Transcript China Since Mao

China Since Mao Zedong
Kevin J. Benoy
Hua Kuafeng
• Mao’s successor was a
little known party
functionary.
• He sought a middle
path – somewhere
between the leftist
inclinations of Mao and
those who wanted
greater economic
freedom – people like
Deng Xiaoping.
Hua Guofeng
• The official story,
though apocryphal, is
that just before he died
in 1976, Mao said “with
you in charge of
business I can relax.”
• Nobody else was
present, but the story
became legendary and
was publicized in
posters.
Power Struggle
• Even before Mao died, his
Party was rent with the
succession struggle.
• Led by radical leftist Jiang
Qing (Mao’s wife), the
Gang of Four sought
radical egalitarian
policies.
• Moderates, led by Deng
Xiaoping, wanted to
restore some marketdriven economic activity.
Power Struggle
• Zhou Enlai’s 1976 memorial
service became the focal point of
protest against the policies of
party radicals.
• Wreaths were removed in April
and riots followed.
• Deng was arrested, as he had
been during the Cultural
Revolution.
• However, the army, fearing a
return to the chaos of the
Cultural Revolution, threw their
weight behind more moderate
Hua Guofeng.
• Mao’s death in the same year
resulted in a seemingly smooth
succession.
Power Struggle
• The Gang of Four were attacked and in what might be
described as a coup d’etat, were arrested and given show
trials.
• The verdict was never in doubt. All were convicted,
though none were ultimately executed.
Power Struggle
• Hua announced the Four
Modernizations, insisting
on reforms to agriculture,
industry, science and
technology, which would
make China a powerful
country by the year 2000.
• Such policies had been
enunciated by Zhou Enlai,
but were central to the
ideas of Deng’s reformers.
Power Struggle
• On the other hand, Hua’s
proclamation of the Two
Whatevers – “We will
resuolutely uphold whatever
policy decisions Chairman Mao
made and unswervingly follow
whatever instructions Mao gave”
seemed to contradict the Four
Modernizations.
• Hua was trying desperately to
find a balance.
• However, Hua faced criticism for
his handling of the 1976
demonstrations.
• The 1976-79 Democracy Wall
Movement, which denounced
the excesses of the Cultural
Revolution also undermined Hua.
Power Struggle
• In 1980 Hua lost his position
as head of the CCP and was
replaced by Hu Yaobang – a
protege of Deng.
• Within another year Hua
lost his position of Party
Vice-Chairman when the
post was abolished.
• Although he held no official
high government position,
Deng Xiaoping was the
effective ruler – the
Paramount leader of China.
Deng’s Reforms
• Deng was committed to
change, reversing the leftist
economics of the late Mao
era.
• The Communes were
dismantled and replaced
with the Household
Responsibility System for
farm families – each
household paid a portion of
its produce to the state and
could keep or sell the
surplus – Gaige Kaifang –
“reform and opening up.”
Deng’s Reforms
• Long term leases
effectively privatized
agricultural land
ownership.
• Entrepreneurship was
encouraged.
• Foreigners could
participate in joint
ventures with Chinese
companies – and
eventually wholly own
Chinese companies
under Chinese
regulations in special
economic zones.
Deng’s Reforms
• Foreigners still faced
significant problems
working in an economy
not used to competition –
but they salivated over
the possibilities
presented by a market
consisting of almost a
quarter of the human
race.
• Would early involvement
result in record profits?
Deng’s Reforms
• As Deng said: “what does
it matter if a cat is black
or white, so long as it
catches mice.”
• Economic growth was the
goal and the means of
arriving at it was
subordinated.
• This was like the old
Soviet NEP, but with far
more restrictions
removed.
Deng’s Reforms
• When Hong Kong was
returned to China in
1997, considerable
business expertise came
with it – along with strong
international
connections.
• In addition, Taiwanese
businessmen saw huge
potential in China and
these Mandarin speakers
jumped in.
Military Reforms
• The stress on economic
growth brought changes
to China’s military.
• The weakness of a force
relying on quantity, rather
than quality, was
apparent in the 1979
border war with Vietnam.
• The roots of the conflict
lay in the Sino-Soviet split
and Vietnam’s choosing
Soviet, rather than
Chinese, clientship.
Military Reforms.
• Furthermore, Vietnam
intervened in Cambodia to end
the genocidal acts of the
Khmer Rouge – who were
Chinese clients.
• Speaking to American
President Carter, Deng
Xiaoping said: ``children are
not listening, it is time they be
spanked.
• 200,000 Chinese troops
invaded Vietnam.
• Despite their huge numerical
advantage, the Vietnamese
blunted the attack and
inflicted heavy Chinese
casualties.
Military Reforms
• The experience led China to
embark on modernizations.
Huge numbers and old
equipment were not enough.
• Large numbers were cut from
the armed forces and more
resources went into
technological updates.
• This involved international
purchases and improved
home-grown technology.
• The success of Western arms
in the Gulf Wars confirmed
China`s belief that quality
must be stressed over
quantity.
Military Reforms
• China took advantage of
Russia`s need for cash in
the 1990`s, buying the
latest generation Soviet
aircraft.
• They also upgraded their
navy to build a true bluewater capability to
project power offshore.
• In 2010, China unveiled a
home-made stealth
fighter.
Freeing the Economy
• Before liberalization in
1979, economic growth
rates were a respectable
5.3% annually.
• Since then, astonishing 10%
growth rates have been
more common.
• Even the terrible global
downturn of 2008 only
reduced growth to 9.6% -- a
drop from 14.2% the
previous year.
Freeing the Economy
• Since reforms began,
China’s economy doubled in
size every 7 years – a rate
paralleling and surpassing
Japan’s Jimmu Boom.
• At the time of writing
(2013) China’s economy
ranks 2nd in the world and is
poised to surpass the USA
around 2020 in terms of
purchasing power parity.
Freeing the Economy
• More importantly this growth
came without surrendering
control to foreign companies.
• Investment was enormous but
China continues to control its
major industries and financial
sectors.
• China is the largest recipient of
foreign investment and holds
the second largest foreign
exchange reserve in the world -$1 trillion in 2006.
• It is now the world’s
manufacturing heart.
Freeing the Economy
• China is now
increasingly investing in
global resources –
African minerals and
Canadian carbon
products – with
government owned
corporations doing the
investing to meet
Chinese national needs.
Domestic Affairs
• Part of China now
exhibits European levels
of prosperity –
especially Shanghai.
• In 1978 China was one
of the poorest
countries, with per
capita GDP about 1/40th
of that of the USA.
• Today is around 1/5th.
Domestic Affairs
• Such growth has not occurred
without stress.
• Agriculture’s share of the
workforce dropped from 69%
to 50% in the first 6 years of
reform as people moved to
town and village enterprises.
• Urban growth followed, but
government restrictions on
personal mobility prevented
the growth of slums as
happened in other countries.
Domestic Affairs
• In 2011 about 40% of
China’s population was
urban.
• Another 350 million people
will live in cities by 2025.
• In 1980 there were no
skyscrapers in Shanghai; in
2011 there were twice as
many as in New York.
• The Chinese call it “Tan da
bing” – the spreading
pancake – urban sprawl.
Domestic Affairs
• However, the Chinese are
well aware of the
problems of rapid
urbanization and are
trying harder than most
countries to use green
technologies and invest in
public transportation.
• Even so, the rapid growth
has led to terrible
pollution from the use of
coal.
Domestic Affairs
• Development has created two Chinas – the prosperous cities of the East and
the largely poor rural rest.
• Until 1994 the state had a policy of “reform without losers,” where unprofitable
state enterprises were propped up to keep employment stable – the “iron rice
bowl” as the Chinese referred to it.
• After 1995 this was abandoned and bankruptcies increased.
• State employment dropped from 17% to 12% of the workforce.
• Productivity rose, but so too did the risk of social dislocation if growth did not
continue.
• Explosive economic growth occurred elsewhere in the world – though never on
this scale.
• A slowdown must be inevitable. Some political change is also needed for
growth to continue.
• Rule of Law must exist and corruption must be reduced if investment is to
continue.
• The global consequences of social breakdown in China are terrible to
contemplate.
Political Affairs
• The Chinese largely
accepted economic
growth and improved
lifestyles as
compensation for lack
of political freedom.
• True, there was a strong
democracy movement
in Hong Kong since it
rejoined China in 1997 –
but meaningful gains
have been few.
Political Affairs
• For a brief time, in the heady
days of Gorbachev led
reforms in Europe, students
took to the streets of China
too – in the Spring of 1989.
• As in Eastern Europe, it
looked as though political
change might come.
• Demonstrators even
occupied the heart of Beijing
– Tienanmen Square, starting
in April.
Political Affairs
• The death of reformer Hu
Yaobang served as the trigger
for events.
• The causes were high inflation,
party corruption and a lack of
democracy in China.
• At first the government did little
– until sympathy
demonstrations erupted around
the country.
• Divisions in the party leadership
were overcome and Deng and
his supporters cracked down.
Political Affairs
• On May 20, Martial Law
was declared.
• After a false start, in
which local troops were
reluctant to attack, new
forces were brought in
from the countryside and
a bloody suppression
ensued.
• Hundreds, perhaps
thousands, died and were
injured.
Political Affairs
• Tanks and armoured
personnel carriers
crashed through
makeshift barricades.
• Live ammunition was
fired.
• On the night of June 3-4
it was clear that China’s
economic liberalization
would not be followed
by political freedom.
Foreign Relations
• The Tienanmen Square
Massacre was a public
relations disaster for China –
but it did not disrupt
economic growth.
• Curiously it may have helped.
• Foreign investors saw that
workforce discipline would be
maintained by the
government.
• Labour disputes were as
unlikely as political
demonstrations following the
crackdown.
Foreign Relations
• China/Vietnam relations
remain tense – mainly over
control of offshore resources
in the South China Sea.
• This conflict involves other
regional competitors too –
the Philippines, Malaysia, and
even Japan.
• The ongoing issue of Chinese
sovereignty over Taiwan is
another challenge to regional
and global peace.
The Future
• Chinese citizens have traded
freedom for increasing
prosperity. Will this continue?
• Even in good times there have
been protests about corrupt
officials and human rights
abuses. Does this hint at
bigger trouble to come?
• Chinese workers toil longer
hours for less pay than their
Western counterparts. Will
they continue to do so?
The Future
• Can the government
continue to manage
the high rate of
urbanization?
• Can it replace
polluting old
industries with
greener alternatives
– before doing
irreparable harm to
nature?
The Future
• The legacy of the One Child
Policy in China is an oddly
unbalanced population.
• There are far more males than
females – and brought up in
families that dote on these
little emperors, one wonders
whether the Confucian work
ethic will continue in China.
Military analysts worry if they
have the toughness needed to
be effective soldiers.
• In addition, China has an aging
population.
The Future
• Though China has developed a
moderate ability to project
power overseas, it still lacks
anything remotely close to
America’s capabilities.
• China’s military spending is still
under 1/3 of what the US
spends.
• Can China ensure that globally
sourced resources are
maintained without the military
capacity that guaranteed such
supplies to the US?
• The future of China remains an
enigma
finis