Transcript The Potential Savings of Different Modes

Business Logistics 420
Public Transportation
Fall 2001
Lectures 15
Policy Issues II: Public
Transportation and Energy
Conservation
Lecture Objectives
• Provide an overview of energy consumption
trends and transportation’s significance in
energy use and conservation
• Describe options for reducing transportation
sector’s consumption of energy
• Evaluate public transit’s energy efficiency
and potential contribution to energy
conservation
The Big Picture
• United States accounts for about 30 percent
of the world’s energy consumption
• The transportation sector in the US accounts
for 28 percent of all energy consumption
and about 62 percent of petroleum
consumption
Energy Consumption by Mode
Pipeline
4%
Water
6%
Rail
2%
Air
9%
Bus
1%
Truck
33%
Other
6%
Auto
39%
The Transportation Energy
Problem
• Energy consumption by the transportation
sector has increased and is likely to
continue to increase due to
– increasing population
– increased vehicle miles of travel per person
• Energy supply, especially petroleum, is
finite, and increasingly more costly to
obtain
The Transportation Energy
Problem (Continued)
• Periodic supply/demand imbalances have
caused shortages and/or price spikes
–
–
–
–
1973-74
1980-81
1991
2000
Arab Oil Embargo
Unrest in the Middle East
Gulf War
OPEC Supply Controls
• Dependence on foreign oil dictates national
defense policy and international political
strategies
The Transportation Energy
Problem (Continued)
• Energy consumption directly related to air
quality issues
• Domestic energy production has
environmental consequences
– drilling
– pipelines (spills and construction disruptions)
– ocean shipping hazards (Alaska, e.g., Exxon
Valdez spill)
How to Achieve Goal of Reduced
Energy Consumption by
Transportation Sector
• Reduce overall demand for travel by all
modes
• Shift travel to more energy efficient modes,
e.g., transit, walking, bike, carpool/vanpool
• Improve efficiency of modes
• To save petroleum, shift to other fuels
Reduce Overall Travel
• Increase travel costs
– fuel price increase
– taxes on fuel or other aspects of travel
• Restrict auto travel, auto-free zones, limit
days of travel
• Promote non-travel options such as
telecommuting
Shift to More Efficient Modes
• Which modes are most efficient -- great
debate?
• How to encourage/require shifts
– regulatory requirements -- negative
– incentives -- positive
Increase Efficiency of Existing
Modes
• Particular focus on automobile
• Choices
– Market driven
– Regulation of auto manufacturers
Conserve Petroleum by Shifting
to other Fuels
• Electric Vehicles
• Natural Gas
• More “obscure” liquid fuels
– gasohol (ethanol from agricultural products)
– peanut oil
– shale oil
• Again -- how?
– Market forces
– Regulations/taxes
Major US Policy Choices
•
•
•
•
Fuel efficient automobiles/light trucks
Fuel cost increase
Carpool/Vanpool
Transit
Requiring Fuel Efficient Motor
Vehicles -- The Most Effective
Strategy So Far
• Corporate Average Fuel Economy Standards
(CAFE)
– Implemented in 1978
– Now 27.5 mph for autos
– About 20.2 for light truck/SUV exemption
• Current Issues
– Raising CAFE for autos
– Raising light truck/SUV to same standard as
auto
•From NHTSA 1998 Annual Report on Automotive Fuel
Economy Program
http://www.ita.doc.gov/td/auto/cafenhtsa.html
•From NHTSA 1998 Annual Report on Automotive Fuel
Economy Program
http://www.ita.doc.gov/td/auto/cafenhtsa.html
•From NHTSA 1998 Annual Report on Automotive Fuel
Economy Program
http://www.ita.doc.gov/td/auto/cafenhtsa.html
Increasing Fuel Costs to Increase
Cost of Driving
• Politically unpopular
• Not likely to work unless very large
increase -- travel is gasoline price inelastic
• Issues
– impact on economy -- reduced auto production,
reduced employment
– reduced savings rate -- shift income to pay for
fuel
– equity concerns -- impact on low income
drivers
Shift to More Efficient Modes
• Question -- Which modes are more
efficient?
• How do you encourage/require the shift?
Does Transit Save Energy?
• Any analysis of energy efficiency of
transportation modes depends on many
assumptions and estimates
• Congressional Budget Office attempted an
analysis of various transit modes compared
to the private auto (Urban Transportation
and Energy: The Potential Savings of
Different Modes, 1977)
CBO Study
• Some of the data is now dated, but the
methodology remains valid
• Purpose of the study was to guide Congress
on policy decisions related to transit
investment and energy conservation
Comprehensive Framework for
Energy Use Analysis
•
•
•
•
Energy Intensiveness
Line Haul Energy
Modal Energy
Program Energy
Energy Intensiveness
• Most basic, and typical measure of energy
use
• Includes
– Propulsion energy per vehicle mile (mpg)
– Average vehicle occupancy
Comparison of Modes Using
Energy Intensiveness Figure
• Automobile
– 20 mpg
– 1.5 passengers on average
– Result -- 30 passenger miles per gallon
• Bus
– 4 mpg
– 20 passengers on average
– Result -- 80 passenger miles per gallon
Energy Intensiveness Issues
• Actual utilization vs capacity
• Bus Example
– Full bus 60 psgrs x 4 mpg = 240 pmpg
– Average bus 20 psgrs x 4 mpg = 80 pmpg
• Auto Example
– Full car 6 psgrs x 20 mpg = 120 pmpg
– Average car 1.5 psgrs x 20 mpg = 30 pmpg
Line Haul Energy
• Includes Energy Intensiveness plus
– Station and maintenance energy consumption
– Construction energy
– Vehicle manufacturing energy
• Goal is to include the non-vehicle
operations energy consumption, but hard to
do
• Reduces the energy efficiency of rail transit
Modal Energy
• Includes energy intensiveness and line haul
energy plus
– Mode used for access (e.g., auto to rail station)
– Fraction of trip devoted to access
– Circuity of mode -- straight line distance vs
actual distance traveled
•Example of Circuity – back haul to rail station
Program Energy
• Includes energy intensiveness, line haul,
modal energy plus
– Source of new patronage
– trips not previously taken
• Resulting total program energy is what
CBO says should be used to evaluate
policies to encourage mode shifts
CBO Results
• Vanpools are the most efficient mode
– No empty back haul
– High energy intensiveness (15 psgrs x 15 mpg
= 225 pmpg)
• Dial a bus is the least energy efficient
– Circuity
– Low energy intensiveness (3 psgrs x 3 mpg = 9
pmpg)
CBO Results (Continued)
• New heavy rail systems efficient when
measured in terms of energy intensiveness
but not overall program energy
• Reasons for low rating of heavy rail
– Significant percentage of total trip still by auto
– Circuity
– Most new patrons taken from other energy
efficient modes -- bus, carpool/vanpool
Study Questions
• Does transit save energy? Present your answer in
terms of the evaluation methodology proposed by
the Congressional Budget Office.
• What are the major policies considered by the US
over the past 25 years as ways to reduce energy
consumption in the transportation sector? Which
ones have worked?
Study Questions (Continued)
• According to the Congressional Budget Office
study, new heavy rail transit systems save very
little energy. Why? What mode does that study
conclude is best as far as energy conservation?
Why?