Transcript Convention on Long-range Trans-boundary Air Pollution

Convention on Long-range Transboundary
Air Pollution
Task Force on Integrated Assessment Modelling
Review of the Gothenburg Protocol
UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE
What has changed?








New Eulerian dispersion model
Ecosystem dependent deposition rates
Sensitivity of ecosystems, ozone flux approach
Health effects of particles and ozone
Emission estimates
New (national) projections, time horizon 2020
Effects of existing control options (cycle bypassing)
Increased potential of cost-effective measures due
to linkages with climate policy, non-technical local
measures and measures for ships
Preliminary conclusion TFIAM32
• Emissions of SO2, NOx, NH3 and VOC declined
• Current policy efforts are no-regret, but…
• The Gothenburg Protocol is not sufficient to meet
the original ambitions regarding the long term
protection of ecosystems and health
Unprotected Ecosystem-area (nitrogen) - %
2000
Europe EU25
Lagrangian Model
1998 critical loads
26
2004 critical loads
25
Unified Model & 2004 CLs
grid average deposition 29
ecosystem specific dep. 35
Updated emissions &
meteo variability
50
2010 GP
Europe EU25
61
56
25
23
54
49
65
78
29
35
59
73
75
48
65 %
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
Factors changing ecosystem risk estimates
Goth Protocol
Updated CL
50 * 50 km
Exceedance
of CLnut
in 2010
Eulerian model
Ecosyst. spec. dep.
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
Trends in unprotected ecosystem area (%)
%
1990 1995 2000 2004 2010GP
Acidification
EU25
39
27
23
15
16
EMEP
41
19
15
10
11
Eutrophication
EU25
81
74
75
66
64
EMEP
66
54
50
47
48
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
GP knowledge:
days with ozone above 60 ppb  Problem for
Northwestern & central Europe
36
34
32
30
28
26
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
10
Unit:
8
6
4
2
10
12
14
16
18
20
19901990
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
%
0.0
0.0
1.0
5.0
10.0
25.0
50.0
100.0
36
38
2010
Current knowledge: SOMO35 [ppb.days] 
problem in Southern Europe
2000
2010
2020
Sum Of Mean Ozone values over 35 ppb in rural areas
Effect of hemispheric ozone increases the challenge
No increase
Expected increase
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
Increasing importance of ship emissions
SO2
45
40
35
30
25
IIA
SA
20
20
20
10
IIA
SA
20
15
10
5
0
19
50
19
55
19
60
19
65
19
70
19
75
19
80
19
85
19
90
19
95
20
00
% ships emissions to land
based emissions
NO2
Contribution of SOx from
shipping to deposition of S
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
Emission factors cars higher than expected
Artemis, diesel, NOx
2.5
Euro I
Euro II
Euro III
2
[g/km]
Euro IV
1.5
1
0.5
0
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
Average Speed [km/h]
105
120
135
Emission factors cars higher than expected
Artemis, diesel, NOx
ARE THERE
MORE
SCIENTIFIC
CHANGES
IN PIPELINE?
2.5
Euro I
Euro II
Euro III
2
[g/km]
Euro IV
1.5
1
0.5
0
0
15
30
45
60
75
90
Average Speed [km/h]
105
120
135
With CLE emissions significantly decrease,
with the exception of NH3 and CO2
[EU25, Primes projection]
175%
175%
150%
150%
125%
125%
100%
100%
75%
75%
50%
50%
25%
25%
0%
2000
0%
2000
GDP
2005
2010
2015
2020
GDP
Primary
energy use
CO2
2005
2010
2015
2020
SO2
NOx
VOC
GDP
Primary
GDP energy
GDP
Primary
GDP
Primary
use
energy
GDP
Primary
energy
use
Primary
CO2
energy
use
Primary
energy
CO2
use
SO2
energy
CO2
use SO2
CO2
use
NOxCO2
SO2 NOx
SO2
VOC
NOx VOC
PM2.5
NH3
PM2.5
Remaining problem areas in 2020
Eutrophication remains wide scale problem
Health+vegetation - ozone
Semi-natural – acid dep
Vegetation – N dep
Freshwater – acid dep
Forests – acid dep
Health - PM
2004 - Distance to Target NOx
Preliminary data !
Meteorologisk Institutt met.no
To do list
 Improve & update national emissions projections
• Non EU-countries
• What control measures are envisaged and when? (TFEIP)
 Write TFIAM background document to the official review
report
Same structure, including figures & 4 additional items:
•
•
•
•
Add para. on policy development in EU to TFIAM-document
Describe the quality of models used based on reviews
Explore new knowledge on damage to materials
Discuss costs and benefits of Gothenburg Protocol ?
Preparations for revision of the Protocol
 Modelling particulate matter
 Local air pollution modelling (TFMM)
 Update MFR, including emerging technologies & nontechnical measures
 Inclusion of GHG abatement measures  GAINS
 Options for target setting & robustness of strategies