Transcript 以效率原则分解碳强度目标的结果、方法与政策建议

the Input-Output and Emission Reduction in China
Zhang Yaxiong 张亚雄
Dept. of Economic Forecasting, State Information Center
No.58 Sanlihe Road, Beijing, P.R.China 100045
国家信息中心经济预测部
100045北京市西城区三里河路58号
Email: [email protected]
Contents
•
•
The IOT compilation in China
The applications in climate change study in SIC
•
•
•
•
Estimation of China’s net export emission
Sectoral competitiveness impacts of carbon pricing policy
China’s carbon intensity target provincial dis-aggregation
Summary
China’s National and provincial level Input-Output tables
the NBS national and provincial IO tables
Year
Type of the Table
Number of
industries
1987
Benchmark table
139
1990
Updated table
1992
the SIC national IO tables
Year
Non-competitive import type IO tables
1985
√ (106 sectors, updated table)
33
1990
√ (106 sectors, updated table)
Benchmark table
119
1995
√ (78 sectors, updated table)
1995
Updated table
33
2000
√ (142 sectors, updated table)
1997
Benchmark table
124
2002
√ (122 sectors import matrix)
2000
Updated table
40
2005
√ (133 sectors, updated table)
2002
Benchmark table
122
2005
Updated table
42
2007
Benchmark table
135
competitive import type tables
China’s Multi-provincial IO (CMPIO) models
•
SIC’s first development work: 1997 China’s 8-region, 30-sector multi-regional IO
model (SIC, 2005)
•
The features of the 2002 and 2007 CMPIO
•
•
•
•
the entire development work is based on 30 provinces (municipalities, autonomous
regions), various regional versions of MRIO model can be made after aggregating
different province groups
estimation of interregional trade coefficients: we propose specific model based on
entropy maximizing and gravity models
in cooperation with Department of National Accounts of National Bureau of Statistics
(NBS), we modify interregional transaction matrix, adopting the basic survey data
reflecting inter-province inflow and outflow in “National Input-Output Survey 2007”
when conducting balance adjustment, each province’s table are fully used in total control
that the sum of all provinces’ tables equals to national table
Estimating the Net Export Emission Between China and European
Union，United States, Japan in 2007
•
Background
• Strong inter-relationship between climate change and external trade
• Within the fast growth of energy consumption and CO2 emission in China, a
big part of that is for the export production
• Emission data is based on production side, while not take into account trade
•
Embodied energy：the direct energy consumption within one industry (commodity)
plus all indirect energy consumption within its intermediate inputs
Embodied emissions: the carbon emissions during the embodied energy using
Net export emission = export embodied carbon emissions – import embodied carbon
emissions
•
•
Estimating the Net Export Emission Between China and European
Union，United States, Japan in 2007
Intermediate Use
Domestic
Final use
Processing
Industry 1 … Industry n Industry 1 … Industry n
Domestic
Export
Output
Sector 1
DD
x11
…
DD
x1n
DP
x11
…
DP
x1n
F1D
F1ED
X 1D
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
Sector n
xnDD
1
…
DD
xnn
xnDP
1
…
DP
xnn
FnD
FnED
X nD
Sector 1
0
…
0
0
…
0
0
F1EP
X 1P
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
Sector n
0
…
0
0
…
0
0
FnEP
X nP
Sector 1
D
M11
…
M1Dn
P
M11
…
M1Pn
MF1D
0
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
…
0
Sector n
M Dn1
…
M Dnn
M Pn1
…
M Pnn
MFnD
0
Value added
V1D
…
VnD
V1P
…
VnP
Total Input
X 1D
…
X nD
X 1P
…
X nP
D
Intermediate input
P
Import
Estimating the Net Export Emission Between China and European
Union，United States, Japan in 2007
The adjustment of the CO2 emission from production side to consumption side
（100 millions tons）
Production Side
70.0
62.4
62.5
56.2
60.0
Cosumption Side
60.0
46.5
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
12.6
13.7
10.0
0.0
China
USA
Japan
Production side emission data from EIA
EU
49.3
Estimating the Net Export Emission Between China and European
Union，United States, Japan in 2007
China’s export share and emission share by 20 Industries
Trade share(%)
Emission share(%)
Other service
Transport and Trade
Construction
Electric power、Gas and Water
Other Manufacture
Computer
Transport Equipment
Machinery
Metal Products
Nonmetallic Mineral
Chemical
Petro
Paper
Timbers and Furniture
Textile and Apparel
Foods and Tobacco
Other Mining
Crude oil
Mining
Agr
0
5
10
15
20
25
Sectoral competitiveness impacts of carbon pricing policy
20$/tCO2 on US economy (CS report: Grubb et al., 2009) 20 euro/tCO2 on UK economy (CS report: Hourcade et al., 2007)
20 euro/tCO2 on German economy (CS)
20$/tCO2 in Japan (CS: Grubb, 2009)
Sectoral competitiveness impacts of carbon pricing policy
China’s sectoral competitiveness impact (100yuan/tCO2, roughly 11-12 euro/tCO2)
Value at stake(Co2 cost increase relative to value added)（%）
35
Electricity &
Heat
Petroleum refining &
coking
30
Direct Cost
Transport&stock
&post
Plastic product
Oil and gas
exploitation
Chemical fibre
Ferrous
Metal
20
Indirect Cost
Non-ferrous
metal
Gas
production
25
Non metal
mineral product
Pulp &
paper
Basic
Chemical
Other mining
Coal mining
water
supply
15
Metal product
Non ferrous metal
mining
Rubber
product
10
Ferrous metal
mining
textile
5
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Value added relative to GDP(%)
20
22
24
26
28
30
Sectoral competitiveness impacts of carbon pricing policy
•
•
•
•
Sectors affected:
– Electricity: depending on whether pass-through can be made
– Iron&steel, aluminum, chemicals, etc.: need further sub-sectoral studies for
making necessary compensatory measures
Choice of carbon price
– Low start rate is safety in terms of competitiveness and macro impacts
– High start rate would need careful designs on revenue use/compensatory
measures, etc.
Forms of carbon price
– ETS on industry and electricity; CT on household and transport?
International Aspect
– Carbon leakage if low start CP at domestic
– Possibility of introducing short-term (comparable) explicit CP into export?
China’s carbon intensity target provincial dis-aggregation
•
It should be considered together on how to dis-aggregate the target and how to
achieve the target, and the principle is to link the equity and efficiency together
•
If there is no carbon market: the target dis-aggregation should base on efficiency,
while to achieve the equity through transfer payment and other policy tools during
the implementation
•
If there exists the carbon market: the target dis-aggregation should base on equity,
while to achieve efficiency through the market
China’s carbon intensity target provincial dis-aggregation
EU Kyoto targets under burden sharing arrangement, compared to actual change in emissions
EU Kyoto targets under burden sharing arrangement,
compared to actual change in emissions
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
-40%
-50%
Actual change 1990-2008
Target 1990 - 2008/12
遵循效率原则的目标分解结果
Target dis-aggregation method based on cost minimization
2005 年能耗强度
地区 Provinces
En Cons/GDP 2005
2005 年能耗强度
40%目标的比重 Ratio
of reduction of carbon
全国 45%
25.2
27.2
66.6
36.6
41.4
45.9
河北 HeBei
0.79
1.05
1.98
36
40.7
46.2
上海 ShHai
0.89
32.1
34.9
64.5
江苏 JS
0.92
33.3
36.3
62.7
浙江 ZhJ
0.90
41.1
46.1
福建 FuJ
37.1
山东 ShanD
0.94
1.32
广东 GuangD
地区 Provinces
En Cons/GDP 2005
各省碳强度总目标
Provincial target
BAU 情景碳强度降幅占
40%目标的比重 Ratio
of reduction of carbon
全国 40%
全国 45%
28.8
31.6
59.2
重庆 ChongQ
1.60
1.43
35.5
40.4
43
西南 贵州 GuiZh
2.81
64.1
72.7
43.8
云南 YunN
1.74
53.4
61.6
36.1
49.5
广西 GuangX
1.22
30.4
33.9
51.3
41.9
46.2
陕西 ShannX
1.42
31.8
35.3
53
40.2
44.2
58.7
甘肃 GanS
49.5
55.1
53.1
0.79
33.6
36
69.6
青海 QingH
2.26
3.07
36.5
38.4
77.6
海南 HaiN
0.92
25.1
27.6
59.5
宁夏 NingX
4.14
59
66.2
49.6
山西 ShanXi
3.01
49.9
56.3
47.2
新疆 XinJ
2.11
53.8
64.1
20
安徽 AnH
1.22
41.8
48.5
33.2
内蒙古 NeiM
2.48
54.5
61.3
47.9
江西 JiangX
1.06
29.3
33
47
辽宁 LiaoN
39.9
46.8
1.38
50.4
59.1
28.7
吉林 JiL
1.69
1.47
35.4
河南 HeN
45
52.4
31.7
湖北 HuBei
1.53
30.6
33.9
55.3
黑龙江 HeiLJ
1.46
44.2
51.4
32
湖南 HuNan
1.47
28.3
31.1
58.7
北京 BJ
天津 TJ
中部
BAU 情景碳强度降幅占
全国 40%
(吨标煤/万元)
东部
各省碳强度总目标
Provincial target
(吨标煤/万元)
intensity in BAU
四川 SiCh
西北
东北
intensity in BAU
主要结论1：减排目标较大的省份主要集中在西部和东北等区域
Result 1: the higher target provinces are mainly in the western and northeastern regions
主要结论2：不同地区完成减排目标的方式不同，发达省份更多地依靠经济发展方式转型；而欠发达地区则将主
要依赖未来的专门减排政策
Result 2: advanced provinces tend to rely on the successful transfer of economic development pattern,
while under development provinces need additional particular mitigation policies
遵循效率原则的碳强度目标分解方法
Target dis-aggregation method based on cost minimization

效率原则：遵循减排成本最小化原理开展碳强度目标分解。如果各省在完成其减排目标时，所做出额
外减排努力的边际减排成本相等，那么全国的减排总成本将实现最小
 The carbon intensity target could be separated into 2 parts, where A is the provincial
carbon intensity change within BAU scenario, B is the one which need additional
efforts to achieve. It will induce additional cost. The total cost will be minimized if the
marginal abatement costs (MAC) for each provinces are equal
Carbon
intensity
A
B
BAU
Target
2005
2020
T
A：存在于BAU（Business As Usual）情景
中。主要体现了各省所处的经济社会发展阶
段、资源禀赋变化、能源生产效率改进等
the BAU scenario reflects growth trend,
technique efficiency, resource endowment,
etc.
B：通过额外减排努力实现的减排幅度。需要
各省在未来采取专门的减排政策，因此需要
付出额外的减排成本。这些措施包括“上大
压小”等行政手段，以及碳税、可再生能源
补贴基金等经济手段。
To achieve B needs new policy and pay
additional cost
通过额外努力实现的目标分解方法
Additional reduction potential estimation

基本思路：测算各省的技术减排潜力。潜力越大的省份，以较低成本完成的减排机会越多，因此应分
得的减排目标就越多
 If the MAC is lower, the additional reduction potential by technology improvement
will be bigger. Thus the provincial target B will be larger

各省的技术减排潜力: 该省各行业技术减排潜力的加权之和。某省某行业的技术减排潜力表示为其
单位增加值排放量与全国先进水平之差。差距越大，表明该省该行业的现有技术越落后，其减排
潜力也越大
 Provincial reduction potential by technology improvement: it is the weighted sum
of each industry’s reduction potential by technology improvement, which defined
as the difference of CO2 emission per Value added with domestic advanced level
Summary
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IOT
Trade
Competitiveness
Climate change
Emission reduction
ETS
Thank you！