Transcript Current status of National Accounts in Cambodia

International Workshop
From Data to Accounts: Measuring
Production in National Accounting
Beijing, China,8-10 June 2009
Current Status of National Accounts
Cambodia
Oeur Sophal and Yim Saonith
National Institute of Statistics
Cambodia
Background of Cambodian National Accounts
• The Annual National Accounts of Cambodia
(ANAC) was established in 1993 under the
project to Develop the Statistical System for the
National Institute of Statistics with technical
assistant from ADB .
• ANAC primary based on 1968 UN System of
National Accounts and continuing works to adopt
the 1993 SNA.
• Two methods were compiled namely:
Production and Expenditure approaches and
both expressed in current and constant prices.
Background of Cambodian National Accounts
• The ANAC was rebased in 2000.
• Technical assistant from IMF since 2001
• In late 2005 the Quarterly National
Accounts (QNA) was released first time
and this work is continued onward.
• Time lag is 6 months for annual national
accounts and 3 months for quarterly
national accounts.
The Estimation of National Accounts
• Two approaches were used to estimate
the GDP :
– GDP by production approach
– GDP by expenditure approach
• Both approaches were expressed in
current and constant prices
• The constant prices refer to the values for
current year valued at base year 2000
The Estimation of National Accounts
• GDP by production: Sum of Gross Value
Added (GVA) of :
– Agriculture sector
– Industry sector
– Services sector
– and tax on production less subsidies and
FISIM
The Estimation of National Accounts
• GDP Expenditure : Components of GDP
expenditure are:
–
–
–
–
–
–
HFCE
GFCE
NPISH
GFCF
Change in inventories
Import-Export
Rebased and linking
• The national accounts will be rebased to
the 2007 reference period.
Issues:…
• Data sources
– Survey data are not enough and frequently
– Administrative data have much improvement but
quality still a problem and late.
– Other study data not frequently update.
• Methodology
– Methodology for new data sources
• Timeliness: data provides by relevant
organizations come in late. National accounts
compilers have to rush to be on date.
Overview of agricultural statistics
• The statistical data on agriculture are
collected and compiled through periodic
reports obtained from enterprises,
institutions, households and administrative
records by the ministry of Agriculture
Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF).
Overview of agricultural statistics
• The data cover mainly crop production,
livestock, fishery and forestry. Data collection is
based on reports that require village heads,
commune heads and district and province
agriculture officers to provide monthly data for
crop progress in prescribed formats. The data
are compiled at each level from the reports
submitted from the lower-level administrative
unit and are transmitted through the hierarchy to
the central office at MAFF (Department of
Planning and Statistics).
Surveys on Agriculture by MAFF:
•
•
•
•
•
•
Sample surveys on livestock
Crop Cutting Survey
Abattoir and grain mills surveys
Crops yield survey
Cost of production survey
Agricultural Marketing Price
The Estimation of Agriculture GVA
• Agriculture sector: methods using to calculate
gross value added for agriculture are:
– Gross Output
– Gross value added ratio (GVAR)= GVA / Output
– GVA = Output x GVAR
– Commodity flow technique for counter check
• Price indices were use to deflate current price to
get constant prices
The Estimation of Agriculture GVA
• Crops
Output = volumes x price per unit
- Volumes data from MAFF
- Prices from NIS(CPI) and MAFF
- Adjusted to producer prices
- GVA = Output x GVAR
The Estimation of Agriculture GVA
• Livestock
Output = volumes x price
- Volume from MAFF
- Prices from NIS/MAFF
- Output = sales + in farm slaughter + increase in stocks
Livestock model
- Total available animals = beginning inventory + animals born +
animals bought
- Animals born assumed to be a percentage of females
- Animals bought assumed to be a percentage of beginning
inventory
- Also estimate farm slaughter as a percentage of available animals
- Also make an assumption about deaths
- Sales are the residual
- GVA = Output x GVAR
The Estimation of Agriculture GVA
• Fishery
Output = volumes x price
- Volumes from MAFF
- Retail prices from NIS, MAFF
- Adjusted to producer prices
- GVA = Output x GVAR
The Estimation of Agriculture GVA
• Forestry
Output = volume x price
- Volumes:
Exports of logs and sawn timber
Firewood and charcoal rated forward from SESC
- Prices
Logs and sawn timber - export price
Firewood - CPI
Charcoal - MAFF
- GVA = Output x GVAR
Evolution of agricultural sector in
GDP 1998-2007
Share (%) of Agriculture Sector in GDP, 1998-2007
50.0%
44.8%
45.0%
41.5%
37.8%
40.0%
36.2%
33.3%
35.0%
33.7%
30.6%
31.1%
2004
2005
30.0%
29.6%
28.5%
2006
2007
25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Gross value added of agricultural
sector
GVA for Agriculture, 1998-2007
Constant 2000 Price, Billion Cambodia Riels
8,000
6,476
Billion Riels
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,967 5,078 5,058 5,238 5,108
6,830
7,184
5,645 5,596
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Thank you for your attention