Transcript Jeffery Presentation Slides - Australian

Assessing INDCs and their implications:
Resources, tools, and analysis
Louise Jeffery, on behalf of the PRIMAP team:
Johannes Gütschow, Ryan Alexander, Robert Gieseke,
Claire Fyson, Yann Robiou du Pont, David Stevens, and Ronja Gebel
1 December 2015
INDCs - State of Play
156 INDCs submitted to the UNFCCC by 1 Dec
95% global emissions in 2010
(excl. LULUCF; 2% other countries, 3% bunkers)
97% global population
Of these INDCs:
• 28 absolute reductions relative to a reference year
• 81 reduction below a BAU (63 provide a BAU in the INDC)
• 21 Intensity targets
• 34 measures and policies based
Extensive coverage, but is the ambition sufficient?
2
INDC resources and tools
1) Climate Action Tracker
2) PRIMAP-live Scenario Explorer
3) INDC Factsheets
3
Climate Action Tracker
• 33 countries individually assessed, covering 80% of global
emissions in 2010
• Assessments include a quantification and rating of INDC
targets as compared with a range of effort-sharing schemes
• CAT also assesses the sufficiency of current policies in
meeting pledges and INDC targets
• Estimate the warming in 2100 consistent with current
pledges, INDCs, and policies
climateactiontracker.org
4
CAT - Individual country ratings
Bhutan
not likely below 2°C
CAT – aggregate INDC analysis
• As of 1 October, CAT estimated that total emissions in 2030 would
be 53-55 GtCO2e
• The gap between INDC levels and 1.5°C or 2°C consistent
pathways increases between 2025 and 2030
• Aggregate emissions in 2030 fall short of what is needed to be on
a robust track to 1.5 or 2°C in 2030.
• Current policies are not yet sufficient to meet the INDC emissions
at the global level
6
CAT - global temperature analysis
Median warming estimate for unconditional INDCs is 2.7°C
Likely (>66%) below 3°C and 90% probability of exceeding
2°C
Exploring IAM Scenarios with PRIMAP-live
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Exploring IAM Scenarios with PRIMAP-live
Provides an accessible interface to scenarios from integrated
assessment models
The user can explore for themselves questions such as:
1) What are the emissions pathways consistent with limiting
warming to below 2°C, or returning to 1.5°C by the end of the
century?
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/primap-live/
9
What are the characteristics of emissions
pathways with <2°C warming?
10
Exploring IAM Scenarios with PRIMAP-live
Provides and accessible interface to scenarios from integrated
assessment modeling scenarios
The user can explore for themselves questions such as:
1) What are the emissions pathways consistent with limiting
warming to below 2°C, or returning to 1.5°C by the end of the
century?
2) What are the key features of these scenarios in terms of:
-
Timing of emissions peaks and full decarbonisation
Technologies available
Land-use emissions and sinks
……
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/primap-live/
11
For a given model, what are the net land-use
emissions?
(MESSAGE scenarios only shown here)
12
INDC Factsheets
Quantification of all INDCs submitted so far
Information about:
- What is the INDC?
- What are projected emissions levels
under the INDCs?
- What are the implications for
emissions per capita or emissions per
GDP?
- What is the current emissions profile
in terms of gases and sectors?
Accessible at:
www.climate-energy-college.net/indc-factsheets
13
Numbers preliminary
INDC FactSheet
Version: 26 Nov. 2015
Shown are averages for low and high or conditional and unconditional INDCs and their inter-/extrapolations
Viet Nam
Cancun 2020
INDC 2025
INDC 2030
2010
0% rel. BAU of 474.1
-8% rel. BAU of 787 Mt
0% rel. BAU of 474.1
-25% rel. BAU of 787
Mt(cond.)
Share of World Emissions excl. LULUCF
(Rank):
Per-Capita Emissions (tCO2eq/cap)
2025
2030
World Rank
0.6%
#32
1.0%
#19
3.1t
#122
5.2t
#89
1.2%
6t
World Rank
#15
#78
8.0
800.0
700.0
600.0
500.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
400.0
0.0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
300.0
GHG Emissions per GDP
1,200
200.0
Emissions per GDP (tCO2eq/Mio$)
GHG Emissions (MtCO2eq/yr)
World Rank
Per-Capita Emissions
GHG Emissions
Per-Capita GHG Emissions (tCO2eq/cap)
900.0
+92%
Per-Capita Emissions in
2030 rel. 2010 (excl.
LULUCF):
100.0
0.0
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2035
Reference Total GHG excl. LULUCF
Reference LULUCF Emissions
Historical Covered Emissions, incl. LULUCF, if covered.
LOW INDC Levels
LOW INDC Covered Emissions, incl. LULUCF if covered
LOW INDC Covered Emissions, excl. LULUCF
LOW INDC Covered + Non-Covered Emissions, excl. LULUCF
HIGH INDC Levels
HIGH INDC Covered Emissions, incl. LULUCF
HIGH INDC Covered Emissions, excl. LULUCF
HIGH INDC Covered + Non-Covered Emissions, excl. LULUCF
LOW Cancun Pledges
2040
2045
2050
1,000
800
600
400
200
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
HIGH Cancun Pledges
2010 Total GHG Emissions excl. LULUCF
By Gas:
Vietnam INDC BAU GWP AR4
By Sector:
CO2
57.1%
CH4
N2O
Regional/Gas-specific BAU
F-gases
Not-covered GHG excl. LULUCF (Region Projection)
GHG Emissions
1990
2000
2005
2010
34.4%
2020
2025
8.5%
Data Sources:
61.2%
Cat. 2, 3, 6 & 7
15.6%
Cat 4. Agriculture
F-gases
0.0%
2030
Cat. 1 Energy
23.2%
0.0%
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Per-Capita G
1.0
0.0
No reference or projection provided
GHG Emissions per GDP
Data uncertainty
- Data in INDCs may conflict with data reported elsewhere
- Particularly high uncertainties from agriculture and land–use
sectors
2030
2035
2040
2045
2050
Incomplete coverage of sectors
Accounting and coverage of land-use activities
Intensity targets rely on GDP and / or population projections
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
1,200
UCF Emissions
ls
ered Emissions, excl. LULUCF
els
2.0
INDC – Quantification challenges
Emissions per GDP (tCO2eq/Mio$)
2025
3.0
1,000
800
600
400
200
ered Emissions, excl. LULUCF
edges
BAU GWP AR4
pecific BAU
-
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
2010 Total GHG Emissions excl. LULUCF
By Gas:
By Sector:
CO2
57.1%
CH4
N2O
F-gases
34.4%
8.5%
0.0%
Cat. 1 Energy
61.2%
Cat. 2, 3, 6 & 7
15.6%
Cat 4. Agriculture
F-gases
23.2%
0.0%
15
climateactiontracker.org
climate-energy-college.net/indc-factsheets/
pik-potsdam.de/primap-live/
16
17
CAT – calculating the temperature
1) Extending global emissions pathways to 2100
• Aggregate national emissions to the level of the five AR5 regions
• Assume that 2020-2030 mitigation effort will continue throughout 21st
century
• Construct long-term scenarios from the AR5 scenario database by
keeping the quantile of the scenario within the distribution of AR5
pathways constant.
• Generate global emissions pathways by combining regional pathways and
additionally including emissions from:
• International aviation and marine bunkers
• Deforestation
2) Use probabilistic MAGICC model (v6) to calculate warming from emissions
pathways and associated climate and carbon-cycle uncertainties.
CAT – calculating the temperature
50
GtCO2e/yr
40
30
Pledges / INDCs,
until 2030 only
20
10
0
-10
Pledges, including
2050 targets
Current Policies