Transcript Devon Futures Presentation - South Hams District Council

Devon in 2038
and how should it affect our strategic
planning now?
Report of the work of Devon Futures Group
Devon Futures
• Who are we?
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Met Office
EDF
Devon & Cornwall Business Council
Devon Wildlife Trust
Environment Agency
Dartington Hall Trust
Devon Community Council of Devon
DCC strategic intelligence
DCC Community Strategy
DCC Environment, Economy & Culture
Devon and Cornwall Housing Association
DSP
Facilitator
Rob Varley
Mike Davy
Tim Jones
Paul Gompertz
Paul Sadler
Vaughan Lindsay
Jay Talbot
Pip Tucker
Ian Hobbs
Edward Chorlton
Theresa Butchers
Caroline Rae
Nicola Channon
What we tried to do
• We were asked to think about, and try to
understand, what Devon might be like in
the future.
• We heard evidence from experts in
climate, energy, housing, transport,
agriculture, and the environment
• We tried to think about what impact all this
might have on our lives and what we
should be doing now to respond
Work in progress
1979
What made us sit up and take
notice?
South West Cumulative Sea Level Rise - 2002 Baseline
(Defra 2006)
1200
Sea Level Rise (mm)
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1980
2000
2020
2040
2060
Year
2080
2100
2120
2140
Natural or human induced?
UK impacts
Heatwaves: Summer 2003
1,800
40
1,700
35
1,600
no. of deaths
1,400
25
1,300
20
1,200
1,100
1,000
15
Average daily deaths 1998-2002
ONS Estimated daily deaths 2003
Maximum temperature (London)
10
900
800
01-Jul
5
08-Jul
15-Jul
22-Jul
29-Jul
05-Aug
12-Aug
19-Aug
26-Aug
temperature oC
30
1,500
Devon impacts
Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C
Heatwaves: The future
observations
HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)
2003
2040s
2060s
Axminster
1951
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Axminster
2021
85+
80-84
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
So what?
• ‘Perfect storm’ of increasing demand for
food, energy & water at same time as
adapting to and mitigating climate change
– Implications for size/shape of sector – less oil
more labour?
– Implications for how land is used and
managed –reduced soil disturbance
– Implications for protected areas
– Implications for research and intelligence
In the past energy demand has mainly been
driven by GDP and demographic growth
Final UK Energy Consumption in TWh
+ 8.5%
2500
2000
Solid Fuels & others
• GDP and population
growth are the two
main factors that have
increase energy
demand
Electricity
1500
Natural Gas
1000
500
Oil
19
80
19
82
19
84
19
86
19
88
19
90
19
92
19
94
19
96
19
98
20
00
20
02
20
04
20
06
20
08
20
10
20
12
20
14
20
16
20
18
20
20
20
22
20
24
20
26
20
28
20
30
Source: Global
Insight 2008 European Energy and Environment Outlook (last actual year 2007).
0
• If this continued UK
energy demand would
increase slightly until
2030
• Electricity and solid fuel
consumption should
grow the fastest
But fighting Climate Change will have a high
impact on energy demand
UK CO2 emissions (million tonnes)
Other
Total 80%
reduction
from 1990
• Tackling climate change requires a
step change in energy consumption.
Government’s target is to cut
Greenhouse Gases emissions by 80%
in 2050 (compared to 1990 level)
159
• Decarbonising electricity is a key step
towards the target.
The Climate Change Committee
believes the electricity sector can
reduce its emissions by 90% by 2030
by using wind and nuclear generation.
124
(with non CO2 GHG)
Industry
Heat
(Residential and
Commercial)
Transport
(with Aviation
& shipping)
Electricity
108
103
176
Electricity
Reduction
by 2030
184
2006 emissions
Source: Climate Change Committee, EDF Energy Analysis
2050 Target
• Low CO2 electricity will then make a
major contribution to decarbonising
other sectors by substituting fossil
fuels
Other points
• 8-10 year time lag between knowing what
is true and then acting upon it
• Period over the next 30 years – not just
about 2039 but also about how we get
there.
• Fortune favours the prepared mind.
• So what?
• This is not just about climate change or
reducing carbon, although they are
important, it is about what we should be
doing now to prepare for an uncertain
future.
So what might Devon be like?
• Getting to work
well done for creating
work hubs
still too much
congestion
• Health and wellbeing
– noticeably more
elderly people
– not enough carers
– booming senior
citizens social scene
• Adapting to climate
change
- people more
resilient to flooding;
self-help worked
- difficult
development choices
not made
• Energy security
- local community
combined heat and
power embraced
- periodic blackouts
for some, not for
others
DSP Conference
December 2039
Devon 2069 – are we
ready?
Your job – in groups
• What can DSP do to plan for the scenarios
in the future?
• Each group identify 3 items to feed back to
the conference