Transcript III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and

The Challenges Brought By The Shortage
of Oil And Gas In China And Their Countermeasures
Pang Xiongqi, Meng Qingyang
Zhang Jun, Natori Mariko
China University of Petroleum in Beijing
Key Laboratory For Hydrocarbon Accumulation Mechanism,
Ministry of Education, PRC
Email：[email protected]
Tele: 86-010-89733346
Fax: 86-010-89733423
Mobile: 13701296729
Contents
I. Forward
II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil
and Gas Resources
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in
China and their Prediction
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas
in China and Their Countermeasures
Ⅵ. Conclusions
1. Brief Introduction of China
Lisbon, Portugal
★
Beijing, China
★
Location: Northern Hemisphere, Asia
Country land area: 9.6 million km2
Population: About 1.3 Billion
Foundation: in 1949, PRC
Nationalities: 56 (Mainly Han Nationality)
Open door policy: Since 1978
I. Forward
2. Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Exploration in China
③
②
Legends
①
① East area
② Middle area
③ West area
④ South China sea area
Oil and Gas Resources are Distributed in Four Areas: East, Middle, West and South China Sea
Brief Introduction of Oil and Gas Exploration in China (until the end of 2003) :
Total Amount：
Oil= 101 billion tones；
Proved：
Oil= 23.42 billion tones；Gas= 3.8695 trillion m3
Gas= 42 trillion m3
Proved Recoverable： Oil= 6.513 billion tones；Gas= 2.4646 trillion m3
Left Recoverable：
Oil= 2.381 billion tones；Gas=2.0894 trillion m3
I. Forward
3. Brief Introduction to China’s Shortage of Oil
490
Oil Production
Oil Consumption
420
360
310
260
222
162
170
190
200
220
240
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Unit: million tones
Comparison between Oil Production and Demand in China
(From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004)
I. Forward
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
3. Brief Introduction to China’s Shortage of Gas
3400
Gas Production
产量
2700
Gas Consumption
需求量
1800
1400
1000
265
265
2000年
500
720
1200
1200
1200
1000
420
2005年
2010年
2015年
2020年
2025年
2030年
Unit: hundred million cubic meters
Comparison between Gas Production and Demand in China
(From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004)
Contents
I. Forward
II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil
and Gas Resources
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in
China and their Prediction
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas
in China and Their Countermeasures
Ⅵ. Conclusions
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
GDP Increase Rate(%)
1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil
and gas resources
The GDP increases very fast in recent 20 years in China and
the average increase rate can reach 9% per year
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Brief introduction to economy growth in recent 20 years in China
(From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004)
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil
and gas resources
/economy increase rate
oil consumption increase rate
The increase of demand on oil and gas per year will
reach 0.65% with 1% increase of China’s GDP.
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
The relation between oil consumption increase and yearly
economy increase in China
(From China National Statistics Bureau, 2004)
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil
and gas resources
The increase rate of yearly oil
consumption in recent 10 years is five times
higher than that of 10 years before .
The oil consumption increase curve with time in China
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil
and gas resources
900
U.K
China
Japan
U.S.A
Yearly Oil
consumption of
China has reached 3
hundred million
tones and just next
to the U.S.A
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001
Yearly gas
consumption rate of
China is increasing
fast but relatively
still little comparing
with other developed
countries
Gas consumption
million tonnes oil equivalent)
Oil consumption(million tonnes)
1000
700
U.S.A
U.K
China
Japan
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
1. The fast growth of economy in China consumes a lot of oil
and gas resources
Oil consumption of China is 7.8％ of the consumption all over the world, while U.S.A is 25.3%.
Million barrels per day 2004
Oil & Gas Journal July
5th
l
1 km
l
2004
Australia uses 0.8
China
6.3
US
20.5
World
81
US 1 cubic km oil / year
Australia
China
United States
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
2. The oil consumption of China will keep growing with
the development of economy in the future
GDP(hundred million dollars)
The GDP growth rate will be averagely 7.5%~9% per year with personal
GDP reaching 2600~3100 dollars in the coming 10 years.
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1975
1985
1995
2005
2015
Forecast on economy increase of China in the coming 10 years
(Beijing Statistic information website, 2005)
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
2. The oil consumption of China will keep growing
with the development of economy in the future
Yearly demand (million tonnes)
450
400
Tsinghua
University
Zhang Rong
350
300
250
Mu Shuling
200
The oil demand of China in 2020
will be today’s 1.5 times and reach
4 hundred million tones
150
100
50
Mineral
Dept.
Average
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Forecast curves on oil demand by different scholars
of China in the coming 15 years
II. The Economy and Society Development of China Needs a Lot of
Oil and Gas Resources
2500
2000
The gas demand of China will be today’s 3.5 times
and reach 180 billion cubic meters in 2020.
Zhang Kang
1500
Mu Shuling
1000
500
Average
0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Yearly Demand
(hundred million cubic meters)
2. The oil consumption of China will keep growing with
the development of economy in the future
Forecast curves on gas demand by different scholars
of China in the coming 15 years
Contents
I. Forward
II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil
and Gas Resources
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in
China and their Prediction
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas
in China and Their Countermeasures
Ⅵ. Conclusions
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and
Their Prediction
Year
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Accumulated Accumulated
Yearly
Left
found
found
increase of
Geological
recoverable
geological recoverable recoverable
reserves/p
reserves
reserves
reserves
reserves
roduction
（108t）
8
8
8
（10 t）
（10 t）
（10 t）
71.4922
27.3631
0.7016
18.2164
17.2
73.9068
28.2873
0.9242
18.1316
18
76.4557
29.2629
0.9756
18.0885
17.8
82.2484
32.533
3.2701
20.3013
19.2
93.2744
35.7001
3.167
22.3255
19.5
116.1723
37.9323
1.9198
23.312
18.7
125.1811
39.3364
1.4264
23.4124
18
132.1743
41.0333
1.6969
23.7701
17.7
137.4164
42.2109
1.1776
23.5793
17.2
142.2609
41.9143
0.9992
21.9079
15.9
148.6561
43.2425
1.3282
21.855
15.8
154.0888
43.9483
1.1229
21.164
15.2
158.9784
44.9312
0.9809
20.7273
14.6
164.8273
48.0659
1.2782
22.422
15.6
169.8718
49.2847
1.1512
22.18
15.2
174.3001
50.9078
0.742
22.3125
15
181.5766
52.6027
1.2869
22.4345
14.3
190.6682
54.9943
1.8306
23.2217
14.5
197.7078
57.147
1.5952
23.7692
14.8
205.6493
59.3418
1.632
24.36
15.2
212.8956
60.9517
1.6099
24.5153
14.9
217.5896
62.0432
1.0915
23.7884
14.4
225.5917
63.397
1.3538
23.8737
14.1
234.2
65.1261
1.7291
23.81
14.0
1. Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas
Exploration in China ( until the end
of 2003):
Total amount：
oil= 101 billion tones；
gas= 42 trillion cubic meters
Accumulated discovered geological reserves：
oil= 23.42 billion tones；
gas= 3.87 trillion cubic meters
Accumulated discovered recoverable reserves：
oil= 6.513 billion tones；
gas= 2.47 trillion cubic meters
Remaining recoverable reserves：
oil= 2.381 billion tones；
gas=2.09 trillion cubic meters
Proved rate:
oil= 38.9%；
gas= 23.0%
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and
Their Prediction
2. Yearly production curves of oil and gas with time since 1949
Production (million tones)
200
150
100
oil
50
0
1944
1954
1964
1974
1984
1994
2004
Production (hundred million cubic meters)
350
300
250
gas
200
150
100
50
0
1944
1954
1964
1974
1984
1994
2004
oil production
(ten thousand tonnes)
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and
Their Prediction
3. Oil and gas production in different areas of China
20000
15000
East China
Middle China
West China
China’s Sea
10000
5000
gas production(hundred
million cubic meters)
0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
300
250
200
East China
Middle China
West China
China’s Sea
150
100
50
0
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and
Their Prediction
4. Forecast approach and principle on
China’s future oil and gas production
Norway (North Sea)
Typical Oil Depletion Curve
Werner Zittel , LBST www.energiekrise.de
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and
Their Prediction
Oil and gas resources (hundred million tones)
4. Forecast approach and principle on China’s future oil and gas production
Theoretical maximum resources
Yearly proved
resources
Proved resources
Proved recoverable resources
Yearly
production
Accumulated production
Exploration and development procession
Relationship among the oil and gas resources, proved and recoverable
resources, remaining recoverable resources and yearly production
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and
Their Prediction
Exploration fruits (108tones)
4. Forecast approach and principle on China’s future oil and gas production
250
200
150
accumulated discovered
geological reservoirs
accumulated discovered
recoverable reservoirs
remaining recoverable
reservoirs
100
50
0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Relationship among the oil and gas resources, proved and
recoverable resources, remaining recoverable resources and yearly
production of China from 1970 to 2003
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and
Their Prediction
Oil
250
200
Guo
Baoshen
Jia
Wenrui
Mu
Shuling
Shen
Pingping
Average
150
100
50
0
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
Zhou Zongying
Gas
600
Jia Wenrui
Mu Shuling
Wan Jiye
400
Zhao Fuxing
200
Average
0
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
Production (hundred million
cubic meters)
Production (million tones)
5. Forecast on China’s oil and gas production by different scholars in the coming 15 years.
400
yearly net increase of
recoverable reservoirs
yearly oil production
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
gas production
140
yearly net increase of
recoverable reservoirs
120
(million tones)
0
1960
Yearly gas production
Yearly oil production
(million tones)
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in China and
Their Prediction
6. Forecast on oil and gas production until 2050
100
80
60
40
20
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
III. The Brief Introduction and Forecast on Oil and Gas Production
in China
6. Forecast on oil and gas production in China
300
Million Tones
250
2026
2005
Oil production
石油年产量
Gas production
天然气年产量
200
} Gas
150
}
100
Oil
50
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
Forecast on China’s oil and gas production
Contents
I. Forward
II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil
and Gas Resources
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in
China and their Prediction
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas
in China and Their Countermeasures
Ⅵ. Conclusions
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
1. The shortage of oil and gas is an inevitable problem faced by human beings
Gb /year
50
40
30
20
50
Demand
Growth
World oil
shortfall scenarios
40
Past Production of Oil
20
Forecast
Production
10
}
Shortfall
30
10
0
1930
2002
2030
0
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
time
By 2030, the gap is equivalent to 6,000 nuclear reactors
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
2. The shortage of oil in China is shown by large importation.
Production and demand (million tones)
500
400
Importation is 50% of
Total demand in 2010
China began to import
oil in 1993
Oil demand
}
300
Shortfall
Oil production
200
●
100
0
1960
Importation is 41% of
Total demand in 2004
1970
1980
1990
Time
2000
2010
2020
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
2. The shortage of gas in China is shown by large importation
Production and demand (hundred million cubic meters)
2000
}
Gas demand
1500
Begin to import gas
shortfall
1000
Gas production
500
0
1950
●
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2004
2010
2020
Contents
I. Forward
II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil
and Gas Resources
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in
China and their Prediction
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas
in China and Their Countermeasures
Ⅵ. Conclusions
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
Challenge I ：Restrain economy development
Defense
……
Transportation
Space industry
Chemical Industry
Traffic
Oil & gas
Environment
Oil is the blood of industry. The industry cannot develop without it.
It costs us a lot of foreign exchanges to import oil. The number of 2004
reached 300 billion RMB. The expense on yearly importation will keep
increasing with the increase of importation and higher oil price.
Bottleneck
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
Challenge II : Affect people’s life and environment
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
World
1970
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1975
1980
China
1985
1990
1995
2000
China
1970
1975
1980
U.S.A
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
coal
oil
hydro
gas
1995
2000
nuclear
1985
1990
1995
2000
年 份
China has a large population and is in shortage of energy. People are still using traditional methods to utilize the energy.
It causes a series of environment problems: decrease of forests and plants, decline of earth and organic matters in the
soil , growth of desert, and so on.
China has the largest coal production and consumption. The burning of coal gives out 85% of the country’s SO 2，85%
of the country’s CO2，and 75% of the country’s dust. The loss cost by acid rain is 2% of the GDP in 1998. The potential
effect of CO2 is a key factor in the energy field.
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
Challenge III ：Affect country security
Oil and gas are important strategy
Gulf War
resources. In modern war, the
production and procession basement of
oil and its transportation tools are the
main attacking targets by enemies. The
shortage of oil will seriously threaten the
security of the country. Now the pillage
on oil and gas resources is so furious
around the world. The past Gulf War
and newly ended Iraq War are all
because of the abundance of oil
resources in the Middle-east.
Iraq War
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
How to deal with these challenges brought by the shortage of oil and gas ?
Gb/year
50
Demand
Growth
World oil
shortfall scenarios
40
Efficiency
Transport
mode shifts
Pricing / taxes
City design / lifestyle
30
Past Production of Oil
Other petroleum fuels
gas, tar-sands
Other fuels
20
Forecast
Production
10
Deprivation, war
2005
0
1930
1950
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
• no single “Magic Bullet” solution
• probably no replacement ever for cheap plentiful oil
• Urgent preparation and adjustment are vital
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
China adopts four measures to solve the
shortage of oil and gas resources problems
Oil and gas production and demand (million tones)
600
500
Take saving measures
Oil and gas demand
2005
400
300
Find substitute energy
Utilize overseas energy
Oil and gas production
Develop domestic energy
200
100
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
Measure I：Innovate geological theory and fasten the development and
utilization of domestic oil and gas resources
China’s
oil and gas resources:
Oil: 104 billion tones, proved rate:38.9% (the world:73.0%)
Gas: 42trillion cubic meters, proved rate:23.0% (the world: 60.5%)
Oil and gas resources distribution and exploration situation in China
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
Measure II ：Participate international competition and broaden
the benefit proportion of international oil and gas resources
17
24
15
8
4 3
11
20
1
2
10
12
13
25
7
19
2122
9
北京
★
18
5
6
16
14
23
1 阿曼 2 也门 3 伊朗 4 科威特 5 泰国 6 印尼 7 土库曼斯坦 8 阿塞拜疆 9 蒙古 10 苏丹 11 阿尔及利亚
12 尼日利亚 13 委内瑞拉 14 秘鲁 15 加拿大 16 巴布亚新几内亚 17 哈萨克斯坦 18 缅甸 19 加蓬 20 沙特
21 安哥拉 22 刚果 23 澳大利亚 24 吉尔吉斯斯坦 25 厄瓜多尔
The benefit oil
and gas
resources are
totally 19.74
million tones,
among them,
PetroChina
14.43 million
tones, CNOOC
5 million tones,
SINOPEC 0.31
million tones.
The situation and fruits of China’s overseas oil and gas exploration
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
Measure III: Increase the expenses on science and
technology and develop substitute energy
Substitute energy
★Coal to oil
★Develop hydrogen energy
★Ethanol gasoline
★Develop biomass energy
★Utilizing wind and solar energy
★Utilizing nuclear energy
Oil and gas are non-renewable energy resources and will be used
up in some day. Governments in all the countries should take
measures to look for substitute energies.
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
Measure IV : Adopt saving measures and guarantee the
stable development
Measures to Save oil & gas
★Change life style
★Develop public transportation
★Decrease the consumption of oil by cars
★Improve the efficiency of oil and gas utilization
Oil is a high-efficiency energy and gas is a clean energy. The oil
price will keep increasing, so adopting oil saving measures will be the
direction we take efforts to.
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and
Gas in China and Their Countermeasures
What is our purpose to take these measures?
★
US
China
Contents
I. Forward
II. The Economy Development of China Needs a Lot of Oil
and Gas Resources
III. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Production in
China and their Prediction
IV. The Brief Introduction to Oil and Gas Shortage in
China and Their Prediction
V . The Challenges Brought by the Shortage of Oil and Gas
in China and Their Countermeasures
Ⅵ. Conclusions
Ⅵ. Conclusions
1. China’s economy is still in fast development stage,
oil and gas resources are the most important energies.
2. It is inevitable that oil and gas will be used up in the
future, the predicted peak production of oil and gas in
China will be in 2026.
3. Chinese government now is paying much more
attention to this serious problem and four measures are
taken to solve this problem.
4. We believe that human beings can take advantage of
their talents and knowledge to solve this problem.
Thanks for your