Transcript Climate Volatility and the Poor - Tanzania -

Introduction:
Climate Volatility and the Poor in
Southern and Eastern Africa
Will Martin
Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
24 February, 2010
Supported by the Trust Fund for Environmentally and
Socially Sustainable Development
Why are we concerned?
• The poor in Africa are perhaps the most
vulnerable to climate change
What are the goals of this project?
• Understand the likely impacts on Tanzania
– Through climate change, crop responses, economic
impacts, household responses
• Consider policy responses to promote resilience
Interdisciplinary Research is Challenging!
Welcome
So you need great
collaborators!
4
Carbon
Emissions
Human
Systems
Impacts
Natural
Systems
Policy Responses
Adaptation
Financing
Emissions
Reduction
Climate Science Debate
Detection:
- Little doubt about global
warming – despite recent cold
weather in N. Hemisphere
- Rise in atmospheric CO2 also
unambiguous, as are man-made
contributions
Attribution:
-Much more complex
- Making the connection from
rising GHG concentrations to
global warming/climate change
requires a “counterfactual”
experiment: what would the
temperature be in absence add’l
GHGs?
- Hence need for climate models
Not dissimilar to the problem faced by
economists who cannot conduct controlled
experiments. E.g., what was the impact of the
Uruguay Round on Tanzania?
To measure impact of increased GHG releases on climate,
calibrate model to track current climate with observed GHG,
then run counterfactual without human GHG emissions:
What lessons can we learn?
Source: IPCC, 2007
IPCC 2007: Key Points Africa
• Among most vulnerable continents to climate change
and climate variability
– aggravated by the interaction of ‘multiple stresses’,
occurring at various levels, and low adaptive capacity.
• IPCC suggested that agricultural production and food
security may be severely compromised
– Crop yields likely to fall
World Bank Research
• World Development Report 2010
– 2°C warming by 2050=> 4-5% reduction in annual income per
capita in Africa & S. Asia, vs global avg. GDP drop of 1%
• Economics of Adaptation to Climate Change:
– Estimated cost between 2010-50 of adapting to ~2°C warmer
world by 2050 = USD 75-100 billion a year
– 7 country case studies, incl Ghana, Ethiopia, & Mozambique
• Development Prospects Group
– Emission controls, border tax adjustments, agricultural
productivity, distributional impacts
• Numerous other projects
Source: WDR, 2010
Key Points Tanzania
• IPCC (2007) focuses on water sector
vulnerability
– Interannual lake-level fluctuations and lake-level
volatility owing to periods of intense droughts
followed by extreme rainfall events especially in
late 1997 (e.g., in Lakes Tanganyika, Victoria and
Turkana).
– Mt. Kilimanjaro (see figure)
Source: IPCC, 2007
Knowledge Gaps: Climate Volatility & Poverty
• Lobell et al (2008) and Battisti and Naylor (2009)
– Extreme climate events will reduce agricultural output in the
tropics & reduce food security in developing countries.
– Food insecurity driven by declines in food production
• Primarily rain-fed agriculture makes Tanzania especially
vulnerable
– only 2 percent of arable land has irrigation facilities
• Majority of the poor live in rural areas where agriculture
is the dominant economic activity
– Poor consumers are very vulnerable to food price rises
• Few Tanzania-focused analyses of climate impacts on
economy or poverty
How does this project contribute
to filling knowledge gaps?
• Tanzania focus
• Focus on climate volatility & extremes
• Integrated analytical framework: climate
volatility-crop modeling-economic simulation
• High resolution climate modeling for Africa
• Statistical & simulation based crop response
• Poverty impacts at global, national, &
subnational levels
Percentage Change in Intensity of 1 in 30 Year
Extreme Dry Spell, 1971-2001 vs 2070-99
Source: Diffenbaugh, forthcoming
Precipitation: Averages & Trends
Source: Rowhani et al
Analytical Framework
STATISTICAL ESTIMATION
OF CROP YIELDS
CLIMATE ANALYSIS
temperature &
precipitation,
from General
Circulation
Models
GRAIN YIELD PREDICTIONS
NATIONAL ECONOMIC
SIMULATION MODEL
Predicted changes in
crop output, current +
future climate
Parallel biophysical
simulation
modeling
GLOBAL ECONOMIC
SIMULATION MODEL
changes in prices & wages
from simulation results
HOUSEHOLD MODEL
ECONOMIC IMPACTS
POVERTY IMPACTS
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State of Play
• Fundamental analyses completed
– Survey of the relevant literature
– Projections of changes in climate & volatility
– Estimated crop responses to climate change
– Impacts on poverty world wide & in Tanzania
– Regional impacts on poverty within Tanzania
• Your feedback and input sought
– Especially on how best to contribute to policy
Today’s Presentations
1. Tom Hertel: Review of the science and economics
of climate change, agriculture and poverty
2. Syud Amer Ahmed: Global analyses of climate
volatility & poverty, adaptation potential of trade
3. Channing Arndt: Impacts of climate change at the
regional level in Tanzania