Transcript Patrick Criqui

Post-2012 climate policy :
the participation challenge
from the « Greenhouse gas Reduction Pathways
in the UN-FCCC process up to 2025 » study
GRP, LEPII-EPE coord. for DG-ENV
http://europa.eu.int/comm/environment/climat/studies.htm
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
1
1. World Reduction Pathways
2. International Climate Architectures
3. The Participation Challenge
4. Consistent Strategies
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
2
1. World Reduction Pathways
2. International Climate Architectures
3. The Participation Challenge
4. Consistent Strategies
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
3
GRP: the need for further action

World greenhouse gas emissions, if unconstrained,
will lead to high levels of atmospheric concentrations

Over the second half of the next century, the
Reference Projection results in emissions of the 6
“Kyoto basket” gases (i.e. CO2 , CH4 , N2O, HFC, PFC
and SF6) that are equivalent to 70-75 Gt of CO2
(GtCO2e) each year

This represents a doubling, from world current 6
GHGs emissions, i.e. 37 GtCO2e/yr in 2000

These emission levels would induce concentration
levels of more than 900 ppmv CO2e in 2100
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
4
GRP: goals and corresponding scenarios

The EU goal of limiting average temperature
increase to “less than plus 2°C, compared to
pre-industrial level” can be translated into
concentration and emission profiles …

In GRP “reduction profiles” have thus been
defined, for the set of 6 Kyoto gases:
- S550e for a stabilisation at 550 ppmv CO2 eq. (450
ppmv CO2 only); it will meet the “less than plus 2°C
from pre-industrial” target for a low to median value of
the Climate Sensitivity Factor
- S650e for a stabilisation at 650 ppmv CO2 eq. (550
ppmv CO2 only); it will meet the target only if the
Climate Sensitivity is low
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
5
GRP: the S550e and S650e global profiles
80
GHG Emissions (GtCO2-eq)
70
Baseline
60
50
40
S65 0e
30
S55 0e
20
10
0
1970
1990
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
IMAGE 2.2

Emissions have to peak before 2020 in S550e and before 2030 in S650e

2050 emissions should correspond to “1990 emissions minus 15%” in
S550e or to “1990 emissions plus 15 %” in S650e
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
6
1. World Reduction Pathways
2. International Climate Architectures
3. The Participation Challenge
4. Consistent Strategies
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
7
GRP: the possible architectures

An international architecture without emission targets
(e.g. commitment on R&D spending) is conceivable,
but would probably miss any of the identified profiles

Emission reduction targets can be defined either:
- through a global emission profile (top-down)
- or individual targets for the different parties (bottom-up)

The form and timing for participation can be identical
for all Parties or with differing targets or time-horizons

The type of commitment can be defined in absolute or
dynamic terms (intensity targets)

Different equity principles can be used: egalitarian,
acquired rights, responsibility, capability
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
8
GRP: profiles and architectures

While many options for the design of a
climate architecture can be explored …

the commitments for the different regions
basically depend on:
- the choice of the long term emission profile
- decisions made on the type of participation
for non-Annex I countries

This is why the diversity in options can be
subsumed though the use of a limited
number of generic models
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
9
GRP: the Multi-Stage schemes

Multi-Stage is an “increasing participation” scheme,
with Parties progressively entering into different
stages:
- in Stage 1 Parties have no “binding” quantitative commitment
(case for the Least Developed Countries)
- in Stage 2 they have to comply to dynamic “intensity targets”
(case for the Emerging Economies)
- in Stage 3 they comply to absolute emission targets, as resulting
from the global profile (Annex 1 countries)

In GRP, three Multi-Stage schemes have been
defined, using a Capacity-Responsibility index (cf.
Art. 3.1. of UN-FCCC)
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
10
2050 endowments: some hard accounting facts

From the GRP profiles and MS endowment
schemes, one can retain the following useful orders
of magnitude on outcomes and requirements :
2050 endowmts. compared to 1990 emiss.
Emission
profile
Temp. increase
(median IPCC
2001 CSF)
S650e
+ 2.5°C from pre-ind.
+ 1.9 °C from today
S550e
+1.6 °C from pre-ind.
+ 1.0 °C from today
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Annex I
/ Factor 2
/ Factor 4
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Non Annex I
x2
x5
(LAM, MET, SEEA)
x1
x3
(LAM, MET, SEEA)
(AFR, SOA = baseline)
(AFR, SOA)
Brussels November 22, 2004
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GRP: Conclusions on profiles and endowments

The GRP study is only a first step, but shows that:
- meeting the EU climate objective will require a peak in world
emissions within a few decades
- the taking into account of a global profile is probably a condition
for attaining this target
- the possible architectures are many, but simple schemes can be
designed, with reasonable properties in terms of international
equity

For the Annex I countries the S650e profile would
imply a reduction in endowments by a factor of 2 in
2050 (relative to 1990); S550e would require a Factor
4 reduction
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
12
1. World Reduction Pathways
2. International Climate Architectures
3. The Participation Challenge
4. Consistent Strategies
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
13
GRP: Motivations for participation

For any Party to an international climate agreement,
the first motivation for participation should be the
safeguard of climate as a Global Public Good …

In order to avoid the adverse consequences of
uncontrolled climate change, in particular for the
most vulnerable parts of the world
Adaptation costs +
residual damages
S750e
S650e
S550e
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Mitigation
costs
Brussels November 22, 2004
14
GRP: Costs and potential gains from global
cap and international trading systems

The ratio of direct (sectoral) abatement costs to GDP
provides a good indication of the “rate of effort” for
each region

In most Annex I regions and in 2025, this rate of effort
represents 0.5 to 1% of GDP in S550e and 0.1 to 0.2%
of GDP in S650e

Due to their endowments, low-income regions receive
a net benefit from emission trading …

while intermediate income or high per capita
emission developing regions incur net costs
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
15
GRP S650e effort rates up to 2025:
sectoral cost / GDP
Discounted Effort Rate (2011 - 2025)
Discounted Effort Rate (2011 - 2025)
(Cost/GDP)
-0,60%
M S1
-0,60%
M S2
-0,80%
India
China
P CC2050
P CC2100
Rest SE & E Asia
-0,40%
P CC2100
Rest South Asia
P CC2050
-0,20%
ME & Turkey
-0,40%
Oceania
-0,20%
Africa
0,00%
Japan
0,00%
CIS +
Other
0,20%
Canada
0,20%
USA
0,40%
Enlarged
EU*
0,40%
Latin Am
(Cost/GDP)
M S1
M S2
M S3
-0,80%
M S3
Source: POLES model
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
16
GRP S550e effort rates up to 2025:
sectoral cost / GDP
Discounted Effort Rate (2011 - 2025)
Discounted Effort Rate (2011 - 2025)
(Cost/GDP)
(Cost/GDP)
1,50%
1,50%
1,00%
1,00%
0,50%
0,50%
0,00%
0,00%
M S2
-2,00%
M S2
China
India
Africa
Rest SE & E Asia
-1,50%
M S1
Rest South Asia
P CC2100
-1,00%
Latin Am
Japan
P CC2050
-0,50%
ME & Turkey
-1,50%
CIS +
Other
Canada
USA
M S3
Oceania
-1,00%
P CC2100
M S1
Enlarged
EU*
-0,50%
P CC2050
-2,00%
M S3
Source: POLES model
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
17
GRP: Co-benefits of climate policies,
the case of NOx
S650e
2000
S550e
1500
1000
500
SE & EAsia
South Asia
ME & Turkey
Africa
Latin America
Japan
Oc
FSU
0
Enlarged EU
The positive
impacts are
particularly
noticeable for the
“low-income but
rapidly growing”
regions in Asia
Baseline
2500
Can/USA

Climate policies
induce significant
changes from
baseline for
sulphur and
nitrogen oxydes
emissions
NOx emission (kg.N/km2)

Source: IMAGE-TIMER model
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
18
1. World Reduction Pathways
2. International Climate Architectures
3. The Participation Challenge
4. Consistent Strategies
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
19
Elements of a consistent strategy - 1

Further action is needed, global targets and
emission trading systems will be keystones
for collective action

The EU climate target will imply strong
emission reduction targets (Factor 2 to 4
reductions for 2050 in Annex I countries)

The costs of these policies should neither be
exaggerated nor minimized, as they will imply
important changes in societies and major
technological innovations
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
20
Elements of a consistent strategy - 2

Mastering the low- or no-carbon energy
technologies will be the key to sustainability
and economic competitiveness in the XXIst
century, but it will have costs in the short term

The EU has to set ambitious goals, but cannot
do it alone. This implies to:
- Demonstrate its capability to implement effective
domestic climate policies
- Identify international actions in the short term that aim
at- and are consistent with- a future global regime
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
21
Elements of a consistent strategy - 3

To ease the participation challenge, a solution
to be explored might be the one of
“proportionate targets” :
- The EU sets an ultimate climate policy goal, with a
range of targets for its own commitment
- The EU’s binding target is then defined inside this
range, proportionally to the commitments of the other
key Parties

This may make international responsibilities
clearer and to some extent deter free-riding …
P. Criqui, LEPII-EPE
Post 2012 Climate Policy
Brussels November 22, 2004
22