Transcript The Great Irish Famine 1845-1849

The Specter of Famine
in Pre-Modern Europe
and Today
Thomas Malthus
An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798)
• Danger of an
“overpopulated” society.
• A large percentage of the
population close to
subsistence—difficult to
save, borrow or trade.
• Population will outrun food
supply and there will be
starvation.
• Shocks—bad harvests or
war may cause widespread
death.
Simple Model---what’s equilibrium
Real
Wage
Real
Wage
Population
Births
Current Wage
Subsistence wage
Deaths
Demand for Labor
Population
Birth Rate, Death Rate
If at subsistence wage and there is a boom harvest? harvest failure?
Famines—a Persistent Feature of Human
Existence—until the 19th Century
• What do people die of during famines?
• Starvation? Disease?
• Weakening of Immune System, Population
Movement Spreads Disease
• Births also Fall.
• How to measure Death Toll?
• What is excess mortality? Why is this hard
to measure
Medieval Crises
• Great Famine in England
– 1314 poor harvest, 1315 & 1317 bad harvests
(wheat yield down 60% in 1315) 1318 a good
year but then disastrous harvest 1321-22.
– Problem of back-to-back bad harvests
– Population 5 million---1/2 million deaths.
• Black Death—the Bubonic Plague
– 1348-1349: 2.5 to 3 million deaths.
Famines Common: Example of France
• Population 1650: 19.5 million, 1685 22.0 million
• Big country---regional crises—huge price
differences even in crises: poor transportation
system—slow and inefficient.
• Famines
–
–
–
–
1650-1652---1.1 million excess deaths
1661-1662---0.9 million excess deaths
1693-1694---1.2 million excess deaths
1709-1710---0.6 million excess deaths.
But in England---famines disappear
in the 17th century----why?
Rising Output and Productivity—
Threat of Famine Recedes
The Great Irish Famine
1845-1849
• Population of Ireland 1841 was 8.2 million
• Excess Mortality 1845-1850 was 1 million or
12% of the population.
• In 1840s famine in Flanders 50,000 die out of
population of 1.4 million (3.6%), 60,000 in
Netherlands with a population of 3 million (2%).
• Finland 1867-1868, population of 1.6 million,
100,000 deaths or 7%
• But Ireland is part of United Kingdom—
wealthiest country in the world and there is no
famine in England, Wales or Scotland
The British Isles
Why Ireland? Background
• Long troubled relationship with Britain
• England conquers area around Dublin in middle ages
• Reformation—England becomes predominantly
Protestant, Ireland remains predominantly Catholic.
• 1688---Battle of the Boyne, King William defeats
James II, penal laws imposed on the Irish, Catholics
excluded from political life.
• By late 1700s most of penal legislation repealed
• 1800 Ireland becomes a full and equal part of the UK
with Act of Union. Irish Parliament absorbed into
British Parliament.
• First four decades of 19th century,Ireland enjoys a
boom and economic growth
Ireland 1841
• Great Britain has a population of 18.5
million, GDP of £452 million or per capita
£24
• Ireland has a population of 8.2 million,
GDP of £124 million or per capita £15
• But Germany has population of 33.4
million GDP of 7.3 billion marks and a per
capita income of £8.7
The Legacy of the Potato
Irish Lifestyle
•
•
•
•
85% of population lives in rural areas
Houses of stone & thatched
Fuel is peat
Average height of Irish 5’ 8” while English
5’ 61/2” and Belgian 5’ 6”
Irish Diet---was it bad?
• Potato is central. Supplemented by milk,
cheese, oatmeal and some fish and eggs.
Poorest Irish subsist on diet of potatoes and milk.
• Sufficient for agricultural labor
Weaknesses of Irish Economy
• Few farmers own land. Most of land held
by 8,000 landlords, a product of English
conquest. Thus, little wealth.
• 1843 mean farm size 10.5 acres, but 81%
below 20 acres and 10% under one acre large number of subsistence farmers,
grow potatoes and graze a cow and a few
sheep. Dominate Western Ireland.
• Rapid population growth---1.3%, England
1%, France 0.4%
Landlord and Tenant
Immediate Background
• Previous famines in Ireland
• 1800-1801 and 1816-1818---war years, kill
50,000 people each
• Famine in 1822, low mortality because of
effective public action.
• But nothing in previous experience like
what happened.
An Ecological Disaster
• Appearance in 1845 of Phytophthora infestans--a fungus or blight that infects potatoes while they
are underground and causes them to rot.
Leaves die and fields begin to stink before
people are aware. Plant is inedible. Early crop
escapes
• 1846—General blight. Thousands die in
summer as people wait for new harvest
• No blight in 1847 but few see potatoes, small
crop
• 1848, blight destroyed much of crop
• Blight continues in some parts of country to 1851
Incidence of the Famine
How to Measure Mortality
• Excess Mortality
• Problems
– Some natural deaths
– Emigration
– Fall in Births—400,00 missing births
• Ireland transformed from a country of high
birth rate to low birth rate---an anomaly
until the last decade.
Ireland Compared
Population of Ireland (millions)
Ireland
1821 6.8
1831 7.8
1841 8.2
1851 6.6
1861 5.8
1881 5.2
1911 4.4
Republic of Ireland
1926 3.0
1937 3.0
Northern Ireland
1.3
1.3
1961 2.8
1971 3.0
2005 4.0
1.4
1.5
1.6
Population Ravaged
• People flee the farms to any village or
town to beg for food or ask to be accepted
into the workhouses for the poor.
• Workhouses—for the destitute who
renounce all possessions. When full
people turned away. Must work hard.
Supported by local property taxes--problem now landlords can’t pay taxes.
Digging for Potatoes
House 1847
Scavanging
Eviction
After the Eviction
A later eviction
Sold Clothes for Food
Distribution of Clothes
Village of Mienies 1847
Famine Funeral
Aid?
• Government in London hesitates. In 1845 it
sells grain cheaply in Ireland. Prime Minister
Peel criticized—relief causes idleness and
dependency
• 1846 Outdoor relief, 700,000 employed. But
does not help families where no one can work.
3 million people are supported by public soup
kitchens. Corn-maize gruel.
• Somewhere between 1.0 and 1.5 million die and
500,000 and 1.0 milion emigrate.
• Death common among poorest with tiny plots.
Aid?
• British see Ireland as an alien country. Poverty due to
laziness and indifference. Feeding the hungry will only
encourage population growth. Malthusian belief.
• The Economist: Paying people “not what their labour is
worth, not whay their labour can be purchased for but
what is sufficient for a comfortable subsistence for
themselves and their family…would stimulate every man
to marry and populate as fast as he could, like a rabbit in
a warren.”
• Nassau Senior (an economist): “For we may be sure that
if we allow the cancer of pauperism to complete the
destruction of Ireland, and then to throw fresh venom into
the already predisposed body of England, the ruin of all
that makes England worth living in is a question only of
time.”
Aid?
• Not everyone dogmatic Malthusian.
• Church relief
• Considerable government relief---but limited by
fears of encouraging the poor---maize based
gruel in soup kitchens, idea it won’t be resold.
Low nutritional value.
• Treasury provided £9.5 million, but did buy out
West Indian slave owners for £20 million.
• Donor fatigue by 1847
Queen Victoria
Recovery
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•
Emigration
Reduction in Birth Rate
Switch in Crops, still heavily agricultural
Incomes rise
But…continued bitter relations landlordtenant and Ireland-England
• A relatively unsuccessful European
economy until the 1990s.