 1834
– Demographer and
Political Economist
– Essay on Principles of
Population (1796).
– Populations would grow
past their resources.
Jared Diamond
Collapse, How Societies Choose to
Fail or Succeed (2006)
• Historical perspectives on social collapses and
current social conflicts.
• Causations are underlined in population
growth and interactions with the environment
and international relations.
– Historical: Mayans and Easter Island
– Current: Rwanda and Cambodia
– Future: China, India, and the U.S.?
World Populations and Consumptive
Behaviors
• World population is at more than 6.5 Billion
and doubled between 1959 & 1999.
• Projection by 2050 is more than 9 Billion.
• Most consumptive nation is the U.S. with
China and India following.
Neo-Classical Economic Perspectives
on Population Growth
• Population growth has a positive relationship
with economic growth and the maintenance of
a healthy economy.
• Most prevalent since the 1980’s with shifts in
international policies in addressing population
growth.
The World Bank
• Prior to 1981:
– President: Robert McNamara
– “…after thermonuclear war, rapid population growth was
perhaps the perhaps the greatest threat to mankind.”
• After his retirement, economist dominated institution
changed thought and policy toward population growth.
• Current trend is in a re-evaluation of population growth
factors and policy- 2007 publication of Population Issues
in the 21st Century.
The U.S. and Aid
• Currently the U.S. invests in aid at a rate of
less than 3% which is equal to 1/25,000 of
GDP.
• Current ideological trends in the Fed.
Government are hostile to family planning in
both national policy and international (Grant,
2000).
Population Reference Bureau Study
1975- 2004 (2007)
• Study finds that population growth rates and
economic growth in GDP are negatively
correlated.
Problems for the International
Community
• Many of the problems associated with
population growth are not contained within the
boarders of a select nation.
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Pollution and Waste
Oceanic Fish Catch
Infectious Disease
Conflicts
Migration
Problems for Nations
• Nations compile
problems associated
with population growth
from other nations as
well as their own.
– Conflict
– Freshwater
– Grain production & meat
production
– Biodiversity Loss
– Energy
– Oceanic Fish Catch
– Infectious Disease
– Loss of cropland &
Forests
– Housing & Urbanization
– Jobs
– Natural resources
– Education & Income
Migration
• Migration is a reflection of low economic
development and an individuals seeking for better
opportunity and livelihood.
• Many less developed nations encourage emigration to
deal with their own growth.
• Many migrants are the more educated and those that
can afford to migrate resulting in net loss of educated
and skilled citizens and resulting in a growth in the
destination resulting in an increase in competition.
What Can Nations Do?
• Advanced economic nations can help
developing nations with technologies and
resources which include healthcare and health
education as well as education for skills and
employment.
• Developing nations can request for funds and
resources from the international community.
• Discourage the migration of skilled and
educated citizens to developed nations
Population Reference Bureau (2007)
• Study finds that increased fertility rates and
education are negatively correlated.
Population Reference Bureau
• Study finds that increased fertility rates
increase the percentage of citizens living in
poverty.
Piecing it Together
• If investment in education for skilled workers
decreases poverty, and a decrease in poverty
decreases fertility rates and decreased fertility
rates increases the likelihood of increases in
education, and we are right back to where we
started.
Statement by the UN: Population,
Environment and Poverty Eradication
for Sustainable Developmet (2002)
• The condition of women and girls, wherever they lack a secure
base, whether in education, information, health, reproductive
rights, equity and resources are of first concern. Empowering
women as full partners in sustainable development is perhaps
the surest strategy to combat poverty; environmental
degradation; secure democracy; and find lasting harmony in
the global human condition. This must start with providing
choices, including those of environmental protection and
family size.
Conclusion
• Global and national population growths effect us all.
• Without aid from more economically advanced
nations and the international community, the
problems associated with population growth will
continue
• The international and national policies toward
population growth must be adjusted.
• The most significant changes needed are social and
political, the need to increase open dialogue and
further research is pertinent.