Transcript Latin Amneran Challenges, Brookings, November 2014

NS3040
Winter Term 2015
Latin American Challenges
Overview
• Guillermo Ortiz, The Challenges to Achieving Sustainable
Growth in Latin America, Brookings, November 2014
• Main points
• Initial economic recovery after the 2008-09 global
recession has been disappointing
• After strong growth before the crisis the pace of growth
has slowed to rates considerably in recent years
• Over time the region’s share of world GDP has dropped
to 8.6% down from 11.4% in the 1980s
• Fundamental for the region to undergo a supply-side
structural reform agenda and achieve a sustainable path
of higher growth rates similar to those right before the
crisis
2
% World GDP (ppp)
3
Progress in Last Decade I
• Improvements in Latin America During Last Decade
• Many positive signs in recent years
• From 1990-1995 average annual inflation rate in LA over
200%
• Average inflation since 2010 around 6%
• Major improvements in debt structure and balance of
payments
• Total public sector debt peaked at 62% GDP in 2003
• Declined to around 37% by 2012
• Similar pattern for external sovereign debt
• Reserve accumulation has increased significantly
• Nine largest economies accumulated equivalent of 16% of GDP
in international reserves during 2003-2011
4
Progress in Last Decade II
5
Progress in Last Decade III
• Means some of the traditional components that hurt Latin
America in the past
• Large current account deficits and
• Huge exposure to sudden stops have substantially improved
over the last eight years
• As a result balance sheets of most Latin American
countries much stronger compared to a decade ago
• Reflected in spreads of Latin American Debt
• About half of what they were a decade ago
• Significant milestone for region
• For first time in very long time able to implement strong
countercyclical monetary and fiscal polices in response
to extreme external shocks
6
Progress in Last Decade IV
7
Progress in Last Decade V
• Macroeconomic progress largely unprecedented and in
start contrast to the 1990s
• In the 1990s
• High levels of indebtedness
• Currency mismatches
• Poorly capitalized financial systems
• Tended to amplify external shocks and limit
countercyclical policy intervention
• As a result growth performance from 2003 to 2013 has
been substantially better in most countries
• The average growth rate of 4% per year almost twice the
rate in the 1980s and 1990s
8
Progress in Last Decade VI
9
Reasons for Progress I
• Heterogeneity and Reasons Behind Latin America’s
Improvements
• Major economies of Latin America with exception of
Mexico are commodity exporters (57% of total exports)
• Improvements in Latin America over last decade were to
a great extent due to very favorable external condition
• Increasing external demand led by advanced economies
and China created favorable terms of trade for most Latin
American countries
• After advanced countries relaxed their monetary policy
stance these countries became very attractive for large
capital inflows in search of higher yields
10
Reasons for Progress II
11
Reasons for Progress III
12
Reasons for Progress IV
• Domestically, labor accumulation played an important
role in output growth
• Factor accumulation accounted for 3.75% of annual GDP
growth in 2003-2012
• Capital accumulation from global capital inflows into
financially integrated commodity exporters also played a
part.
• Today – external conditions are no longer as supportive
as they used to be
• Episodes of renewed volatility have exposed certain
vulnerabilities in Latin America
13
Challenges Ahead I
• The New World
• In recent years Latin America has experienced a rather
complex cycle
• Global economic conditions are not as favorable as they
used to be
• Means that commodity prices are declining
• The reduction in monetary stimulus measures in some of
the developed economies is reversing the flow of money
Latin America attracted
• Many Latin American economies facing a cycle of lower
growth and higher inflation
• Particularly those that have followed unorthodox polices
and implemented no structural reforms
14
Challenges Ahead II
Problems
• Lower commodity prices will lead to lower government
revenues
• Public spending as a share of GDP has increased staidly
since the financial crisis even though revenue growth
has slowed
• At same time pressures on expenditure are growing
• Higher interest bills
• Critical infrastructure needs and
• Demands for better public services
• Some supply constraints are starting to arise
• Growth of physical capital expected to moderate as global
interest rates rise and commodity prices stabilize
• Contribution of labor will be constrained due to low
unemployment rates and an aging population
15
Challenges Ahead III
• In the longer term increasing growth will be a major
challenge
• Since 1980 Latin American income per capita relative to
the U.S. has decreased by around 20%
• During the same period developing Asia and the ASEAN5 economies have increased their level of income per
capita relative to the U.S. by 365% and 150% respectively
• Inter America Development bank found that total factor
productivity (TFP) is by far the most important
determinant of the income gap between regions and the
U.S.
• Significantly TFP in Latin America declined by around
30% relative to the U.S. between 1980 and 2007
• In emerging Asia TFP increased by about 20%
16
Challenges Ahead IV
17
Challenges Ahead V
• In Latin America a significant misallocation of resources
has caused low TFP
• IDB found just a gradual adjustment in the allocation of
resources to that of U.S. efficiency would have:
• Translated into a gain of 50-100 percent in TFP and
• An additional 1% of annual GDP growth
• Based on WEF data Latin America leads Central and
Eastern European countries in macroeconomic
environment and business sophistication.
• In terms of institutions, infrastructure, health and
education, labor and goods markets, financial sector
development, technological readiness, and innovation
lags these regions
18
Challenges Ahead VI
To rectify situation Latin America needs to implement
structural reforms
• Implies
• Strengthening the institutional framework to secure
property rights and eliminate corruption
• Reforms should be focused on
• developing infrastructure
• Promoting deeper and more efficient financial markets
• Increasing the quality of education
• Further developing labor market and
• Investing more in innovation and technology
• In short countries must maintain the macroeconomic and
financial stability achieved in past decade
• At same time press ahead with structural reforms
19
• Allow region to escape the middle income trap