Transcript Green New Deal and Low Carbon Econony

Green Economy and China’s
Development Transition (Plan C)
Zhu Dajian
Institute for Sustainability and Governance
Tongji University
Three points and messages
 Why: How big will the impact of China’s development be in
next decades and particularly in next 10 years ?China’s
green transition is a must.
 What: What is the meaning of China’s green transition?
China should decouple its development from resource use
and environmental impact in terms of Plan C.
 How: What are ways for China to go towards green
development? China has some key decoupling potentials
in three fields such as new-type urbanization, new-type
industrialization and new-type consumerism.
1.Why: Conflict between economy and environment
Supply capacity
supply of
life supporting
resources
declining
A
A Sustainable
Sustainable Development
Development Model
Model
economic limits
social limits
environmental limits
Green economy
Economic demand
consumption of
life supporting
resources
rising
1950-2050:Three stages of New China
Environmental Impact
Brown Economy
China 3.0
China 2.0
Green
Economy
China 1.0
1950
1980
2010
2050
Environment Impact of Economic Growth
• I=Impact: Resource
consumption and pollution
impact
• P=Population:How many
people will we have ?
• A=Affluence:What’s the
consumption level?
• T=Technology and
Management: How fast
and big do we consume ?
1.1 Population: How many people China will have
• China has about 1.26 billion people in 2000 and
1.34 in 2010
• Increasing about 8-10 million persons per year
• 1.4 billion till 2020 in China (1.1 times of the year
2000)
• 10 million persons for urbanization per year
• About 60% urbanization rate till 2020 in China
2030：the peak year for China’s
population （UN）
1.2 Affluence: Growth in terms of GDP per capita
• Beginning of Reform and Opening: $250 per person (A
year growth rate is about 9-10% since then)
• 1981-1990: $500 per capita in 1990
• 1991-2000: $800 per capita in 2000
• 2001-2010: $4000 per capita in 2010
• 2011-2020: $8000 per person in 2020 (about 10 times of
the year 2000)
• 2021-2050: above $20000 per person in 2050 (about 25
times of the year 2000)
GDP per capita (PPP) comparison: US and China
United States
GPD/Capita: $47,000
GDP Growth: 1.3%
China
GDP/Capita: $6,000
GDP Growth: 9.8%
$47,0001.013  $60,853
20
$6,0001.098  $38,922
20
Per Capita Income
In terms of PPP, China will surpass US in 25 years?
Economic size of China in 2050
BRICs Have a Larger US$GDP Than the G6
in Less Than 40 Years
GDP
(2003 US$bn)
50000
100,000
BRICs
90,000
G6
80,000
GDP
(2003 US$bn) The Largest Economies in 2050
2025: BRICs
economies
over half as
large as the G6
70,000
60,000
45000
By 2040:
BRICS
overtake
the G6
40000
35000
30000
50,000
25000
40,000
20000
30,000
15000
20,000
10000
10,000
5000
0
0
2000
2010
GS BRICs Model Projections.
2020
2030
2040
2050
Ch
US
In
GS BRICs Model Projections.
Jpn
Br
Russ
UK
Ger
Fr
It
Economic Scale of China in History
1.3 Technology: Material intensity and resource productivity
China’s Technology Efficiency （ 2000）
Resources
consumption in 2003
Coal
Irion
Steel
Cement
GDP
The percentage to the
world (%)
31
31
30
40
4
Canad
Japan
a
Countries
USA
SO2kg/1000
GDP
2.3
3.7
NOxkg/1000
GDP
2.7
2.9
Austr
alia
Franc
e
0.3
4.7
0.8
0.7
2.0
18.5
0.6
5.5
1.4
1.0
2.1
16.6
USA
Cana
da
China
2.17 2.67
3.50
11.50
Japan
Italy
France
Germa
ny
Energy
consumption/ =1.00
GDP
1.33
1.50
1.50
Countries
UK
Germ
OECD
any
China
1.4 Impact: How big for China in the next decades?
(According to the formula: I=PAT,when T=1)
Year
Population Affluence
(billion)
(GDP per
capita)
Technology Environment
（Impact/G impact (how
many times)
DP）
2000 1.26(1.0) 800(1.0)
1
1.0
2020 1.40(1.1) 8000(10)
1(1/5)
11.0(2.2)
2050 1.3(1.00) 20000(25) 1(1/5)
25.0(5.0)
China coal power plants are increasing
Europe, number of 500MW
equivalent coal plants
2005
2030
32%
519
394
China, number of 500MW
equivalent coal plants
2005
2030
239
%
US, number of 500MW
equivalent coal plants
2005
2030
51%
668
614
India, number of 500MW
equivalent coal plants
2005
2030
1008
249
%
144
Source:World Energy Outlook 2006
502
2082
2. What: China’s green transition and Plan C
2.1 Green Economy and Decoupling (UNEP,2012）
Economic growth within ecological limits
$$$
$
Resources
Resources
Waste
Waste
$
products
products
$$$
Wast
e
Waste
Only a crazy or
an economist
would believe
that an unlimited
growth will keep
on within a limited
planet.
Waste
——Kenneth
Boulding
To decouple development with resource
consumption and environment impact
Increase of well-being
Decoupling
Decrease of natural cost
Brown economy
Green economy
Development curves of green economy
Quality
of life
Economic
growth
Use of
nature
To live better beyond more GDP
consumption
well-being
rich
Conventional mode
throughput
Dematerialization
and sustainable
production
Im-materialization
and sustainable
lifestyle
dematerialization
wedge
lifestyle wedge
dematerialization
wedge
poor
poverty
gap
poverty
spring
equity
clamp
The concept of decoupling （UNEP，2011）
Potentials and challenges for green transition
US
Stock of
goods
Europe
China
/Japan
Developed Developed Developing
Government
initiative
Weak
Strong
Strongest
Green culture
or ideology
Weak
Strong
Developing
Key issues for China’s Plan C
• Model：Smart growth instead of degrowth ( towards growth within the limit of
natural capitals)
• Innovation: technology innovation with
social innovation (to strengthen a socialtechnology integrated policy system
• Capacity building: top-down initiative and
bottom-up involvement (from government
initiatives to collaboration governance)
2.2 Model: Smart growth (Plan C) instead of
degrowth (Plan B)
(1)HDI/EF: US , EU or China model?
Low HDI （＜0.8)
High HDI（≥0.8)
High
Eco-footprint
US level
（ ≥2.7）
EU level
Leapfrogging
Low
Eco-footprint
（ ＜ 2.7）
China
SD
EF2005 (gha per capita)
10
8
poor
6
medium
4
OK
2
good
0
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
HDI2005
0.8
1
Source: http://www.footprintnetwork.org and http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/data/hdi2008
Three pillars for China’s green development
Economic growth (↑):
≥ World Average Wealth
GDP per capita
China’s green future
Environmental impact (↓):
≤ OECD Average Impact
Social Development(↑↑):
≥ World Average HDI
Ecofootprint and CO2 per capita
Education years and life years per
capita
Targets of Green Economy of China
Developing Economic
phase
growth
Human
development
Environment
impact
General
well-off
19782000
$800 per
capita
HDI
0.7
Low Ecofootprint
Entire
Well-off
20012020
$15000
per capita
HDI
0.8
A little
Higher ecofootprint
General 2021moderniz 2050
ation
>$20000
HDI
Per capita >0.9
Ecofootprint of
the world
average
GHG emissions per capita
(2)CO2: Three scenarios for China
Developed
Countries
High Energy
Locked
Development
Leapfrogdevelopment
China
World average
emission
2020
Low
Carbon
World
2050
Time
GDP,Energy and CO2 in China
2005 2020
2030
2050
129.1
299.1
GDP（2005 18.3
Trillion RMB）
65.0
GDP growth
(%)
9.8
8.38
7.11
4.98(2030(2010-2020) (2020-2030) 2040)
3.60(20402050)
Energy(Gt)
21.9
40-42
45-46
55-56
CO2 (Gt)
51.0
84-88
78-84
77-83
Energy/GDP
CO2/GDP
20052050
6.40
Carbon threshold for HDI is decreasing（1t
CO2=0.27tC)
(3)Direction:smart growth vs de-growth
Quality of
life
Plan C：
Short stock
Plan B：
Overshot
threshold space
Eco
footprint
Plan B
Plan C
Plan A
Basic needs is a must for developing countries
5000
10000-20000
New consumerism: developed vs. developing
China
Green
Economy
（RP）
GDP
New Chinese
Consumerism
Eco-footprint
New Western
Consumerism
=
West
Absolute decoupling vs relative decoupling
Growth of economy
Decoupling Factor
1
Growth of resource use
Relative decoupling
Growth of environmental impact
Time
Decrease of resource use
Absolute decoupling
Decrease of environmental impact
Absolute decoupling only at low economic growth
rates
EU
15
EU
27
Source: Social Ecology DB; averages 2000-2005
2.3 Innovation: Technology progress vs behavior
change
Four factors determine CO2 emission
CO2
emis
sion
CO2
emission/e
nergy
Efficiency improvement is not
enough for decoupling
Table 3: CO2 emissions and driving forces
in China (growth in %)
Years
I P
A
T
1979-1988
49 14
118
-63
1989-1998
44 11
130
-69
1999-2008
87
6
128
-22
1979-2008
180
31
376
-154
China’s scenarios based on IPAT
Scenario ⊿ GDP（%year）
⊿ RP=1/T ⊿ I
CO2
⊿P
⊿ GDP/P （%year） （% (2030)
year）
（%year）（%year）
BAU
(Plan A)
0.5
9.5
-3.0
7.0
24 GT
(60×4.0)
Current
Plan
0.5
6.5
-3.5
3.5
Higher
Plan
0.5
6.5
-5.3
1.7
（or 5.0） （or -4.0）
12 GT
(60×2.0)
9 GT
(60×1.5)
?????
all 5 previous global growth periods were
able to access cheap primary resources
18-19 March 2009
47
Mobility models from Shanghai Expo 2010
Incremental
Car sharing system: factor
4
Car energy label: 10-20%
I
Eco-efficiency
（Production）
III
II
IV
Car with new energy: factor 2
Eco-effectiveness
（Consumption）
Low transport-need city: Factor 10
Radical
System innovation instead of gradual
improvement
CO2 policy
Indicators
for social
change
System
innovation
Personalized
public transport
Mobility leasing
Advanced
collective transport
Organized car
sharing
P+R, bus lanes
Anti congestion
policy
System
optimisation
Urban cars
Car electronics
Intelligent
motorways
Fuel cell vehicles
System optimization versus system innovation in passenger road transport (Kemp and Rotmans, 2001)
Incremental improvement vs system
innovation
Factor20
System
innovation
Eco-efficiency
Product
replacement
Factor10
Product
improvement
Factor4
Process
improvement
Factor2
Within sectors
Cross sectors
From efficiency to sufficiency solutions
Shifting development paths towards sustainable development
‘sustainable development’
‘minimization’
Sufficiency
Strategies
Increased
Economic
Activity
Efficiency
Strategies
Environmental Impact - Social inequalities
Source: ECOTEC for DG ENVIRONMENT
‘business as usual’
To raise the value-per-weight ratio € / kg
sufficency and
consumption goods system solutions
durables physical asset
management
smartness and
SCIENCE
2.4 Governance: active government or civil
society
Institutional capital
Government
Capacity
building
Social capital
Active
government
Green Economy
achievement
Civil Society
Voluntary
participation
The important is to get the green paradigm
accepted by policy–makers and the society
Different modes of governance
Plan
B
Institutional capacity
higher
lower
Social higher Dynamic
Voluntary
capaci
governance:
participation:
ty
High success
Low success
lower
Plan C
Active
government:
Low success
Passive
governance:
Failure
How to realize energy and CO2
indicators in 2006-2020
Example：water-saving society and
collaboration governance
Policy-making：forecasting or backcasting
Forecast variable
The trend so far
• Forecasting
scenario
approach
What will the future be?
Past
Future
Time
Objective x
• Backcasting
(landing place)
scenario
approach
Variant 1
Objective z
Variant 2
What measures should be taken
to achieve an objective?
Past
Future
Time
Types of futures studies
Futures studies consider one or more of the three P’s:
1. Possible futures. What may happen?
2. Probable futures. What is most likely to happen?
3. Preferable futures. What we would prefer to happen?
• backcasting concerns the latter – identifying preferable
futures
“The major distinguishing characteristic of backcasting analysis is
a concern, not with what futures are likely to happen, but with how
desirable futures can be attained. It is thus explicitly normative,
involving working backwards from a particular desirable future
end-point to the present in order to determine the physical
feasibility of that future and what policy measures would be
required to reach that point.” (Robinson, 1990)
Forecasting and backcasting
FUTURE
VISION OF
THE
FUTURE
Forecasting
Backcasting
PRESENT
PRESENT
Forecasting and backcasting
trend
Tp
forecast
Xf1
backcast
Xf2
X0
T0 = now
Tf
2030：China’s carbon emission peak？
Policy cycle based on a cap-sharetrade system
Commercial Breakeven with carbon pricing and
subsidies
Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE)
Cost of
alternatives
1 Commercial breakLearning rates
Carbon
price
Incentives to
make
technologies
economically
viable diminish
over time
2 Commercial break-
3
even with carbon
pricing and
subsidies e.g: EU
2
4
Cost of fossil
fuel production
(oil, gas, coal
prices)
even with
subsidies without
carbon pricing e.g:
some US states
5
3 Commercial breakeven with carbon
pricing without
subsidies
4 Commercial breakeven without
carbon pricing or
subsidies
1
Time
Source: DeAM analysis, 2008.
5 Beyond Breakeven
Labour productivity or materials & energy
productivity
To raise carbon tax for higher carbon productivity
Source: Weizsacker,WRF,2007
3.How: Policy and action into three major
developing fields
Better life
Less resource
input
Compact
urbanization
sharing-oriented
Circular
economy
consumerism
Less waste
output
Factor analysis for decoupling
Limiting
element
Growing
element
Performance
Measurement
Approach
or Model
New
urbanisation
Land
Population Population
/Land
New
industrializati
on
Resource GDP
GDP
/Resource
Circular
Economy
New
consumerism
Resource Service
Service
/Resource
Sharingoriented
Life
Compact
City
3.1 Decoupling#1：Sprawled or compact urbanization
干旱半干旱区占52％
黄土高原64万km2
青藏高原200万km2
岩溶地区90万km2
Sustainable Urbanization will be sharp
Issues：Crowd People, Flat Economy, Hot Environment
Approaches：To raise density, to reduce distance, to break
division
Resource consumption per capita
by development status and population density
25
Construction minerals
Ores and industrial minerals
20
Fossil fuels
Share of world 15
population
Biomass
13%
6%
62%
6%
10
5
High density
Low density
industrial
industrial
industrial
Source: UNEP Decoupling Report 2010
High density
Low density
developing
developing
developing (NW)
Metab.rates: DMC t/cap in yr 2000
New urbanisation #1：in the east vs across
the country
重点开
发区域
New urbanisation #2：city-regions vs noclustered cities
China’s high speed railway plan by 2020
North-South lines
京
京
京
杭
－
－
－
－
沪
圳
哈
深
East-West lines
徐
杭
宁
青
－
－
－
－
兰
湘
蓉
并
New urbaniztion #3: high denstiy cities
within eco-around vs low density cities
Built
area
Agricultu
ral area
Conservation area
New urbanisation #4: mixed
functions vs separate functions
Living
Working
Living Working
Leisure
Leisure
Distance
of driving
Separate functions
Within the walk
and bicycle
Mixed functions
CO2 emission reduction by compact city
• Compact urban:
Reduction from
transportation such as
– Railways
– Short trips
• Compact district:
Reduction from building
such as
– Effective heating/cooling
by district heating system
Compact district
Energy consumption
Passenger traffic (MJ/personkm)
Car
2.46
train
0.21
Japanese values (2002)
3.2 Decoupling#2: Linear or circular
economy for industrialization
Eco-efficiency
Selling of service
Reuse of goods
Jump #3
Recycling of wastes
Jump #2
End of pipe
treatment Jump #1
1980s
1960s
time
1990s
2000s
Economy: from cradle to grave or
cradle?
Level #1：from end-pipe treatment to waste
recycling
Recycling
&
recovering
wastes
A hotel plan on the wasted land
Songjiang, Shanghai
Level #2：from throwaway to reusing
of products
manufacture
resource materials
Loop 1
product
use
Loop 2
waste
Loop 1：to close the loop of goods (reusing of products)
Loop 2：to close the loop of materials （recycling of waste）
Reusing old buildings in urban transition of Shanghai
Left：An old power plant as an
Shanghai Expo site
Right：Old warehouses become
the sites of creative industries
Level#3: from selling product to providing
service
Circular economy emphasizes on value add-on
Low value
High-value
Value add-on
Substance transform
material
product
Linear economy emphasizes on substance production
Public transit system for sharing
vs. private cars for ownership
To increase resource productivity radically
Source: R.Ayres, Tongji University,2007
3.3 Decoupling#3：Ownership-oriented or sharingoriented consumerism
degree of ownership
TOOL HIRE
LEASING/SERVICE
none
rental of product per unit time
as required，eg taxi
individual
shared
ownership of consumer
durables，eg private cars
CONSUMER
GOODS
use per unit time as required;
product not owned by group，
eg public transit
full ownership
degree
of
sharing
specified share of time
use of product owned
by group，eg company bus
CO-OPERATIVE
Energy service instead of energy consumption