Transcript gechs - Global Environmental Change and Food Systems

The Global Environmental Change
and Human Security Project
“environmental stress, often the result of global environmental change
coupled with increasingly vulnerable societies, may contribute to insecurity”
GECHS Science Plan
INTRODUCTION
Purpose:
• Review development of GECHS.
• Highlight recent activities and planned research
• Discuss GECAFS:CFS - GECHS linkages
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GECHS Origins
• Redefinition of traditional security concepts
• Human security & the Canadian/international
policy agenda
• Environment & economy linkages
• Critical zones mapping
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Key Questions Underlying GECHS
Context:
• What types of environmental
change threaten human security?
• How does environmental change
threaten human security?
• What is the present extent of
insecurity?
Response Options:
What strategies are potentially
available to cope with the insecurities
caused by environmental change?
Analysis:
• Which regions and groups are the
most insecure?
• Why are some strategies selected?
• Can we predict future insecurities?
• Why are some effective?
• Why are some regions and groups
more vulnerable to specific
environmental change than others?
• How can obstacles be overcome?
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Human Security Defined
Human Security is :
• having the options necessary to end,
mitigate or adapt to threats to their human,
environmental and social rights;
• participating in attaining these options; &
• having the capacity and freedom to
exercise these options.
Improving human security
means improving livelihood
Human security is the capacity
to overcome vulnerability
and to respond positively
to environmental change
GECHS Goals
• to advance interdisciplinary, international
research
• to advance policy efforts in the area of
human security & environmental change
• to promote collaborative & participatory
research
• to encourage new methodological
approaches
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Current Project Structure
• International Project Office
University of Victoria (99-02)
Carleton University (02-present)
•Project Chair
Mike Brklacich, Carleton University
• Scientific Steering Committee
Australia, Cambodia, Canada, Costa
Rica, Netherlands, Ghana, Norway,
Russia, USA
• Project Website: www.gechs.org
GECHS ACTIVITIES
• Research Themes & Projects
• Three GEC Vulnerability Case Studies
Human Insecurity Index (Macro)
Double Exposure in India (Macro & Micro)
Food System Vulnerabilities: Canadian Cases (Micro)
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GECHS ResearchThemes & Activities
1.
2.
3.
4.
Conceptual & Theoretical Issues
Environ., Resource Use & HS
Population, Environment & HS
Modelling Environmental Stress &
Human Vulnerability
5. Institutions & Policy Development
in Environmental Security
6. Policy Briefings
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Human Vulnerability:
Science – Policy Linkages
• Identify vulnerable populations/regions
• Assess interventions to reduce human
vulnerability
• Trade-offs between improving adaptive
capacity vs mitigation vs multi-dimensional
responses
Human Insecurity Index
• National Level Study
• Employ Existing Data
• Illustrate Current Potential
& Applications
PI: S. Lonergan
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Reminder: Human Security
Human security is having the capacity
to overcome vulnerability and
respond positively to global
environmental change
Multi-dimensional indicators required
Human Insecurity Indicator Set
Environment
Net energy imports (% of energy use)
Soil degradation (tonnes/yr)
Safe water (% of pop with access)
Arable land (ha/person)
Economy
Real GDP (USD/capita)
Annual GNP growth (%/capita)
Adult literacy rate (% pop 15+)
Value of imports (% of GDP)
Indicator Set Cont’d
Society
Urban pop growth (%/yr)
Young male pop (% 0-14 of tot pop)
Maternal mortality (per 100,000 births)
Life expectancy (yrs)
Institutions
Public expenditures: defense vs
social services (% of GDP)
Gross domestic fixed investment(%GDP)
Degree of democratization (1-7)
Human freedoms index(1-40)
Index of Human Insecurity Example
Source: Lonergan 2000
Climatic Change and Economic Globalization
In Indian Agriculture: Policy Implications
PI: K. O’Brien
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Main Objectives
• Assess vulnerability of agriculture to climate
change and economic changes
• Assess how social and economic policies
enhance or constrain farmers’ ability to adapt
to climate change in the context of
globalization (e.g., by limiting/increasing
choices)
• Suggest measures to reduce vulnerability of
farmers to global change
Context
• Agriculture in India
– 27 % GDP
– 700 million people
– more than 60 % is rainfed cultivation
• Both climate change and economic
globalization are ongoing processes with
uneven impacts.
• Indian agriculture will be confronted by both
processes simultaneously, leading to changing
patterns of vulnerability.
Methodology
• GIS-based vulnerability profile
• Village-level case studies
• Integration of macro- and micro- scale
analyses
• Policy survey and recommendations
Elements of Vulnerability Profiles
Biophysical vulnerability
• Soil degradation and cover
• Flood prone districts
• Groundwater extraction
Climate sensitivity
index (precipitation
variability and dryness)
Vulnerability
index
Trade sensitivity
index (port distance
Socioeconomic vulnerability
• Agricultural workers and
and export- & importlaborers
sensitive crops)
• Gender discrimination
• Literacy
• Infrastructure
• Irrigation availability
Climate
change
vulnerability
Globalization
vulnerability
Climate change
vulnerability map
Data not available
High vulnerability
Low vulnerability
Globalization
vulnerability map
Data not available
Low vulnerability
High vulnerability
Village-Level Case Studies
To assess key factors which
enhance or constrain
farmers’ ability to adapt
Jhalawar district,
Rajasthan
Pilot study in Jhalawar
district, Rajasthan
Data not available
High vulnerability
Low vulnerability
•
•
•
•
semi-arid
84% rural population
30-40% below poverty line
50-70% land under
cultivation
• 21% area irrigated
Case Study Results: 1
Unequal access to markets, irrigation,
credit, and other non-price inputs
Case Study Results: 2
Different Strategies for Coping with Climate Stress
• Shift towards less water-intensive crops
• Change net cropped area
• Seasonal migration to Gujarat for constructionrelated employment
Next Steps
• Feedback of case study results into macrolevel vulnerability profile
• Develop matrix relating globalization,
climate vulnerability, and policies for
agriculture sector
• Recommendations for adaptation to reduce
vulnerability to multiple aspects of global
change.
Eastern Ontario, Canada
Case Studies
•Renfrew County 1995
• RMOC 1998
• On-going 2002-05
PI: M. Brklacich
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Renfrew & RMOC Case Studies
• Whole farm decision making focus
• Embedded climatic change
• Focus group I
• In-depth personal interviews
Renfrew: 30
RMOC: 55
• Interview structure
Farm characteristics
Previous farm changes
Perceived climatic change
Climatic change scenario
•Focus group II
RMOC CASE STUDY:
FARM MGT CHANGES 87-97
100
80
% of
Farms
Responding
60
40
20
0
op
r
C
ck
o
'st
L
Livestock Farms
L
r
u
o
ab
d
an
L
p
o
r
C
s
In
Diversified Farms
RMOC CASE STUDY:
PERCEIVED CLIMATIC CHANGE 77-97
25
20
No of
Farms
15
10
5
0
ed
g
n
a
Ch
p
m
e
T
Pr
Livestock Farms n=27
i
ec
p
r
t
Ex
es
em
Pr
ic
d
e
t.
Diversified Farms n=28
RMOC CASE STUDY: RESPONSE TO
PERCEIVED CLIMATIC CHANGE (77-97)
Climate has changed
NO. REPORTING
LIVESTOCK
DIVERSIFIED
23
21
ADAPTATION
More productive
Spread/min risk
15
5
8
8
4
4
NO ADAPTATION
Not sensitive
Too costly
8
7
0
13
4
3
Livestock farms (n=27) Diversified farms (n=28)
RMOC CASE STUDY:
CONCLUIDNG COMMENTS
• Climate vs other stimuli
• Differential response options
• Differential vulnerability
NEXT STEPS
2002 - 2005
SOCIO-ECONOMIC VULNERABILITY AND
ADAPTABILITY OF AGRICULTURE TO
CLIMATE CHANGE: A COMPARATIVE
ASSESSMENT OF EASTERN ONTARIO,
WEST QUEBEC & UPSATE NEW YORK
Concluding Comments
• Vulnerability as a social science – policy
linkage
• Vulnerability concepts vs applications
• Science to reduce vulnerability to multiple
stressors
• Improving science & policy relationships
GECHS Partnerships
Public Sector Partners
SSHRC, CIDA, IDRC, University of Victoria,
Carleton University, US AID, WWC,
University of Michigan, Norwegian
Research Council, Norwegian Foreign
Ministry, IHDP, ICSU, UNESCO, NATO, APN,
EU ENRICH
Private Sector Partners
Procter & Gamble
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