Transcript Presentation by Caterina De Lucia

WP6 Modelling Stackeholders Interplay and Policy Scenarios for Biorefineries and Biodiesel Production
Final SUSTOIL Conference
Düsseldorf, 7-9 June 2010
The Sustoil model for Europe:
macroeconomic and policy views
Dr Caterina De Lucia
University of York
1
Contents of the talk
Part I

Aims and objectives of the WP6

Schematic view of the CGE (UoY)

Interactions between WP5 and WP6-CGE modelling
Part II

Production struction without and with biorefineries

Database and software info

Policies

Main results

Conclusions - highlights
2
Part I: Aims and objectives of the WP6
Policy simulation analysis
for bio-refineries


Social network interactions
across stakeholders
Macroeconomic and policy
analysis
Agent Based
Model (ABM)
Computable
General
Equilibrium
(CGE) Model
3
Part I: Schematic view of the CGE (UoY)
Macroeconomic CGE model for bio-refineries
(deals with the inter-relationships between different markets and
sectors of the economy)
Theoretical model
Definition of behavioural relationships for:
• production
• consumption
• trade
• government
• emissions
Applied model
• Calibration analysis (for the EU-27)
• Benchmark case: current state of
technology and consumption (fossil fuel
use, biofuels as energy factors to
production, current land use, current
emission levels)
• Policy options (Bio-based economy, EU
targets of biofuels share in total energy)
• Model’s validation (sensitivity analysis)
4
Interactions between WP5 and WP6-CGE modelling
WP6-CGE modelling a biorefinery economy
WP5
Other
firms
Optimal
Biodiesel
Optimal
Biogas for
bio-electricity
BioRefineries
Gov’t
Optimal
Bio-schemes
Input
factors
Pollution
CO2
Households
HOME Trade
ABROAD
5
The production structure with no biorefineries
6
The production structure with biorefineries
7
Database used
Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) v6.1.
https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/
Macroeconomic information given in Social Accounting
Matrix (SAM) form. This provides a conceptual and
behavioural framework to link the components of an economy
to each other.
A SAM is a square matrix where each account is a row and a
colum entry (see next slide).
8
Environmental extended SAM
To
Firm
Household
Government
Rest of the
World
Net
Investments
Total
(Income)
Emissions
Consump.
Consump.
Exports
Investments
Total inc.
firm
Emissions
Consump.
Exports
From
Firm
Household
Wages
Government
Taxes
Taxes
Total
incomes
governme
nt
Rest of the
World
Impor
ts
Imports
Total inc.
Row
Net
Investment
Total
(expenditure)
Total
exp.
firms
Savings
Savings
Total exp.
household
Total exp.
government
Total inc.
household
Total
savings
Total exp.
Row
Total exp.
Investments
Total
9
Database
The current database is the Global Trade Analysis Project v6.0
at the URL: www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/
Description
GTAP 6.0
(2001 base
year)
SUSTOIL
model
Commodities
57
12
Activities
57
12
Factors
5
5
Regions
87
5
Margin
Commodities
3
3
Domestic
Institutions
4
4
Added information from WP5
on Biodiesel and Electricity
from Biogas using oil seeds
10
Main added information






Input and output data (including prices) on biodiesel and
electricity from biogas refinery – WP5
Country prices on labour data for biorefineries
Country prices on feed-in tariffs for electricity
Country tax exemptions on biodiesel (in 2007)
Sectoral CO2 equivalent emission factors (taken from
DEFRA and WP5)
Elastities values for production with biorefineries (taken
from various recent sources)
11
Policies considered in the model
Policy objective: 20 % reduction in CO2 using 20% renewables by
2020
Policy experiments:
Change from a EU no-biobased economy to one with:



A EU biorefinery economy
Biofuels targets share in total energy by 5.75% by 2010
Biodiesel tax exemptions
12
Main policy results
Sectors
GDP % change
North EU South EU
West EU
EU 10
All EU
oth_agr
-12.75
-4.76
-2.87
-43.84
-13.36
osd
203.90
-22.53
223.10
6278.00
689.69
en_int_ind
-11.47
-13.48
-4.68
-41.65
-11.53
oth_ind
-7.53
-6.88
1.73
-37.82
-4.88
gas
5.73
-30.35
-11.00
28.95
-9.09
coa
-8.81
7.95
-5.21
-1.87
-3.58
oil
-21.83
-23.78
-13.42
-61.28
-22.32
oil_pcts
-21.21
-23.94
-12.41
-63.99
-19.46
transp
-12.16
-13.74
-2.10
-51.25
-11.44
ely
6.28
12.18
10.24
42.28
12.96
13
Main policy results
NorthEu
CO2
equivalent
emissions (%
change)
-12.63
SouthEu
WestEU
-14.82
-8.81
EU10
2.70
14
Main policy results
NorthEu
SouthEu
WestEU
EU10
Land used by
osd (% of osd)
181.33
-20.15
187.6
3992
Land used by
osd (% of total
land)
13.00
-1.96
14.38
96.31
15
Main policy results
NorthEu
SouthEu
WestEU
EU10
Electricity
price (%
change )
-2.25
-3.13
0.038
-8.46
Oil price (%
change)
-15.48
-14.56
-14.41
-24.26
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Concluding remarks - highlights




Biorefineries working from Oil Seeds and their by-products
will lead to a large increase in the amount of this crop
grown – particularly in Eastern Europe
This will be accompanied by decreases in sectoral GDP in
several other areas
There will be a decrease in CO2 emissions, but insufficient
to meet the EU’s target of 20 %. Other environmental
measures could be used to fill this gap
Oil and electricity prices will generally fall in across the EU,
with a particularly notable trend in Eastern Europe
17