Transcript Global Challenges Delphi

The 2003/04 Delphi
The Millennium Project
July 31, 2004
Three Objectives
•
Updating the 15 challenges and listing
measures of accomplishment.
•
Projecting the best and worst plausible
future values for the SOFI variables
•
Identifying and evaluating future
developments that could influence the
course of the SOFI variables.
Categories of Accomplishment
Measures
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Health Care
Education
Economics
Environment
Social
Political
S&T
Illustration of Policy Use of
Measures: Sustainability
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Atmospheric carbon dioxide drops for at least five years in a row.
Average calories per capita exceeds 2000 and numbers of hungry
people diminishes by half.
Decrease in total non-renewable energy consumption while the
GDP increases for five consecutive years.
Adopting measures of national productivity that include all the
costs and benefits of production, replacing GNP/GDP.
Decrease or stabilization in the consumption of natural resources
per capita
Increase in worldwide per capita income for more than 20 years
Stability in the amount of biodiversity in the 20 most relevant
natural sites (rainforests, coral reefs etc.) for at least ten years.
All developed countries accept the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
Stabilization in population growth in developing regions.
Innovative technologies providing substitution for 20% of natural
resources.
Importance of the Measures
The scale used was:
• 5= The indicator is an excellent measure of
accomplishment
• 4= The indicator is a good and trustworthy
measure
• 3= The indicator is likely to show
accomplishment
• 2= The indicator is of questionable value
• 1= The indicator is essentially of no value
Top Rated Measures of
Accomplishment
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
The number of people without clean water diminishes by half. (2, water)
Gender parity in school enrollment, literacy, and access to capital. (11, status of
women)
Elimination of laws that discriminate against women. (11, status of women)
Total energy production from environmentally benign processes passed other sources
for five sequential years. (13, energy)
International drug smuggling, trafficking of humans, and other income sources for
transnational organized crime drops by 75%. (12, organized crime)
Corruption decreases by 50% (15, ethics)
Ethical business standards internationally recognized and regularly audited. (15,
ethics)
Market economy abuses and corruption by companies are intensively prosecuted. (7,
rich-poor gap)
Number of people living on less than $2 per day drops by 75%. (7, rich-poor gap)
The number of people suffering from water-borne diseases drops by half. (2, water)
International money laundering drops by 75%. (12, organized crime)
“How would we know when sustainable
development for all (Challenge 1) has been
substantially achieved?”
• Atmospheric carbon dioxide drops for at least five years in a row.
• GDP increases while greenhouse gas emissions decreases for five
years in a row.
• The global acreage in forests increases for five years.
• Average calories per capita per day exceed 2000 and the number of
hungry people diminishes by half.
• Proven natural resources increase by 30%.
• Atmospheric carbon dioxide drops for at least five years in a row.
• Average calories per capita per day exceeds 2000
• The number of hungry people diminishes by half.
• Total non-renewable energy consumption diminishes while the GDP
increases for five consecutive years.
• Many nation states adopt a measure of national productivity that is
inclusive of all the costs and benefits of production, replacing
GNP/GDP.