Transcript English - World Bank

Facing the Challenges
of African Growth
Opportunities, Constraints and
Strategic Directions
Benno J. Ndulu
Poverty in Africa, is largely a
growth challenge



10 percent of the world’s population, but 30
percent of the world’s poor.
Extreme poverty in Africa has increased
from 36% of the population in 1970 to
around 50% in 2000.
Nearly one in two Africans (300 million
people in total) is poor: spending less than
1$ a day on basic necessities of life.
– p.c. income, was
about half that of
EAP in 1960
– by the end of the
20th century, it
was less than
one-fifth of EAP
15000
10000
East Asia and Pacific
6600
Other Developing
3508
Sub-Saharan Africa
2782
2589
1423
0
Even after adjusting
for differences in
purchasing power
14929
5000

in Africa grew at
0.5% in contrast
to 2.5% for other
developing
regions.
GDP per capita, 1996 PPP$

Divergence in growth of incomes:
from other regions
1960-2004
Per capita income
1960
1970
1980
year
1990
Data source: The World Bank WDI database.
Note: GDP per capita in 1996 international dollars
2000
African Countries – Missed out
on two decades of global growth
Growth Path 1960-2004
Figure 2.1: Smoothed average growth in real GDP per capita
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Countries with full set of observations
1960
1970
1980
year
41 SSA
SSA, pop-wt
1990
57 Other
Other, pop-wt
2000
Same Endowments - Different Paths
- Different Outcomes
Income per capita
15441
10000
15000
PPP adjusted, 1996 international $
5000
Mauritius
3084
1624
Cote d'Ivoire
0
1606
1960
1970
1980
year
1990
2000
Income per capita
•Cote d’Ivoire and Mauritius
are both coastal and
resource poor countries
• pursued very different
development paths
•with very different
outcomes.
10000
PPP adjusted, 1996 international $
4000
6000
8000
8936
2000
Botswana
1167
902
Zambia
0
984
1960
1970
1980
year
1990
2000
•Zambia and Botswana are
both landlocked and
resource rich
•Pursued different
approaches to managing
resource rents
•To very different results
Diverse Growth Experience and
Results: 1960-2004
Figure 2.9: Growth experience of countries in SSA
4.00
6.00
BWA
MUS
CPV
LSO
2.00
GAB SYC
-2.00
0.00
UGA
MRT
TZA
MWI
SDN
KEN
BFA
GMB
CMR
ZAF
TGO
NGA
NAM
ETH
BEN
TCD
MOZ
RWA
CIV
BDI
MLI
GIN
GHA
SEN
AGO
COM
ZMB
CAF
SLE
GNB
MDG
NER
COG
ZAR
0.00
2.00
4.00
6.00
8.00
Ratio of per capita income in 2004 to per capita income in 1960
10.00
•Per Capita Income in
Nine countries in 2004<
that in 1960
• 13 middle income
countries have incomes
in 2004 between 60%
(SA) and 9 fold
(Botswana) the levels in
1960
Three key questions

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(1) what are the opportunities and hence,
options, for growth available to the diverse
range of African countries?
(2) what are the major constraints to
exploiting these opportunities? and
(3) what are the strategic choices to be
made by African governments and their
partners to exploit these opportunities?
Five Key Conclusions from 45 Years
of African Growth experience
(i)
–
–
(ii)
slower productivity growth more sharply distinguishes
African growth from other regions
Same level of investment generates 1/3 to ½ of growth in Asia
Look beyond conditions for raising investment levels
policy and governance accounts for between 25% and 50%
of growth difference with other regions
(iii) disadvantages from geography and resource curse
accounts for another one third of the growth gap
(iv) trading partners’ growth important for African growthsuggests export-led growth
(v) Age dependence a big drag on growth – speed up
demographic transition
Comparative Investment
Productivity
Incremental Output from a Dollar of Investment
Decade
1960-69
1970-79
1980-89
1990-99
2000-02
AFR
EAP
0.326
0.243
0.151
0.074
0.109
ECA
0.301
0.316
0.146
0.191
0.237
LAC
0.263
0.215
0.109
-0.229
0.258
0.259
0.247
0.085
0.143
0.048
MNA SAR
0.540 0.314
0.239 0.225
0.106 0.235
0.214 0.220
-0.022 0.175
Breaking out of the low growth
syndrome- Daunting but a real possibility

Asia’s phenomenal growth experience instructive

Mauritius, Botswana and Seychelles, have done it and
so have 10 other African middle income countries

Since 1995, more than a third of the countries in SSA
are growing at rates over 5 percent

Can take advantage of being a late starter –lessons
from success and ICT

But also face disadvantages - from steep competition
from emerging economies
Distribution of Opportunities
Figure 3.1: Sub-Saharan Africa
Geographical Distribution
Coastal, resource rich
26%
26%
Landlocked, resource rich
6%
43%
Coastal, resource poor
Landlocked, resource poor
Diverse endowments present
different opportunities for export-led
growth

Manufactured Export-led growth
– the Asian model for coastal countries

Natural resource-based equitable growth
– the Botswana model for resource-rich exporting countries.

Natural resource-based agricultural export
diversification and industrialization
– The Chilean model of agribusiness and the Malaysian model of agro
industrialized export

Labor export and high value service sector
for landlocked – the Indian model
Critical areas of action
The Four Big “I”s
o
Improving the investment climate
o
Infrastructure: Embarking on a “Big
Push” in investment
o
Innovation for increasing productivity
o
Institutional capacity
o Individual skills, organizational effectiveness, and
rules of the game
Investment Climate – Costs of
doing Business
Energy Costs and Power Outages
Figure 3.3
Energy costs and power outages
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Kenya
Uganda
Tanzania
Zambia
Energy, % of firm costs (average)
Senegal
Benin
Morocco
Power outages, % output lost (average)
Source: World Bank Enterprise Surveys, 2001-2005
China
Investment Climate – A Menu of
Actions

Mega focus on reducing indirect costs
to firms
– Mainly infrastructure related – with energy and
transport topping the list

But also reducing and mitigating risk
– particularly affecting security of property – related
to crime, political instability, contract enforcement
& corruption.

Development of cohesive investment
areas
– regional collective good reputation (peer
pressure), policy coordination and connectivity
Infrastructure: A Big Push
necessary to make a difference

Particular focus on Landlocked countries
– which host nearly 40% of the African population.

A regional approach to coordinate cross-border
infrastructure investment, management, and use e.g. power pooling
in Southern Africa; cross country pipeline in West Africa
– 48 small economies with small markets – average GDP $3 billion;
– each country sharing borders with four neighbors

Enhanced regulatory capacity
– efficient use and maintenance of assets
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Promote private-public partnerships –
– combine public investment in infrastructure assets and
– operational efficiency of private management
Innovation Key for Productivity
Growth and Competitiveness
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Opportunity to leap-frog –
– technology a global public good
– exploit the advantages of a late starter
ICT is now the main technological driver for
productivity growth
 Investment
in ICT improves competitiveness
 Investment in higher education boosts
competitiveness

Hence Investment in Higher Education and
in ICT are key parts of the growth agenda
Institutional Capacity
Priority Areas
Enforcement of Contracts e.g.
commercial courts
 Exercise of voice for scrutiny of public
policy and action – civil society, media
and parliament
 Enhancing Revenue Transparency in
resource rich countries – e.g. EITI
 Prevention of corruption as a countrydriven agenda – incl. checks & balances
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5 Key messages to Africans
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(i) First a message of hope: the development
challenges Africa faces are daunting but not
insurmountable.
– Asia’s and even in African success instructive;
– advantage of late starters

(ii) Africans will have to shape their own
destiny – and this includes all Africans
wherever they are in the world.
– taking the lead but more importantly to be creative, bold and decisive
– make this an inclusive undertaking across all stakeholders.
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(iii) Unorthodox approaches can engender
results –See East Asian experiences.
– Greater focus on government errors of ommission (what
governments have not done to spur development)
Key Messages CONT’D
(iv) Leadership has a defining role in
achieving success – putting a huge
weight on how leaders are chosen and
more importantly how they are held
accountable for results.
 (v) Need for collective action to spur
good reputation, agglomeration
economies and provide regional
public goods

2 Key Messages to Development
Partners
(i) More and better aid
 Critical to close the widening
infrastructure gap and address most
pressing human development needs.
 Progress in fulfilling the Gleneagles
promise has been slow and needs
new vitality
 Look for innovative public-private
partnerships to leverage private
capital
Message to Dev Partners contd
(ii) a supportive global trading
environment
 Unsuccessful Doha Round
disappointing
 and suspension of the World Trade
Organization talks will hit poor SubSaharan African countries hardest
 Need to get both back on rails
In Conclusion…
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Each country situation is unique and
requires specific analysis of constraints and
opportunities.
But can learn from similarities for strategic
directions.
Emphasis is on energizing private
investment in the short to medium run and
fostering efficiency and competitiveness as
preconditions for export-led growth.
International Support – ODA and conducive
trading environment key complements to
African drive to growth