Transcript After Kyoto - Making the Right Decisions

Facing the
Sustainability
Challenge
Seminar
11th June 2008
Making the Right Decisions for the Long Term
John Harrison B.Sc. B.Ec. FCPA
TecEco Managing Director
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
1
The Atmosphere
The Challenge is to Keep the Atmosphere
Stable. To do this we must take a long term
view and engineer a new way for us to live.
Source: IPCC
Lifetime in Atmosphere
Source: Sam Nelson Greenbase
http://en.wikipedia.o
rg/wiki/Earth's_atmo
sphere 17 Feb 08
900
800
700
600
Yrs
Source:
Even if the annual flow of emissions was
frozen today, the level of greenhouse
gas in the atmosphere would still reach
double its pre-industrial levels by 2050.
In fact, emissions are increasing rapidly
and the level of 550 ppm could be
reached as early as 2035.
1,000
500
400
300
200
100
0
Stern review Executive Summary Page 3 para 6
CFC
Hig h
Lo w
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
CO2
CH4
PCBs
SO2
Water
PM10
Emission
2
CO2 in the Atmosphere
Gigaton CO2
CO2 in the Atmosphere
BAU
Emissions
450 ppm
?
?
Year
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
3
Balancing CO2 in the Atmosphere


The problem is fundamentally one of CO2
balance, not emissions
There are two ways the CO2 in the
atmosphere can be balanced
• By reducing emissions.
• By using (sequestering) at least as much carbon
as we produce.

Both strategies require
• technological change on a scale never before
imagined.
• A high long term high price for carbon to drive
investment that will result in this change.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
4
Where are we?

The Kyoto Protocol
• A treaty intended to implement the objectives and principles
agreed in the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC).
• Requires governments to agree to quantified limits on their
greenhouse gas emissions, through sequential rounds of
negotiations for successive commitment periods.
• The Kyoto treaty is the result of political negotiation and
diplomatic compromise and on the surface not a lot more than
short term promises to reduce emissions that make politicians
look good, but that their successors cannot possibly keep.
• The Kyoto treaty is not a viable strategy for survival in the future
- A treaty agreeing to a long term plan is required.

Constraint
• With lots of silly “targets” with no strategy for their achievement

Talk about Carbon Capture and Storage
• Not a lot else
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
5
World Economic Growth and Energy Intensity
GDP is rising on a per capita basis and
because of population growth. At the
same time due to technological
improvements that have resulted in
increasing thermodynamic efficiencies
as well as some sectoral change energy
consumption per unit of GDP (energy
intensity) has been falling. As a result
emissions have not been rising as fast
as GDP.
Source: DOE – Energy Information Administration at
http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/carbonemiss/chapter1.html
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
6
The Correlation Between WIP and Emissions
World Industrial Product (deflated
world `GDP' in real value - i.e. World
physical production).
CO2 emissions (in CO2 mass
units: Doubling time = 29 years.
Data: CDIAC; statistics: GDI.
The correlation between the WIP and the CO2 emissions is still however very high.
Source: Di Fazio, Alberto, The fallacy of pure efficiency gain measures to control future climate
change, Astronomical Observatory of Rome and the Global Dynamics Institute
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
7
The Correlation Between WIP and Emissions

The correlation between emissions
and GDP is high because:
• Fossil fuels supply > 90% of the world's
energy.
• Energy is used to produce goods (WIP)
• Only in recent years


have we been seriously trying to improve
efficiency (most of the Kyoto effort)
there has been a shift to services with lower
CO2 intensity
Energy ~ Money ?
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
8
The Limits to Efficiency Improvements
There are may ways the second law of thermodynamics can be
enunciated but relevant to us is Lord Kelvin’s version.
“It is impossible to convert heat completely into work”
Using Carnot’s law it is possible to calculate the theoretical maximum
efficiency of any heat engine such as a power station turbine or engine
of a car, bus or train. (Try the calculator at http://hyperphysics.phy-
astr.gsu.edu/hbase/thermo/carnot.html)
Most heat engines run at much lower efficiencies than the theoretical
limit so there is still scope for improvements however the law of
diminishing returns applies in terms of cost.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
9
Efficiency Limitations to Emissions Reduction
Total per capita emissions
reduction
Rate of
Per Capita
Emissions
Reduction
Per capita emissions
reduction through Pilzer 1st
law substitution
(Technology change =
resource use change)
Per capita emissions
reduction through
thermodynamic efficiency
The Future
2008
Conclusion: It is essential that R& D into substitution technologies occurs now
in order to ramp up Pilzer first law substitution later and avoid thermodynamic
constraints. This is not happening in Australia
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
10
What We Don’t Want to Talk About
?
?
Undeveloped
Countries
A Planet in Crisis
Developed
Countries
Global population, consumption per capita and our footprint
on the planet are continuing to rise strongly.
The paradox: Affluence = Population Control
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
11
Kyoto Strategies are not Working
Assuming Kyoto commitments are met (which is unlikely) it is
estimated that global emissions will be 41% higher in 2010 than in
1990, 1% less than without Kyoto.
Ford M, Matyseka M, et al. (2006). Perspectives on international climate policy. Australian Agricultural
and Resource Economics Society 50th Annual Conference, Sydney, ABARE.
www.aares.info/files/2006_matysek.pdf.
“We are tracking on worst case scenarios.”
Whetton, P, Leader, Climate Impacts & Risk Group, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research,
Aspendale, Vic, Australia in presentation “Climate Change: What is the science telling us? “
A solution is needed of the utmost urgency to preserve history for
many, many generations to come.
Sir Richard Branson at the launch of the Virgin Earth Prize
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
12
Fossil Fuel Usage Continues to Rise
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
13
Oil will However Decline
The current round of inflation has less to do with dangerous underlying
demand than with real shortages in oil. Crippling our economy by cranking
up interest rates is about the most stupid thing a government can do as the
economy needs to be in good shape to adapt to resource use change.
Where is the R & D for oil replacement?
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
14
Frightening Graphs from ABARE
Global primary energy consumption
projections
Global primary energy
consumption by fuel mix, 2050
Global primary energy
consumption fuel mix
Composition of Aust Government energy
research and development in 2002
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
15
More Frightening Graphs from ABARE
Ford M, Matyseka M, et al. (2006). Perspectives
on international climate policy. Australian
Agricultural and Resource Economics Society
50th Annual Conference, Sydney, ABARE.
www.aares.info/files/2006_matysek.pdf.
Global greenhouse gas emissions
An over emphasis on
geosequestration (CCS)?
Sources of abatement: global technology + partnership CCS
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
16
Reducing the CO2 in the air
without Curtailing GDP

The challenge is to find ways of reducing
CO2 in the air without negatively
impacting the economy.
• Substitution to Non Fossil Fuel Sources of
Energy


Geothermal, Wind, Solar etc.
Nuclear
• Sequestration on a Massive Scale


Geo-sequestration (clean coal, hydrogen fuel etc.) limited
Anthropogenic sequestration in the built environment
- our preferred option
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
17
Geosequestration




Is not safe due to leakage (China recently?)
Is not likely to be ready before 2015 for
coal fired power stations in Australia
Authoritative published studies estimate the
cost of geosequestration at between $30$140/tCO2. (a wide range due to so many
uncertainties)
Added to the cost of coal or hydrogen,
these sources of energy with
geosequestration may be more expensive
that alternatives.
A long term plan would included the required R & D now
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
18
Affect of Leakage on Geosequestration
Source: CANA (2004). Carbon Leakage and
Geosequestration, Climate Action Network Australia.
"The assumption of
exclusive reliance on
storage may be an extreme
one, however the example
illustrates that emphasis on
energy efficiency and
increased reliance on
renewable energy must be
priority areas for greenhouse
gas mitigation. The higher
the expected leakage rate
and the larger the
uncertainty, the less
attractive geosequestration
is compared to other
mitigation alternatives such
as shifting to renewable
energy sources, and
improved efficiency in
production and consumption
of energy."
Downloadable Model at
http://www.tececo.com/files/spreadsheets/Gaia
EngineeringVGeoSequestrationV1_26Apr08.xls
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
19
Synopsis




We must accept our long term role of maintaining “spaceship
earth” as planetary engineers and find ways of maintaining the
level of carbon dioxide, oxygen and other gases in the
atmosphere at desirable levels.
We cannot possibly arrest the alarming increases in
atmospheric carbon dioxide currently occurring through
efficiency, emissions reduction (constraint) or substitution
alone
Geo-sequestration is at best short term and at worst highly
risky. What would have happened recently if the Chinese were
using the technology?
We have a good chance of preserving the future if we mimic
nature and find profitable uses for carbon and other wastes.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
20
Synopsis





Uses for carbon and other wastes must be economically driven and result in
a real value that puts profit in the pocket of a large number who will as a
consequence wish to engage otherwise they cannot be implemented on the
massive scale required.
Anthropogenic sequestration as man made carbonate in the built
environment is a new technology platform that has the promise of profitably
sequestering massive amounts of carbon profitably.
The markets created for man made carbonate in buildings are insatiable,
large enough and indefinitely continuing.
Anthropogenic sequestration by building with man made carbonate is doable
and most likely presents the only option we have for saving the planet from
runaway climate change until such time as safe and reliable forms of
energy alternative to fossil fuels can be developed
Anthropogenic sequestration by building with man made carbonate must be
part of any long term planetary maintenance strategy.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
21
Learning to Use Carbon - Geomimicry
for Planetary Engineers?

Large tonnages of carbon (7% of the crust) were put
away during earth’s geological history as limestone,
dolomite and magnesite, mostly by the activity of
plants and animals.
• Orders of magnitude more than as coal or petroleum!


Shellfish built shells from carbon and trees turn it into
wood.
These same plants and animals wasted nothing
• The waste from one is the food or home for another.


Because of the colossal size of the flows involved the
answer to the problems of greenhouse gas and waste
is to use them both in an insatiable, large and
indefinitely continuing market.
Such a market exists for building and construction
materials.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
22
Geomimicry for Planetary Engineers?



The required paradigm shift in resource
usage will not occur because it is the right
thing to do.
Can only happen economically.
To put an economic value on carbon and
wastes
• We have not choice but to invent new technical
paradigms such as offered by TecEco and the
Global Sustainability Alliance (Gaia Engineering).
• Evolving culturally to effectively use these technical
paradigms

using carbon dioxide and other
wastes as building materials we can
By
economically reduce their concentration in
the global commons.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
23
Size of Carbon Sinks
Modified from Figure 2 Ziock, H. J. and D. P. Harrison. "Zero Emission Coal Power, a New Concept."
from http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/proceedings/01/carbon_seq/2b2.pdf by the inclusion of a
bar to represent sedimentary sinks
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
24
Carbon Sink Permanence
Carbonate
sediment
40,000,000
Gt
Sequestration
Permanence
and time
Plants 600 Soils and
Detritus
Gt
1600 Gt
Methane
Fossil
Fuels 8,000 Clathrates
100,000 Gt
Gt
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
25
Anthropogenic Sequestration of Carbon and Wastes


During earth's geological history large tonnages of carbon
were put away as limestone and other carbonates and as
coal and petroleum by the activity of plants and animals.
Sequestering carbon in calcium and magnesium
carbonate materials and other wastes in the built
environment mimics nature in that carbon is used in the
homes or skeletal structures of most plants and animals.
CO2
In eco-cement concretes the
binder is carbonate and the
aggregates are preferably
carbonates and wastes. This is
“geomimicry”
CO2
CO2
C
CO2
Waste
Pervious pavement
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
26
Geomimicry

There are 1.2-3 grams of
magnesium and about .4 grams of
calcium in every litre of seawater.



Carbonate sediments such as
these cliffs represent billions
of years of sequestration
and cover 7% - 8% of the crust.
There is enough
calcium and magnesium
in seawater with replenishment
to last billions of years at current
needs for sequestration.
To survive we must build our
homes like these seashells using
CO2 and alkali metal cations. This
is geomimicry
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
27
Anthropogenic Sequestration Using Gaia
Engineering will Modify the Carbon Cycle
CO2 in the air and water
Cellular
Respiration
Photosynthesis burning and
decay
by plants and
algae
Limestone
coal and oil
burning
Organic
compounds made
by autotrophs
Cellular Respiration
Decay by
fungi and
bacteria
Gaia Engineering,
(Greensols, TecEco
Kiln and EcoCements)
Organic compounds
made by heterotrophs
Consumed by
heterotrophs
(mainly animals)
More about Gaia Engineering at
http://www.tececo.com.au/simple.gaiaengineering_summary.php
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
28
Building and Construction Represents an Insatiable,
Large and Indefinitely Continuing Market for
Anthropogenic Sequestration





The built environment is made of materials and is our
footprint on earth.
• It comprises buildings and infrastructure.
Construction materials comprise
• 70% of materials flows (buildings, infrastructure etc.)
• 40-50% of waste that goes to landfill (15 % of new
materials going to site are wasted.)
Around 50 billion tonnes of building materials are used
annually on a world wide basis.
The single biggest materials flow (after water) is concrete at
around 18 billion tonnes or > 2 tonnes per man, woman and
child on the planet.
40% of total energy in the industrialised world
(researchandmarkets)
Why not use magnesium carbonate aggregates and building components
from Greensols and Eco-Cements from TecEco to bind them together?
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
29
Only the Built Environment is Big Enough
The built environment is our footprint, the major proportion of the
techno-sphere and our lasting legacy on the planet. It comprises
buildings and infrastructure
Source of graphics: Nic Svenningson UNEP SMB2007
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
30
Economically Driven Technological Change
$ - ECONOMICS - $
New, more profitable
technical paradigms are
required that result in
more sustainable and
usually more efficient
moleconomic flows that
mimic natural flows or
better, reverse our
damaging flows.
Change is only possible economically. It will not
happen because it is necessary or right.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
31
Consider Sustainability as Where
Culture and Technology Meet
Increase in demand/price ratio for greater
sustainability due to cultural change.
$
ECONOMICS
We must rapidly
move both the
supply and demand
curves for
sustainability
Equilibrium
Shift
Supply
Greater Value/for impact
(Sustainability) and
economic growth
Increase in supply/price ratio for
more sustainable products due to
technical innovation.
Demand
#
A measure of the degree of sustainability is where the demand for more
sustainable technologies is met by their supply.
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
32
Changing the Technology Paradigm
It is not so much a matter of “dematerialisation” or
constraint as a question of changing the underlying
moleconomic flows. We need materials that require
less energy to make them, do not pollute the
environment with CO2 and other releases, last much
longer and that contribute properties that reduce
lifetime energies. The key is to change the technology
paradigms
“By enabling us to make productive use of particular
raw materials, technology determines what constitutes
a physical resource1”
1.Pilzer, Paul Zane, Unlimited Wealth, The Theory and Practice of Economic Alchemy, Crown Publishers
Inc. New York.1990
Or more simply – the technical paradigm
determines what is or is not a resource!
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
33
Cultural Change is Happening!








Al Gore (SOS)
CSIRO reports
STERN Report
Lots of Talkfest
IPCC Report
Political change
Branson Prize The media have an important
growing role
Live Earth
(07/07/07)
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
34
Why Magnesium Carbonates?


Because of the low molecular weight of
magnesium, it is ideal for scrubbing CO2
out of the air and sequestering the gas
into the built environment:
Due to the lighter molar mass of
magnesium more CO2 is captured than in
calcium systems as the calculations below
show.
CO2
44

 52%
MgCO 3 84



CO 2
44

 43%
CaCO3 101
At 2.09% of the crust magnesium is the
8th most abundant element
Sea-water contains 1.29 g/l compared to
calcium at .412 g/l
Magnesium compounds have low pH and
polar bond in composites making them
suitable for the utilisation of other wastes.
Seawater
Reference
Data
Cati
on
radiu
g/l
s
H20 (pm)
Chloride (Cl--)
19
167
Sodium (Na+)
10.5
116
Sulfate (S04--)
2.7
?
Magnesium
(Mg++)
1.29
86
Calcium
(Ca++)
0.41
2
114
Potassium
(K+)
0.39
9
152
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
35
Making Carbonate Building Materials to
Solve the Global Warming Problem


Magnesium materials from Gaia Engineering are potential low
cost. New kiln technology from TecEco will enable easy low cost
simple non fossil fuel calcination of magnesium carbonate to
make binders with the CO2 recycling to produce more
carbonate building material to be used with these binders.
How much magnesium carbonate would have to be deposited
to solve the problem of global warming?
•
The annual flux of CO2 is around 12 billion tonnes ~= 22.99 billion tonnes
magnesite
• The density of magnesite is 3 gm/cm3 or 3 tonne/metre3



22.9/3 billion cubic metres ~= 7.63 cubic kilometres of
magnesite would have to be deposited each year.
Compared to the over seven cubic kilometres of concrete we
make every year, the problem of global warming looks
surmountable.
If magnesite was our building material of choice and we could
make it without releases as is the case with Gaia Engineering,
we have the problem as good as solved!
Anthropogenic sequestration - building with
carbonate and waste is the answer
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
36
Gaia Engineering Process Diagram
Inputs:
Atmospheric or industrial CO2,
brines, waste acid or bitterns, other wastes
Outputs:
Gaia Engineering delivers profitable
outcomes whilst reversing underlying
undesirable moleconomic flows from other
less sustainable techno-processes outside
the tececology.
Carbon or carbon compounds
Magnesium compounds
Carbonate building materials, potable water,
valuable commodity salts.
Carbonate building components
CO2
Solar or solar
derived energy
CO2
CO2
MgO
Eco-Cement
TecEco
MgCO2
Cycle
TecEco
Kiln
MgCO3
Coal
Fossil fuels
Oil
Presentation downloadable
from www.tececo.com
CO2
Extraction
Process
1.29 gm/l Mg
.412 gm/l Ca
37
Gaia Engineering Flow Chart
CaO
Industrial CO2
TecEco
Tec-Kiln
Portland Cement
Manufacture
MgO
Clays
Fresh Water
Brine
or Sea
water
Extraction
Waste
Acid or
Bittern
s
Extraction
inputs and
outputs
depending
on method
chosen
MgCO3
and
CaCO3
“Stone”
TecEco
Cement
Manufacture
EcoCements
Valuable
Commodity
Salts or
hydrochloric
acid.
Building waste
TecCements
Building
components &
aggregates
Other waste
Built Environment
A Replacement for Kyoto

Must be
• More than a promissory system.
• Dynamically adaptable

Provide for
• Planning
• Support for R & D on a new and different non commercial
model
• Technical assistance

Indicate a long term price for carbon
• So that today's decisions result in the investment
required in tomorrow's technologies

Not impose
• A financial burden on the economy
• An administrative burden on participants

Address
• Scope 3 emissions
Presentation downloadable from www.tececo.com
39