Transcript PPT - United Nations Statistics Division

Seminar on Developing a Programme for the
Implementation of the 2008 SNA
and Supporting Statistics in the CARICOM
Region
KINGSTON, JAMAICA,
30 JANUARY - 1 FEBRUARY 2013.
Presentation on the implementation of SNA 2008
in Trinidad and Tobago
Dave Clement
Director of Statistics
Central Statistical Office
Trinidad and Tobago
Overview
 Country Experience
 Classifications in Use
 Business Register
 Base Year Revision
 Short-Term Economic Statistics
 ISIC Rev. 4
Overview
 Supporting Systems –SUT; Informal Sector
 Establishment & Administrative Surveys
 Re-design of Survey Instruments
 Central Bank implementation of BPM6
 NSDS and Infrastructure Development
 Towards Implementation of SNA 2008
 R&D; Weapons systems; Money Lenders
 Restructuring of the CSO
Country Experience in National Accounts
 Consistent and continuous series compiled since
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1966
Three National Accounts Reports with consolidated
accounts of the nation published
PUBLISHED NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
REPORT SERIES:
1951-1954; 1951-1959; 1951-1961; 1952-1962; 19661985;1983-1987; 1981-1991; 1990-1994; 1990-1996;
1995-2001; 2000-2005
Last revision of constant price base year done in
2002 with base year 2000=100
National Economic Accounts prepared in the Nat.
Econ. Accounts Division one of four (4) subject matter divisions of the CSO
T&T economy divided into 20 sectors using a
classification system that is not derived from ISIC in
that it does not follow the ISIC structure but is
related to the ISIC and can be reorganised into ISIC
through a Correlation Table (Table of Equivalence)
Classification in use
 TTSNA departs from ISIC in material respects
 Departure was deliberate
 Highlighted the peculiar structure of the T&T
Economy open, petroleum based economy, which
dominated economic performance exports sales,
government revenue, capital expenditure, foreign
exchange earnings etc.
 Recognised vulnerability of economy to external
shocks
 Needed to monitor dynamic changes in the sector
 TTSNA consolidated all Petroleum and subsequently
Gas related activities into one economic activity
sector (combined ISIC energy activities of
Exploration and Production, Refining, Distribution
and also included service activitie related to the
activities mentioned)
 The traditional character of agricultural production
resulted in separation of activity into Export and
Domestic Agriculture
 Manufacturing activities were disaggregated into
sectors of economic activity meant to highlight the
assembly line like nature of domestic production
 Other deviations also pursued in health and
education, and the services particularly personal
services
Business Register
 System recognised the importance of maintaining an
up to date register of business establishments and
established a Unit adequately staffed (at the time) for
continuous maintenance of the sampling frame.
 Business Register Unit sourced information from any
available source and Pre-surveyed establishments
before classifying to sector.
Base Year Revision
 There have been periodic revisions of the Base Year
for development of constant price series
 Base Year Revisions have not been scheduled or
caused to happen, in response to fundamental
changes in economic structure and the periodicity
has been compromised by non-technical issues
including human and financial resource constraints.
 There is sufficient evidence to suggest that a revision
of the base year and constant price series is overdue.
Short –Term Economic Statistics
Indices of Domestic Production are produced Quarterly.
Indices of Producer Prices are produced quarterly
Index of Retail Sales produced quarterly
Index of Retail Sales of Building Materials produced
quarterly.
 Trade Statistics produced according to monthly
reference. Indices of Average Unit Value of Imports and
Exports produced Quarterly.
 Index of Retail Prices/ Inflation Rate produced monthly.
A Rebased Index with revised weights and indicator
items will be released in 1st Qtr. 2013 with base year
September 2012 = 100
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Short –Term Economic Statistics cont’d.
 All indicators are currently being produced with
dated base years.
 Domestic Production and Producer Prices Indices
under revision, progress interrupted.
 Revision of the Index of Retail Prices close to
finalisation.
ISIC Revision 4
 Revision of derived (TSIC) and related (TTSNA)
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national classifications about to commence
ISIC Correspondence table to be updated.
Revised classification to be applied to updated
establishment frame (based on 2011 Population and
Housing Census).
Revision should be completed by 1st quarter 2013
Data also needed for industry classification for the
2011 Population and Housing Census.
Supporting Systems
 Compilation of Supply and Use Tables
 A balanced SUT was produced for 2000
 Capacity Building efforts with Technical Assistance from
CARTAC to update for 2005 was affected by staff turnover and
staff re-assignment.
 This is a high priority exercise which will probably now be
compiled for a more recent year (maybe 2010 or 2011)
 Informal Sector Measurement
 Official measurement methodology needs to be articulated.
 Dedicated resources must be allocated within the system for
continuous measurement
Quarterly GDP
 Trinidad and Tobago has applied for subscription to
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the IMF’s SDDS
Compilation of QGDP is a pre-requisite for
subscription
Staff were recruited , trained and subsequently left
on two ocasions.
Work has temporarily halted until the human
resource situation is resolved .
QGDP has high priority in the work programme.
Data Sources – Establishment Surveys
 Establishment Surveys are conducted Annually
 Establishment Non-compliance and staff turnover
affecting follow-up have contributed to increased
non-response rate.
 Scientific Sampling methodology of Business
Establishments will be re-introduced in 2013.
 VAT data previously available at the establishment
level no longer available. This has been a serious
setback in preparing Annual GDP estimates.
Other Data Sources
Data are also sourced from
 Administrative records
 Surveys of other Divisions of the CSO, including
Agriculture Surveys, Household Budget Surveys,
 Economic Indicators compiled from monthly and
quarterly surveys
 Data from other statistical sources in the NSS
including Central Bank of T&T; Tourism
Development Company; NIB; Registrar of
Companies; Ministries and Departments of Gov’t.;
Administrative Surveys
 CSO recently undertook an Administrative Survey
exercise directed at all Government Ministries to
identify potential data sources.
 Greater emphasis will be placed on mining
administrative data.
 Data Mining competencies and Tools should be
available to National Economic Accounts Division
 MoUs should be established with potential supplier
agencies
Survey Instruments
 SNA 2008 conceptual treatments and data
requirements will require a careful and detailed
review and re-design of survey instruments.
 Range of Custom-designed survey instruments
currently in use will need to be expanded.
Central Bank Implementation of BPM6
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Expanding coverage of external sector to include
for example mutual funds, pension funds,
expanded data on services, directional FDI by
country inward and outward.
 2. Re-classification of items
 3. Updated list of foreign owned businesses in
Trinidad
 4. Ongoing progress, have a 3-year action plan
developed with the assistance of the IMF, and
the process is ongoing on a phased basis.
Towards Implementation of SNA 2008
 Not yet scheduled in the work programme
 Base Year Revision and SUT compilation have been
given greater priority
 Staff complement needs to be increased
 CSO must prepare another National Accounts report
 Discussion of proposed recommendations of the SNA
2008 and training of staff should be undertaken in
advance of scheduling, at the earliest opportunity to
appreciate the impact and changes needed.
NSDS and Infrastructure Development
 Technical Assistance needed to develop NSDS
 Adequate, permanently employed graduate staff
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complement must be in place
Automation of data compilation using tools like
ERETES
Major Training Investment required
Significant IT Investment needed
Resident Technical Assistance should be in place for
an extended period.
Bi-lateral donor support needed.
R&D; Weapons Systems and Money Lenders
 Research and Development
 Is currently treated as an Intermediate Expense
 SNA 2008 recommends that it be treated as Capital Formation
 This will reduce Intermediates and increase Operating Surplus
and Capital Formation.
 Forms will have to be amended
 Businesses will need to be informed of the treatment
and the need to provide more detailed data. This will
meet resistance because research and development is
important to gain competitive advantage and there
will be concerns about information sharing.
Weapons Systems
 Previously not considered, must now be considered
particularly because of the war on drugs.
 Acquisition of these systems now a reality
 Serious challenge will arise to get the detailed
information needed to properly allocate.
Money Lenders
 Informal Sector for the most part
 Below the radar
 Data collection from the Money Lenders not likely to
be forthcoming
 Access via Household Surveys such as HIES are
possible
 Respondents may be reluctant to share
Restructuring of the CSO
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Cabinet decided in Cabinet Minute No. 2934 dated 01
November 2007 to accepted the Final Report of the ICO of
Statistics Sweden, for the restructuring of the CSOTT.
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Cabinet recommended inter alia:
Establishment of a NSS which covers producers and users of
statistics, data suppliers/respondents, research and training
institutions and their interactions in the provision of data.
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Establishment of a NSO to be the main national body in
charge of the development and management of national
statistics that will be a professionally autonomous
institution with executive agency status.
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Establishment of a Board, an Advisory Council and a new
legal framework which authorizes the required institutional
framework.
Restructuring Programme of Work
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Transformation and performance improvements within
the current organization and structure.
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Review of Draft Regulations and Statistics Act by major
stakeholders.
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Consultancy for the Definition of Supply and
Demand/Design of Core Products and Processes (ToR
developed Statistics Sweden being pursued for this
work stream).
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Current State Human Resources Management
( Management and Planning and Preparation for
Change by addressing management practices and
human resource issues).
 Statistics Sweden will submit its report in Feb 2013.
 The report will make recommendations for the way
forward to the restructured CSO.
 Semi-autonomous body outside of the Public Service
 New Statistics Act