Transcript Presentation - Centre for Science and Environment

'Urban growth:
Contemporary challenges'
Centre for Science and Environment
New Delhi,
June 22, 2009
Urban roots
Cities emerged
along the riverine
trade routes –
linked to
indigenous
economy
Patna: A thriving trading
city during 17th and 18th
century
Traditional cities decayed as colonial
port cities grew in prominence
Chennai
Kolkata
Beginning of public transport and
also motorisation
We built walkable cities
Kolkata
Unprecedented urban growth
1950-2006: The urban population of the world has increased
from 739 million to 3.2 billion. By 2025 around 65 per cent of
the world’s population is projected to live in cities. By 2010
more than 75 per cent of the world’s urban population will
live in poorer countries (State of the World 2007).
More than 40 per cent of the world children are estimated to
be living in polluted cities of developing world (WHO).
A billion more will be added over the next three decades in
Asia – almost adding a whole new India. More than half of
them will be living in cities
What about India?
Urban growth: A mixed trend
Exponential annual growth in urban population during 1940s,
50s and 70s … Agrarian crisis pushed people out of
villages. They came to cities in search of livelihood …..
80s and 90s: Urban growth rate drops – from 3.8% in the
70s to 2.7% in 90s. Share of urban population increased
slowly from 17.3%in 1951 to 27.78% in 2001. The share of
migrants in the total incremental urban population dropped
from 21.7% in 80s to 21.0% in the 90s. This co-relates well
with drop in the rate of urbanisation during the nineties.
Urban population is projected to grow in the coming
decade.
The total urban population is already as big as 287.56
million which is almost equal to the total population of the
United States.
Problem of skewed growth
Top heavy growth: The million plus cities (Class I) are growing faster than
the smaller cities – growth is not evenly distributed. Bulk of industrial
and manufacturing concentrate around a few large cities…..
Asymmetrical growth: Total towns increased from 1827 in 1901 to 4368
in 2001. Million plus cities increased from 24 in 1901 to 393 in 2001.
Share of urban population in these cities increased from 26% in 1901
to 69% in 2001. The remaining 30% distributed in the remaining 3979
towns and cities.
Stagnation at the bottom: The transformation of rural settlement as urban
centres is not so pronounced. Lower rung towns largely stagnating.
Some have grown due to infrastructure investments and rural to urban
migration.
Shadow growth: Top rung cities that have grown due to in-migration and
aerial expansion show strong trend towards suburbanisation.
Inequity, social and environmental
imbalances in cities
Big cities have not been able to absorb labor and investments
within the formal sector of economy leading to problem of
slums and informal economy. 21% of urban population live
in slums. Nearly 40-50 per cent of people live in slums of
Mumbai.
About 25.7% of the urban population live below the poverty line.
While in class I cities 12 per cent of the households are
below poverty line, in medium towns it is 23% -- even higher
than rural areas.
Urban planning has tried density control through physical
planning but failed to check in-migration or address the
issue of basic services.
Social and environmental impacts of these trends are severe as
there is also high level of inequity in the provision of basic
services in cities. Poor are pushed to periphery.
The challenge of urban governance
•
Gregarious use of energy, resource metabolism of cities and
their enormous wastes challenge urban governance.
•
This demands very strong regulatory capacity to address
these problems and to improve liveability of cities.
•
Change planning mindset. Urban planning and design should
aim for public health, low carbon and energy footprint, and
urban community wellbeing.
•
Implement integrated policies to minimise resource use, and
waste generation and improve liveability of cities.
•
Improve urban municipal governance
How are we going to manage this growth?
The issue is not about growth but about distribution, equity and urban
governance
Air pollution and mobility crisis: Cities are being built for a small group of car
owners, disregarding the mobility needs of the majority of urban population.
Pollution and congestion costs high.
Solid waste and hazardous waste: 120,000 tonnes of garbage everyday in Indian
cities. But very limited disposal, re-use and recycling capacities. Waste to energy
remains a non-starter. Colonisation of land for waste disposal is leading to
conflicts.
Water and waste water: Per capita water supply ranges from 9 lpcd to 584 lpcd
across urban India. Only 72 cities have partial sewerage facilities and 17 have
some primary treatment facilities and …..
Energy impacts: Cities are products of abundant cheap energy. Wide gap in demand
and supply, wastage. One third of India living in cities consumes 87% of nation’s
electricity. Remains energy inefficient. Both direct use of energy like fuels for
vehicles, electricity, heating, cooling, etc and also embodied energy of building
materials, and consumer items etc. are high and wasteful.
Land constraints: Urban sprawl build more inefficiencies
Maximum city
`Vision Mumbai’ (Mackinsy Plan)… Build
another Shanghai… it hits out at poor…
reduce slums… build free ways and
expressways….
What about equity? 49% of population are
in slums……..
Urban sprawl – glitzy towns in dark shadows…..
Privatised new towns……
Town of affluent but infrastructure of poor
-- 70% of water needs from ground water;
Groundwater table falling at a rate of 1 to 1.2
meters annually; dropped by 16 meters in last 20
years
-- Only 40% of the DLF area connected by sewer
line
-- Only 70-75% of solid waste transported; No
landfill site
-- Poor public transport connectivity
-- Due to acute power shortage heavy dependence
on generator-sets
-- Violation of development rules related to open
spaces and community services
If cities grow big its scale and density also
make waste treatment, recycling facilities,
and public transport more efficient.
…..But efficiency gains can be limited in
Indian cities due to poor urban
governance…..
Positioning the debate
• Air pollution, public health, energy and vehicles…..
Exploding the myth of safe air
Particulates and other air toxins like
benzene can be lethal even in small
doses
Public health policy still ignores the
link between air pollution and health
WHO mandates no safe level
WHO recommends not only eliminating
extreme cases of high pollution but
decreasing average exposure levels
among all.
Ultrafine particles 0.65 microns
Magnified 200,000 times
How far tiny particles
penetrate your lungs
Daily dose of poison and combat priority
Fine particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5): Trigger lung cancer, respiratory and heart
problems. Very high levels in cities.
Oxides of nitrogen: Forms smog and ozone. Triggers respiratory and heart problems. A
growing national problem
Carbon monoxide: Reduces oxygen carrying capacity of blood. Impairs hearth and
nervous system. High levels but on the mend.
Sulphur dioxide: Very low levels. But contribute to deadly sulphate particles. Toxic.
Benzene: Carcinogenic: Triggers blood cancer
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons: Cause cancer. Dangerous even at trace levels.
Tiny killers – particulates – most dangerous in Indian cities
More challenges…..
Newer technology solutions have further splintered the particles into an invisible size
that defies measurement.
Caught in trade offs. Technologies needed to control particulate emissions have
increased other harmful and health damaging pollutants like NOx and its attendant
problem of ozone.
India: Proliferating hotspots
Half of the cities are critically polluted due to high PM10, even NO2 is rising
in many of them – a twin trouble
100%
90%
80%
70%
Critical
High
M oderate
Low
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
PM 10
SO2
NO2
Source: Estimated based on CPCB data,
comparison with residential area standard
City based clean air action plan takes
root…
Opportunity for integrated action…..
Nearly 56 cities have city action plans. The process has accelerated in 8
cities.
City based plan identifies the combination of local, state, and central actions
and emission controls strategies for pollution control.
The city based action must be strengthened further to define
target reduction, and related control measures, with schedule for
implementation and compliance
Build strong interface between national air quality planning
process and city based action
Delhi is an important example……
2000-04: Delhi fought hard to get
breathing space
Deadly particles:
After a short respite the curve turns upward
microgram/ cubic metre
RSPM
180
2002
120
2003
2004
2005
60
2006
0
Res. Areas
Ind. Areas
Source: CPCB
NOx levels: rising steadily
NOx
NAAQS (R) 60 microgram per cubicmetre
microgram/ cubic metre
50
1998
1999
40
2000
30
2001
20
2002
2003
10
2004
0
2005
Res. Areas
2006
Ind. Areas
Source: CPCB
Deadly particles
The PM10 trend in key cities
Evidence of action in big cities. Falling PM10 levels. But still unacceptable
levels. There is still a long way to go
200
150
100
50
A
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
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Ch
en
na
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0
So
la
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microgram/cubic meter
250
Standard
Source: Estimated based on CPCB data,
comparison with residential area standard
The new threat
NO2 trend in key cities
NOx levels are rising in many cities. Kolkata is among the NOx hotspots
90
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
2002
2003
2004
2005
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ng
al
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no
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um
ba
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ne
0
So
la
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Ah
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ab
ad
Va
ra
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si
C
he
nn
ai
microgram per cubic meter
80
2006
2007
Standard
Source: Estimated based on CPCB data,
comparison with residential area standard
Energy Climate Challenge
(1) The great guzzle…..
The great guzzler: Transport sector uses up nearly 40 per cent of total
consumption of oil and oil products
Explosive vehicle numbers: Four wheelers increased five fold in two
decades. Consumption of fuels by vehicles in 2035 could be six times that of
the 2005 level. This increase to be driven by light-duty vehicles, at an annual
average growth of 10 per cent by 2030.
LCVs will burn up nearly the same amounts of total energy consumed by the
entire transport sector today. Heavy-duty vehicles will still splurge the
most. Can we afford this when nearly 85 per cent of our crude oil needs will be
imported at exorbitant rates by 2030? (WEO 2007)
Shift of freight from railways to trucks: Share of railways down to 26%.
Transport energy demand in India would grow even faster if all highways
planned are constructed. (WEO 2006)
Pressure of high commuting demand: By 2030-31 on an average Indians
will travel thrice as many kilometers as they traveled during 2000-01.
2) Great guzzle…
Strong consumer interest in fuel efficiency: Urban Indians
increasingly spending more on conveyance. Monthly expenditure data
from the CSO shows that between 1993-94 and 2004-05, the share of
expenses on transport has gone up -- from 11.3% to 17.1% and that on
food has declined.
CO2 mitigation a challenge in the transport sector: IEA’s WEO 2006
estimates transport’s share to CO2 emissions from oil is around 35% in India.
Higher fuel prices hurts. It hurts more if vehicles are fuel inefficient.
Rolling stock of inefficient vehicles will continuously lock up huge
amount of energy
Sheer numbers of cars will undercut the fuel savings possible from
public transport.
Are we losing it?
Small and medium cars will remain dominant. But……
Shift towards heavier and powerful cars expected at a faster rate.
This will negate efficiency gains..
The subtle link….
• Local pollution can enhance the warming effects….
•
•
•
HC + NOx lead to regional ozone but also to background hemispheric ozone
CO becomes CO2 but consumes OH radicals along the way increasing CH4
Diesel PM increases PM10 & PM2.5 & ultrafine PM but also black carbon
• Now the emerging science says that warming gases
can enhance local public health impacts as
well…e.g., each increase of 1 degree Celsius caused by carbon
dioxide, can enhance PM and ozone build up. The resulting air pollution
can lead thousands of additional deaths and many more cases of
respiratory illness and asthma etc. (Mark Jacobson 2008)
Fight for efficiency…..
• Pressure building up for fuel economy standards. Industry resistant
• Auto fuel policy asked for mandatory voluntary declaration of fuel
economy levels of car models This has not been enforced.
• Integrated Energy Policy 2006…….
– The Integrated Energy Policy 2006 proposes improvement in
vehicle fuel economy by 50 per cent by 2030. Oil requirement
can go down by nearly 86 million tonnes by 2031-32.This
means a saving of US$ 36 billion at the rate of nearly US$ 57
per barrel of crude oil
• This amounts to 65 per cent of total current consumption and in
terms of carbon dioxide
• emissions reduction it is equal to removing 7 million of today’s four
wheeled vehicles.
Regulatory challenges
Challenge of air quality governance
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
A spate of laws in India..
December 1984: Bhopal Gas Disaster
India learns the pain of industrial growth.
1986: The Environment Protection Act is passed.
Environmental Impact Assessment mandated.
Environmental audits introduced.
But by the mid-1990s things were out of hand.
Pollution in cities, ….toxic contamination growing.
Air quality planning:
Challenge of governance
•
•
•
•
The paradox: Trend toward
strong environmental laws.
But governments do not
act.
Role of civil society and
Judiciary becomes
important
Public interest litigation (PIL)
provides opportunity to the
civil society to drive policies
Judiciary intervenes as the executive
fails.
Fractured governance
Total air quality management approach missing
Multiple agencies contribute either directly or indirectly to the norm
setting process related to emissions and fuel quality for vehicles,
transportation measures and setting of overall policies for ambient air
quality.
The Planning Commissions in one of its report has stated that the
SPCBs have been reduced to “only Industrial Pollution Control Boards”.
Implementation of the regulations related to the vehicular pollution, for
instance, does not fall within the jurisdiction of the CPCB and SPCBs.
Role of civil society and Judiciary becomes important.
Public interest litigation (PIL) provides opportunity to the civil society to
drive policies
Judiciary intervenes as the executive fails.
Air quality standards to be more stringent
140
120
Existing annual
average standard
microgram per cubic metre
120
Proposed annual
average standard
100
RSPM
80
80
SO2
80
60
60
60
60
NO2
60
50
50
40
40
15
20
15
0
Industrial Areas
Residential, Rural &
other Areas
Existing Annual Standards
Sensitive Areas*
General Areas
Proposed Standards
Clean air targets still elusive
India has adopted national ambient air quality standards
Time bound air quality targets are not set to meet standards
No punitive action on state governments for not meeting the
ambient air quality norms.
Abatement plans are not designed to meet local air quality
demands
Weak air quality surveillance impedes informed decision
making
Ensure enforcement of air quality standards, accountability
and compliance.
Trend towards auto dependent cities………
Toxic diesel…..
Diesel cars more fuel efficient.
But carbon content of diesel higher.
So CO2 emissions increase if more
fuel is burnt. PM and NOx emissions
are several times higher. Diesel soot is
also a warming agent.
140000
120000
Numbers
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
Agency
Red alert on diesel
exhaust
US EPA (2002)
Likely human carcinogen
CARB (1998)
Toxic air contaminant
HEI (1995)
Potential to cause cancer
NIOSH (1988)
Potential occupational
carcinogen
IARC (1989)
Probable human
carcinogen
WHO IPCS
(1996)
Probable human
carcinogen
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Diesel car
Diesel Jeep
Diesel Van
1998: Diesel cars only 2% of the new car
sales in Delhi.
2007: Diesel cars nearly 30% of new car
sales
2010: Projected to be 50% of the sales
Technology lag…..
•Between 1996 and 2005 the amount of fuel used for
each 100 km driven by new cars in the UK decreased by
6% as a result of improvements in efficiency.
•Emissions of CO2 from private cars rose by 4% in the
same period, mainly because of increasing distances
travelled by car, which rose by 10%.
•PM10 emissions declined by 29% between 1996 and
2000 but subsequently decreased by only a further 3%
… the improvements offset by an increase in the use of,
and emissions from, diesel cars.
“New diesel cars in India are clean” - A Myth?
Post 2005 diesel car model: High levels of PM, NOx and air toxics; Overwhelms the
CO2 advantage: A crippling trade-off
NOx
0.02
0.3
PM (gm/km)
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
PM
0.015
0.01
0.005
0.05
0
0
Petrol cars (> 1400cc)
Diesel cars (< 1600cc)
Petrol cars (> 1400cc)
CO2
0.45
0.4
0.35
0.3
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
CO2 (gm/km)
Toxics (gm/km)
Total air toxics
Petrol cars (>1400cc)
Diesel cars (< 1600cc)
Diesel cars (<1600cc)
175
170
165
160
155
150
145
140
135
Petrol cars (> 1400cc)
Diesel cars (< 1600cc)
Solution exist to make diesel vehicles clean.
But we do not have policies to enable them….
Source:
ICCT
Reinvent the idea of mobility
Explosive numbers: A special challenge
Vehicle registration in India: India’s urban
45.6
27.5
1956,
1961,
1966,
1971,
1976,
1981,
1986,
11.3
9.4
6.3
2.6
1951,
4.2
3.8
1.6
10.0
This decade just in four years (2001 to
2004) we have added 16 million
1.8
0.9
20.0
Another 10 years (1991-2001) – jumped
by 28 million
1.3
0.6
30.0
Then in 10 years (1981-91) increased by
14 million
0.7
0.4
40.0
Another 20 years to add two more
million
0.4
0.3
It took 30 years to reach the first million
mark for personal vehicles in 1971.
0.2
0.2
50.0
Other vehicles
17.2
Two wheelers, car, jeeps and taxis
0.2
0.1
in millions
60.0
61.4
population has grown 4.6 times, vehicle
numbers have increased 158 times
8.0
70.0
0.0
Source: Computed on the basis of MOSRTH motor vehicle registration data
1991,
1996,
2001,
2004,
Where is the space for more cars?
Between 1996 and 2006 total road length in Delhi has increased by about 20 per
cent. But cars increased by 132 per cent
Delhi has 21 per cent of its area under roads; only quarter of its population own
cars; cars and two-wheelers together drive less than 20 per cent of its people -- and
yet roads are choked
Availability of Road Length in Delhi
9
2150
8.45
8
7.88
7.9
2070
2103
2103
2087
7.44
7
2100
6.98
6.46
2050
2000
5
4
1922
1950
1922
3
1900
2
1850
1
0
1800
2000-01
2001-02
2002-03
Average length of road per 100 square kilometers
2003-04
2004 - 2005
2005 - 2006
Road length per thousand vehicles ( in kilometers)
in kilometers
in kilometers
6
Peak volume traffic has increased
phenomenally
Nearly 123 per cent growth on many roads (in PCU/hour)
1990
2004
2000
4000
AIIMS to Dhola Kuan
B.S.Gurudwara to AIIMS
I.S.B.T. to B.S.Gurudwara
Azadpur to I.S.B.T.
Raja Garden to Azadpur
Dhola Kuan to Raja Garden
0
6000
8000
10000 12000 14000 16000
PCU per hour
Source: Based on City Development Plan of Delhi, 2006, Eco Smart
Speed Plummets
Cars encourage urban sprawl
The “Gurgaon” cataclysm
Development and density controls also encourage move
towards suburbs; e.g. Satellite towns around Delhi, Mumbai
suburbs etc.
Uncontrolled suburbanisation: Gurgaon, 32 kilometer from
Delhi: 1961: 37868 population. 2001: 1.66 million. Car
dependent city -- unfettered growth despite severe water
constraints. 70% of water demand met from ground water.
Alarming drop in ground water level. No land for solid waste
disposal.
Satellite townships have created 3.42 million daily trips -- of
these 37 per cent of the trips are made from Delhi to NCR, 42
per cent from NCR to Delhi and the rest of the trips occur in
NCR but outside Delhi – add to pollution and congestion.
Result congestion….
Peak hour traffic speed plummets…It can be as low as
10 hours per hour in Delhi, or 7 km per hour in Kolkata…
Congestion costs can be as high as Rs 3000 to 4000
crore per year.
ASSOCHAM study: the commuting population could be
losing Rs 420 million human hours in congestion. Each
day 2.5 hours are lost in commuting to destinations.
Strike at the very root….
Restrain personal vehicle usage.
Build public transport
International Energy Agency estimates 100 per cent
difference in oil use in a future scenario dominated by high
quality bus system as opposed to that dominated by
personal vehicles in Delhi
ADB study projects that in Bangalore an increase in public
transport share from 62 per cent to 80 per cent can save 21
per cent of fuel consumption.
Public transport is our strength. But wrong
policies discourage them
-- Buses still meet more than 60 per cent of our travel requirements. Build on
this strength.
-- Without intervention increase in mobility will change the modal split in favour
of personal vehicles. -- Share of public transport may drop from 75.7% in
2001-02 to 44.7 % in 2030-31. On a per passenger basis a car uses six times
more energy than a bus. (IIT Kanpur)
Wrong policies discourage buses
Total tax burden per vehicle
kilometer is 2.6 times higher
for buses than cars in India,
says the World Bank.
Tax correction can encourage buses.
In Delhi if lifetime tax is amortised for the life of
the vehicles then the owner pays roughly Rs
300 as taxes per year. But buses pay for more
for carrying passengers. They pay about Rs
13000 per year – 43 times more than cars. .
Urban form and sustainability
Dense growth helps………
Who walks in our cities
High Risk Groups
Cars lead to most iniquitous use of urban land
Cities are being built for urban minority
•
Parking is one of the most wasteful uses of cars: Out of 8760
hours in a year the total steering time of an average car is 400
hours. For about 90 to 95 per cent of the time a car is parked.
•
Insatiable demand for land: If demand for land for an average
car is computed on the basis of the average size of the car and
one parking space per car -- the total cars already uses up 3% of
the city’s urbanised area; or 10.8% extra land available for
urbanisation. The forest cover in Delhi is 11.5 %.
•
Iniquitous use of land: A car is allotted 23 sq m for parking.
Under low cost housing scheme. The car owning minority using
up more and more road space and urban space.
Land is limited. Where will cities find more land to park cars?
Parking: Hidden subsidy!
FOR CARS
Rs 20 for 2 hrs,
Rs 40 : 2-4 hrs
Rs 60 : 4-6
Rs 100 : 6-10 hrs
Rs 250 : 24 hrs
EROS
PETROL PUMP
SCOOTER PARKING
ANSAL
OVERHEAD WATER TANK
24.00
6.00
PAHARPUR BUSINESS CENTRE
6.00
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Car: Rs 10 for 12 hrs
2Ws: Rs 5 for 12 hrs
Commercial/Semi Commercial Area
Public Utility
Existing Multilevel Parking
Green Area
On-Street Parking
No On-Street Parking
No
Proposed Multilevel Parking Site
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“on-street” parking
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proposed but not
implemented
Poor mobility management
By 2021 there will be a shortfall of nine million trips
per day
Solution: Public transport
But progress very slow
Public transport projects to engineer change
High capacity bus system – 100km; Metro plan -- 245 km planned
If implemented on time and on an extensive scale, can make significant impact on car
numbers, congestion and air quality. But these have longer time schedule.
Need effective action in the short run as well. Augment the available public transport.
Supreme court directive to increase the bus fleet to 10,000. City fails to meet the
target
The Way Ahead
Maximise public health, energy and climate benefits
Need good urban governance
Technology roadmap
Review auto fuel policy roadmap to leapfrog emissions
and fuel standards. Avoid trade offs between pollution and
efficiency
Reinvent Mobility
Build public transport to leverage change
Enforce car restraint measures
Improve fuel efficiency with mandatory fuel economy
standards
Cross cutting measures: Use fiscal policies to speed up
change. Improve air and health surveillance
Deepen, reform and strengthen the environment
regulatory institutions
Thank You