Transcript Latin America: Golden or Leaden Casket? - Inter

Inter American Development Bank
Washington D.C.
May 9, 2008
Latin America: Golden or Leaden Casket ?
John Chambers, CFA
Managing Director
Chairman, Sovereign Ratings Committee
Standard & Poor’s
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Copyright (c) 2006 Standard & Poor’s, a division of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
Sovereign Ratings
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2.
Sovereign Ratings
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3.
Sovereign Ratings
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4.
Quotation
Merchant of Venice
William Shakespeare
Act II, Scene VII
MOROCCO
O hell! what have we here?
A carrion Death, within whose empty eye
There is a written scroll! I'll read the writing.
Reads
All that glisters is not gold
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5.
Ratings Latin America
1998*
lowest
1998-2008
2008**
Argentina
BB
SD (2001-2004)
B+
Bahamas
A- (2003)
A- (2003-08)
A-
Barbados
A- (1999)
BBB+ (2004-08)
BBB+
Belize
BB (2000)
SD 2006
B
Bolivia
BB-
B- ( 2003-08)
B-
Brazil
BB-
B+ (1999-00,2002-03)
BBB-
Chile
A-
A- (1998-2002)
A+
BBB-
BB (2000-06)
BB+
BB
BB(1998-2008)
BB
B+***
SD (2005)
B+***
B- (2000)
CCC (2007)
B-
Colombia
Costa Rica
Dominican Rep.
Ecuador
Long-term foreign currency sovereign ratings
* Jan 1 unless otherwise noted
** May 8, 2008
*** Credit Watch Negative
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6.
Ratings Latin America
1998*
lowest
1998-2008
2008**
El Salvador
BB
BB (1998-99)
BB+
Guatemala
BB (2001)
BB-(2003-2005)
BB
Jamaica
B (1999)
B(1999-00,2003-08)
B
Mexico
BB
BB (1998-99)
BBB+
Panama
BB+
BB(2001-07)
BB+
Paraguay
BB-
SD (2003-04)
B
Peru
BB
BB-(2000-03)
BB+
B- (1999)
B-(1999-2006)
B+
Trinidad &Tobago
BB+
BB+ (1998)
A-
Uruguay
BBB-
SD (2003)
B+
B+
SD (2005)
BB-
Suriname
Venezuela
Long-term foreign currency sovereign ratings
* Jan 1 unless otherwise noted
** May 8, 2008
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7.
GDP per capita annual growth
Real GDP per capita growth
Colombia
Peru
Asian regional average growth*
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
-2%
-4%
-6%
* Simple average of per capita growth of China, Indonesia, India, Philippines and Thailand
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8.
General Government balance / GDP
General Government balance / GDP
Uruguay
Suriname
Brazil
Peru
Panama
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
-8.0%
-10.0%
-12.0%
-14.0%
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9.
2006
2007
2008
External financial sector debt / CAR
Net external financial sector debt/ Current Account Receipts
Brazil
Bahamas
Panama
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
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10.
2006
2007
2008
Inflation
CPI growth
Bolivia
Costa Rica
Dominican Republic
27%
25.0%
Trinidad and Tobago
Paraguay
Jamaica
51%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
5.0%
0.0%
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
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11.
2006
2007
2008