Transcript Climate Change Dialogue India Country Presentation

Climate Change Dialogue
India Country Presentation
Surya P. Sethi
Adviser, Energy
Planning Commission, India
May 2006
India Needs More Energy for its
Development
2
India is NOT Following the Fuelish Path of
Industrialized Countries
3
Decreasing Energy Intensity Behind
India’s Sustainable Development
Energy intensity of GDP (kgoe/$ 2000 PPP)
0.29
0.27
0.25
0.23
0.21
0.19
0.17
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1995
1990
1985
1980
1975
0.15
1971
TPES (kgoe)/GDP ($2000 PPP)
0.31
4
India’s Development Goals
1.
Reducing the poverty ratio by 5 percentage points by
2007 and by 15 percentage points by 2012
2.
Providing gainful and high-quality employment to the
labor force
3.
All children in school by 2003; all children to complete
5 years of schooling by 2007
4.
Reducing gender gaps in literacy and wage rates by at
least 50 % by 2007
•
Raising the literacy rate to 75% within the 10th Plan
6.
Reducing the decadal rate of population growth
between 2001-2011 to 16.2%
5
The goals in blue are more ambitious than corresponding MDGs
India’s Developmental Goals…
7.
Reducing the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) to 45 per 1000
live births by 2007 and to 28 by 2012
8.
Reducing the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR) to 2 per
1000 live births by 2007 and to 1 by 2012
9.
Increasing the forest and tree cover to 25 % by 2007
and 33 % by 2007
10. All villages to have sustained access to potable
drinking water by 2007
11. Electricity for all by 2012
12. Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007 and other
notified stretches by 2012
6
Energy Implications of India’s
Development Goals
7
1. Reducing the poverty ratio by 5 percentage points
by 2007 and by 15 percentage points by 2012
• About 26% of India’s population below poverty line in 2001 (Govt. estimate)
• National poverty line:2100 calories/capita (urban); 2400 calories/capita (rural)
• 35% of Indian population < US $1/day; 80% < US $2/day (UNDP estimate)
Annual incremental energy consumption & associated CO2 emissions for
reducing poverty ratios with 2001 as base year
60
52.8
50
40
27.4
30
20
23.5
12.0
10
0
Additional energy Additional CO2 (MMT)
consumption (mtoe)
2007
Additional energy Additional CO2 (MMT)
consumption (mtoe)
2012
8
2. Providing gainful and high-quality employment to
the labor force
• Estimated addition to labor force during 2002-2007: ~35 million
• Assumed that basic energy consumption patterns of the newly employed
population changes from Below poverty line to Above poverty line
Incremental energy & emissions in 2008
3
3
2.5
2
2
2.6
1.5
1
1.5
1
CO2 (MMT)
Energy (mtoe)
2.5
1.1
0.5
0.5
0
0
Energy (mtoe)
CO2 emissions (million tonnes)
9
3.
All children to complete 5 years of schooling;
Increase in literacy rate to 75%; Reduction in
gender gaps in literacy by at least 50% - by 2007
•Two major programmes
of Government of India:
Estimated Additional Enrolment at Primary Level
(million)
3
2.68
2.01
2.1
2.96
2.85
2.77
2.18
2.27
 Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan
3.06
2.37
Boys
2
Girls
1
0.67
0.67
0.67
0.69
0.69
0
2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07
Total
(SSA) – to achieve
universal elementary
education
 National Literacy
Mission: ~100 million
persons (in age group
15-35 yrs) to be made
literate through NLM
scheme
10
3.
All children to complete 5 years of schooling;
Increase in literacy rate to 75%; Reduction in
gender gaps in literacy by at least 50% - by 2007
2.00
11
10
9
1.50
Transportation
of food grain
8
7
6
5
4
3
1.00
0.50
0.00
Energy
(mtoe)
Paper
consumption
Lighting & fans
2
1
0
Infrastructure
development
• Energy required:1.8
mtoe; CO2 emissions:
10.3 MMT
•90% of energy
requirements and
88% of CO2 emissions
on account of
infrastructure
development
CO2 emissions
(MMT)
11
4.
Health related targets
Reduction in decadal growth rate of population during 2001-11 to 16.2%
Reduction in Infant Mortality Rate to 45 per 1,000 live births by 2007 and
28 per 1,000 live births by 2012
Reduction in Maternal Mortality Ratio to 2 per 1,000 live births by 2007 &
1 per 1,000 live births by 2012.
CO2 emissions (MMT)
Energy Consumption (mtoe)
0.02
0.06
0.32
0.17
Construction
Lighting, Fans &
Refrigeration
2.08
8.92
Referral Transport
Estimated increase in energy consumption & emissions due to
additional infrastructure & services
12
5. All villages to have sustained access to potable
drinking water by 2007
• 2 GoI Programs:
 Rajiv Gandhi drinking
Energy Requirement for supply of clean
drinking water to rural community (mtoe)
0.02 (9%)
water mission
 Swajaldhara (community
led participatory
program to provide
drinking water in rural
areas )
• 15% of rural population not
0.14 (54%)
0.09 (37%)
Water extraction and distribution
Water treatment
Material requirement
covered by safe drinking water
 1 million bore-wells needed
(0.3 m motorized)
• 5.6 million acre-foot of water to
be treated
• 30,000 tons of steel required for
GI pipes
• 0.26 mtoe energy requirement
• 3.45 MMT CO2 emissions
13
6. Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007
and other notified stretches by 2012
5000
50000
4000
40000
3000
30000
2000
20000
1000
10000
0
0
2002
2007
2012
MLD
Urban population ('000)
• Current sewage generation ~
33,000 MLD; Treatment capacity
7,000 MLD
Sewage
generation
Projected urban
population
• Treatment capacity to be created
 26,000 MLD at national level +
1300 MLD under National River
Conservation Plan (NRCP)
• Industrial effluent generation ~
15,000 MLD; treatment capacity
9,000 MLD  6,000 MLD
discharged untreated by Small
Industries
• Capacity requirement: 10
KW/MLD (STP); 12 KW/MLD (ETP)
• Energy required to meet target: 0.31 mtoe /year (till 2007)
• CO2 emissions resulting from additional energy requirement: 4.2 MMT/year
14
India’s Policies For Sustainable
Growth
15
India’s Energy Policies: Scenarios
Simulated by MARKAL (2001-2031)
• Baseline: Base year 2001
GDP growth 8%
Official demographic projections
IPCC emissions factors
8% discount rate
• S1: Cleaner fuels for power generation
• S2: Electricity for all by 2012
decentralized renewable options
efficient cook stoves
• S3: 20% increase in share of public road transport
Greater use of CNG in buses, taxis, 3-W vehicles
• S4: S1+S2+S3
• S5: Average annual GDP growth rate 6.7%
16
Comparison of Energy Supply Intensity
40
35
PJ/Billion US$
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
2001
2006
Baseline
2011
S1
2016
S2
2021
S3
2026
S4
2031
S5
17
Change in India’s CO2 intensity as a result of
Government policy initiatives
CO2 Intensity
MMT/Billion US $
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
S3
S4
2031
Years
Baseline
S1
S2
S5
18
India’s per capita energy
consumption remains low
TPES/Capita
(kgoe)
India 2003
304
India 2003 (8% growth rate, BAU base case)
1240
India 2032 (8% growth rate,EE Scenario)
1042
World Average 2003
1688
OECD 2003
4668
USA 2003
7840
China 2003
1090
South Korea 2003
4272
Japan 2003
4056
19
India’s Technology Needs For
Sustainability
20
Issues in Technology
• Principles relating to technology
transfer
• Country-specific circumstances
• Technology for sustainable development to be
placed in limited public domain for developing
countries
• Collaborative R&D to replace conventional
technology transfer
21
India’s Technology Priorities
•
Futuristic Technologies: Technologies
at an early stage of R&D:
(a) Next generation solar:
 Organic and polymer solar cells
 New material based thin film solar (telluride &
indium thin film cells)
 Solar based regenerative fuel cells
22
Futuristic Technologies for India…
(b) Next generation biomass:
 Microbial fuel cells
 Microbial production of hydrogen from biomass
 Bioreactors for hydrogen production
23
Futuristic Technologies for India…
(c) Next generation coal:
 Liquefaction of coal to produce fuel oil
(d)Next generation energy storage
 Advanced ultra-capacitors/super-capacitors
 Carbon nanotubes and glass micro spheres
for hydrogen storage
 High density storage batteries
24
Technologies to be adopted to
Indian conditions:
(a) Solar energy
 Tandem cells
 Low cost concentrator with PV
 Solar thermal sterling cycle
(b) Biomass
 Enzymatic degradation of ligno cellulosic
biomass for bio-ethanol and bio-methanol
 High yielding germ plasms for TBO plants
 MCFC / SOFC integrated with biomass gasifiers &
gas turbines for power generation
25
Technologies to be adopted to
Indian conditions…
(c) Coal
 Integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC)
 In–situ coal gasification (UCG)
 Ultra-critical & supercritical coal combustion
(d) End-use technologies
 Metal hydride based hydrogen storage
 Solar passive architecture
 Light emitting diodes
 Integrated hybrid PV water heating systems
26
Technologies Requiring Removal of
Barriers Specifically Cost Barrier
(a) Solar energy
 Hybrid solar systems
 Solar concentrators
 Solar passive systems
(b) Biomass
 Biomass gasifiers for power generation
 Thermal application of biomass gasifiers
(process heat)
 Bio-oil from biomass by flash pyrolysis
27
Technologies Requiring Removal of
Barriers Specifically Cost Barrier
(c) Coal
 Beneficiation of coal
Higher conversion efficiency in existing plants
(d) End use technologies
Green building architecture
Efficient appliances/processes currently in use
Absorption refrigeration
Solar thermal for residential / commercial and
low-grade industrial
28
Issues On Adaptation
29
Issues in Adaptation
Principles for action on adaptation

The full ‘additional’ cost of adaptation should be
financed and not just the incremental cost

A simplified modality for predictable and flexible
cost-sharing should be developed

Adequacy and predictability of resources for
financing adaptation should be ensured
30
Adaptation issues…
Principles for disbursing and managing
funds available for adaptation
 Flexibility in decision making and processing
 Mechanism should enable wider access to resources
in the pool- include regional and specialized
agencies as implementing agencies
 A portfolio based approach that leads to:
 Mainstreaming Adaptation in ongoing development
programs
 Technology development, diffusion and transfer
 Insurance to enhance adaptive capacity
31
Adaptation issues…
Way Forward on Adaptation:
Streamlining portfolio for programming
adaptation interventions
Studies for identifying specific interventions
in Insurance --GEF to research current
options and potential interventions
Above Issues to be reflected in the Five-year
Programme of Work on Adaptation being
undertaken by SBSTA
32