Transcript ECE-EN - United Nations Statistics Division

United Nations Economic Commission for Europe
Statistical Division
UNECE recommendations for the implementation of
the 2008 System of National Accounts in the countries
of Eastern Europe, Caucasus and Central Asia and
South East Europe
Presentation by UNECE
Overview of presentation
1.
Background
2.
Recommendations
3.
UNECE activities in supporting the regional
recommendations
4.
Conclusions
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 2
Background
• UNSC (40th session) adopted the 2008 SNA and supported the
implementation strategy proposed by the ISWGNA
• UNSC requested that particular circumstances of countries be
recognized and emphasized the role of the UN Regional
Commissions to facilitate implementation of 2008 SNA
• ISWGNA developed global implementation guidelines which
have to be adapted to the needs of each region
• UNECE recommendations for EECCA and SEE countries
• In line with global guidelines
• Aim to help countries build their implementation plans in a
coherent way
• Aim to foster quality and international comparability of NA data
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 3
Background
• The UNECE recommendations are based on variety of source
information collected from countries and broad consultation with
country experts and partner organizations (CIS-STAT, EFTA,
Eurostat, IMF, OECD, UNSD):
•
Two surveys on the current status and main challenges with the 1993 SNA
(2010) and implementation plans for the 2008 SNA (2012)
•
Results of global assessments
•
Discussions at the Special Sessions of the Group of Experts on National
Accounts: April 2010 and May 2012
•
The Workshop “Implementation plans for the 2008 SNA in the EECCA and
SEE countries” (Kiev, 29 November – 2 December 2011)
• The recommendations were finalized in consultation with the CES
Steering Group on National Accounts
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 4
Recommendations
• The ISWGNA guidelines recommend three stages of
implementation
• The regional recommendations suggest a number of activities
and a timeframe for each stage, which take into account the
statistical and institutional capacity of statistical systems of
UNECE countries, the needs of the main users and the required
resources
• The recommendations are available in English and Russian on
the dedicated website:
http://www.unece.org/stats/2008sna.html
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 5
Recommendations
• Implementation of the 2008 SNA should not be left as sole undertaking
of the NA Departments. It should be a strategic choice of the national
statistical system of the country.
• National Accounts are needed by:
- Policy makers and government officials in order to base their economic
policies
- International organizations, donors, investors to define economic
development and investment policies
- Society to take economic and social decisions
• The production (and revision) of national accounts is a resource
intensive exercise and will require support from policy makers,
government institutions, academia, businesses, in the form of
resources, access to data sources, expertize.
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 6
Communication & Dissemination Strategy
2008 SNA implementation coordinated by the NSO
STAGE 1 –
Developing of
Prioritization of the main outstanding issues: 1993 and 2008 SNA
national
Inclusion of the 2008 SNA implementation in the strategic
implementation
plans for the development of national statistical systems
strategies and
detailed programmes
Adoption of a detailed action plan for the 2008 SNA
for the 2008 SNA
Involvement
of
stakeholders
STAGE 2 - Adaptation
of classification
frameworks, business
registers and frames,
surveys, administrative
data sources and
information technology
infrastructure
STAGE 3 Development of
national accounts in
accordance with the
2008 SNA
Ongoing consultation with the main stakeholders
for the 2008 SNA implementation (Central Bank,
Ministry of Finance, government, public,
international organizations, other data users and
concerned NSO departments)
Classification frameworks,
business registers and frames,
surveys, administrative data
IT and staff resources
• Adequate IT infrastructure and
support
• Recruitment and training policy
• IOs role in staff training
• Continuous review throughout the
SNA implementation
1
Basic
indicators of
GDP
UNECE Statistical Division
• Adoption of new relevant classifications and
improvements in business registers
• Review of related source statistics compiled
by the statistical office
• Review of related macroeconomic data sets
compiled outside the statistical office
• Use of administrative data sources
2
GNI and other
primary
indicators
3-6
Institutional
sector
accounts
Slide 7
Recommendations
• STAGE 1 – Developing of national implementation strategies and
detailed programmes for the 2008 SNA:
• Prioritization of the main issues: analysis of the most needed
national accounts series and identification of the issues which are
likely to have a greatest impact on these series
– GDP and its main components
– Integrated set of accounts and major indicators (GNI and Gross Saving)
– Improvement of institutional sector accounts
• Consultation with the main stakeholders for the 2008 SNA
implementation:
– Users: policy makers, government officials, forecasting agencies, central
banks, international organizations, investors, donors, media
– Data (resource) providers: Central Banks, Ministries of Finance, Tax
Authorities, Social Security Institutions, supervisory institutions
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 8
Recommendations
• STAGE 1 – Developing of national implementation strategies and
detailed programmes for the 2008 SNA:
• Inclusion of the 2008 SNA implementation in the strategic plans for
the development of national statistical systems
• or annexes to existing long-term (5-year) strategic documents
• Adoption of a detailed action plan for the 2008 SNA
• the overall strategy → short and medium term action plans
• Assessing the availability of data and new data needs
• Matching required outputs with resources: available data, timing, human, funding,
IT
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 9
Recommendations
• STAGE 2 - Adaptation of classification frameworks, business registers
and frames, surveys, administrative data sources and information
technology infrastructure:
• Adoption of new relevant classifications and improvements in
business registers (coverage of private and small businesses)
• Review of related source statistics compiled by the statistical
office. Main concerns:
•
Development of sampling techniques and proper coverage of private
businesses, particularly in short-term business surveys
•
Coverage of services in SBS: methodology and data sources
•
Development of new short-term indicators for services
•
Development of price indices for double deflation method: particularly PPIs for
industry and services branches (including industrial services), exports and
imports price indices.
•
Coherence of bookkeeping standards with international guidelines
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 10
Recommendations
• STAGE 2 - Adaptation of classification frameworks, business
registers and frames, surveys, administrative data sources and
information technology infrastructure:
• Review of related macroeconomic data sets compiled outside
the statistical office
• Central Banks: financial and monetary statistics, coordinated
implementation of BPM6 with 2008 SNA
• Ministries of finance: the new GFSM 2012 is in line with 2008 SNA
• Use of administrative data sources
• Important to avoid increase in response burden
• Inventory of available administrative data sources
• The NSO requires the power to negotiate and secure information from
government organizations and non-government organizations
• IT and staff resources
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 11
Recommendations
• STAGE 3 - Development of national accounts in accordance with
the 2008 SNA: priorities set up by countries in their implementation
programmes
• Basic indicators of GDP - Milestone 1
• GNI and other primary indicators - Milestone 2
• Institutional sector accounts: Milestones 3 to 6
• In line with the six milestones developed by the ISWGNA
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 12
Recommendations
Basic indicators of GDP - Milestone 1
General issues:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Measurement of services, including financial services:
Constant prices: output deflators, double deflation, chain
linking
Exhaustiveness of GDP
Measurement of the government sector: accruals, coverage
Balancing in a supply and use framework
Improved measures of GFCF and consumption of fixed
capital
Seasonal adjustments methods for quarterly national
accounts
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 13
Recommendations
Basic indicators of GDP - Milestone 1(cont)
and specific 2008 SNA issues:
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
linked to financial services: FISIM, Output of the Central
Bank, insurance services,
linked to fixed assets: expenditure on R&D, military
expenditure, mineral exploration, databases and software
linked to informal and illegal activities,
new classifications ISIC Rev4/NACE Rev.2
goods for processing, merchanting
Breaks in the series; backcasting
Communicating the changes to users (overcome the
perception of error)
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 14
UNECE Activities
• The UNECE work with the EECCA and SEE countries involves
the following groups of activities:
• Surveys of national practices and implementation plans
• Workshops and special sessions
• Recommendations and other guidance on the implementation of the
2008 SNA
• Promoting the implementation of internationally agreed standards
and good practices also in other areas of economic statistics
• A designated website with relevant documentation and training
material for 2008 SNA Implementation
http://www.unece.org/stats/2008sna.html
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 15
UNECE activities in supporting the regional
recommendations
Date and venue
February 2010
Activity
UNECE survey on status and main challenges with the implementation of the 2008 SNA
in EECCA and SEE countries
26 April 2010
Special session for transition economies back-to-back with the meeting of the Group of
Experts on National Accounts discussed the progress and main challenges for the
implementation of SNA in the region
Geneva
2-6 May 2011
Vienna
Joint IMF/EFTA/UNECE Workshop on Links between Government Finance and National
Accounts Statistics for EECCA and SEE countries
June - September 2011
Country consultation to update of the 2010 Survey and produce country profiles which
present structured information for each country in the region
Autumn 2011
Development of template for implementation plans based on the stages and milestones
recommended in Global Implementation Strategy
29 Nov - 2 Dec 2011
Joint UNECE/UNSD/EFTA workshop on the implementation of the 2008 SNA in EECCA
and SEE countries
Kiev
March 2012
April 2012
1 May 2012
Geneva
UNECE survey on national implementation plans for the 2008 SNA
Launch of a UNECE website on implementation of the 2008 SNA, including information
on meetings, survey results, detailed country information and links to training materials
and similar websites of other organizations
Special session for transition economies back-to-back with the meeting of the Group of
Expert on National Accounts
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 16
UNECE activities in supporting the regional
recommendations
Date and venue
Activity
January 2013
Regional recommendations for the 2008 SNA implementation in the UNECE region
19-21 March 2013
Joint UNSD/Eurostat/UNECE Workshop on International Economic Classification to
discuss implementation aspects in the statistical offices of EECCA and SEE countries
Kishinev
20 – 22 November
Istanbul
6-9 May 2014
Joint IMF/EFTA/Eurostat/UNECE Workshop on Implementation of the 2008 SNA and
Linkages to Government Finance Statistics for EECCA and SEE countries (including both
NSOs and Ministries of Finance)
Geneva
Special session for transition economies back-to-back to the meeting of the Group of
Experts on National Accounts, to take stock and plan for the following two-year period
2014 - tbc
Regional workshop on the implementation of the 2008 SNA in EECCA and SEE countries
Mid-2016
Special session for transition economies back-to-back to the meeting of the Group of
Experts on National Accounts, to take stock and plan for the following two-year period
Geneva
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 17
Conclusions and future work
• UNECE will follow up and assist the countries on the
progress with the issues identified as main priority for
Milestone 1
• In 2014 the recommendations will be reviewed taking
into account emerging data needs and the experience
gained during the first stage of implementation of the
2008 SNA
• The recommendations would be extended to gradually
cover concrete issues related to milestones 2 - 6
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 18
Comments and suggestion can be send to
[email protected]
Thanks!
UNECE Statistical Division
Slide 19