Transcript PPT
Official Statistics in Times of Crisis Walter Radermacher Eurostat 1 Role and objectives of official statistics Sufficient advanced warning: lessons to be learnt Monitoring of the impacts on economy, society and environment Monitoring of political responses and their impacts Foresee and mitigate a possible crisis and support the treatment of damages by means of high quality statistical information and excellent communication Walter Radermacher 2 Complex reality: theory, data, policy Behind the crisis: – Globalised information society: A conflict between over-information and under-capacities => misuse of information, wrong expectations, missing awareness for risks/fuzzyness – Reductionism in economic theory (micro based, linear, uncritical believe in availability of data, theory not falsifiable ) – A “golden veal” in statistics: coherence + speed (fitness for purpose of scientific and political users) A need for: – Globalised macroeconomic theory – More reliability, multidimensional figures (incoherence!), structural information, de-acceleration, quality checks – Comparability of statistical products and services on a global level as well as for large geopolitical zones – Corporate communication of complexity Walter Radermacher 3 Special questions Independence of statistics Differentials between financial sphere and “real economy” – Treatment of quality in price and volume measures – Integration of financial services within the production boundary Off-balance sheet items Valuation – “Market Price” and “Fair Value” principles – Stocks vs. flows Walter Radermacher 4 Monitoring of the impacts New pressures vs. old constraints – Critical resource situation in statistical services (particularly in their laboratories and communication branches) – “More speed!” = more modelling = less quality Multidimensional statistical information – Non-monetary indicators, satellite accounts – Focussed presentation of relevant indicators – A modern approach to communication (interactive tools, WEB2.0 services, open platforms, …), – Courageous explanation of shortcomings, “granulation”, … – International comparability of communication – An aggregate of wealth / balance sheet accounts? Walter Radermacher 5 Further needs to adjust the revision of the SNA? AEG Nov 2008: – In principle “no”; 2008 SNA gives comprehensive guidance – Only some minor clarifications needed • Purchases of governments of “toxic assets” • Nationalisation of a bank by government • Injections of funds by means of preference shares • Government guarantees in return to a fee High Level Forum Nov 2008: choice between imputed vs. observable transactions!! Private accounting principles!! Walter Radermacher 6 GDP and beyond: satellite accounting Sustainable (constraints) development (objective) with three pillars (economic, social and environmental aspects): – – – – SNA = central framework Interconnected satellite accounts Resource allocation for both types of domains Indicators, accounting and basic information with complementary characteristics and quality profiles Agreement on indicator set, e.g. starting with – – – – – Growth of quarterly GDP, Inflation Interest rates Trade balance of goods and services General Government: deficit + debt + follow-up of rescue money Short term and structural business statistics, industrial production index, orders in strategic industries (cars, construction) in months – Prices of strategic goods (energy, raw materials) – Social statistics: unemployment rates, index of poverty Walter Radermacher 7 Proposal for the next steps Now: Exchange of information about ongoing work: extend the format and platform of the informal conference, e.g. – Action plan of the European Statistical System (at http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page?_pageid=3273,7554 8807&_dad=portal&_schema=PORTAL#5) ) – CMFB analysis Short term: Extend the reflections of the High Level Group Medium term: a group should ensure the link between private and national accounting Long-term: improve cooperation between NSIs on a global level, world national accounts and accounts for large geopolitical zones Walter Radermacher 8 Thanks for your attention [email protected] 9