Transcript Sept 2008 - the Defence and Security Forum

NORD-SUD VENTURES
Strategy & Lobbying Consultants
Building up Confidence: Prospects and Challenges
by Arslan CHIKHAOUI
Economic & Political Specialist and CEO
Middle East Association Seminar on Algeria
London November 6th, 2008
Head Office : 3, rue Gara Djebilet (ex. Jean Macé), 16000 Algiers-Algeria
Tel: (+213) (0)21 632 429 / Fax: (+213) (0)21 632 430
E-mail: [email protected]
Socio Economic Overall view and perspectives
Real 2007
Probable
2008
Prediction
2009
Estimate
2012
World growth of GDP (%)
3.7
2.7
2.1
3.2
MENA growth (%)
5.5
6.1
5.5
5.9
Potential Algeria GDP growth (%)
4.2
2.5
4.7
5.3
Real Algeria GDP growth (%)
4.6
4.2
4,5
6,4
Trade balance (bn USD)
34,3
38,2
34,1
37,9
Population (million)
33,9
34,4
34,9
36,4
GDP per capita (USD at the market
exchange rate)
3,880
4,810
5,000
6,220
Household consumption per capita (USD)
1,220
1,460
1,570
1,830
3.5
5.4
4.2
3.6
Banks Commercial rate of loan (%)
8
8.1
8.2
7.5
Interest rate at deposit (average %)
1.8
2
2.5
2.5
Labor (million)
9,4
9,4
9,5
9,8
Jobs (million)
8,1
8,3
8,5
9,2
Unemployment rate (%)
11.8
15
12,5
10,1
Net foreign direct investments (bn USD)
1,7
2
2,6
3
Total external debt (bn USD)
4
3
2,7
3,2
Total external debt (% of GDP)
3
1.8
1.6
1.4
5.7
3.5
3.1
3
Designation
Inflation (%)
Debt/exports ratio (%)
Predictions and estimates: NSV Business Intelligence Unit
Country risks
OECD grading confirms that Algeria is one of the best country risks in the North African region.
The main handicaps for investment is still the banking system and the bureaucratic red tape.
Corruption
Fighting corruption is a priority for the Algerian Government.
In June 2005, an anti-corruption bill was adopted by parliament. The Law reinforces existing
legislation to comply with the UN Convention against Corruption which Algeria ratified in 2004.
Nevertheless, a lot of efforts remain to be done in this field.
Money laundering
On January 2005, the Government adopted a Law pertaining to money laundering and terrorist
financing to comply with international standards and measures against organized crime.
A Financial Intelligence Unit (CRTF) has been set up.
Transparency International Notation
of North African Countries
Country
Rank
(out of 180)
Corruption perception
index Score
Algeria
99
3,0
Tunisia
61
4,2
Morocco
72
3,5
Libya
131
2,5
Egypt
105
2,9
Grading of the security risk in Algeria
General score in 2008
= 3,25 / 4
Key: 1: Low; 2: Moderate; 3: Sensitive; 4: High; 5: Very High
Source: NSV
Specific scores
Social climate = 3
Terrorism = 3
Criminality = 4
Kidnapping = 3
Evolution of the terrorist acts (executed) in Algeria
from 1992 to Sept 2008
Year
Number of actions
1992
02
1993
07
1994
15
1995
26
1996
1889
1997
1424
1998
1082
1999
775
2000
712
2001
373
2002
320
2003
01
2004
01
2005
00
2006
03
2007
09
Jan – Sept 2008
06
Source : NSV Intelligence Unit and National Institute for Defence Studies
Evolution of the terrorist acts (executed) in Algeria
from 1992 to Sept 2008
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
92 994 996 998 000 002 004 006 008
9
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
Number of Actions
Overview of the global security situation in Algeria
from 1992 to Sept 2008
200000
150000
100000
50000
0
1992-2001 2002-2008
Nbr Actions
Nbr Dead
Nbr Terrorists
PROSPECTS
 Algeria is not the dangerous place to do business it once was. The level of
overall violence will continue to decrease. Crime and banditry to replace
terrorism.
 The aim of the next presidential run is to strengthen the political stability and
to move toward a sustainable economic growth.
 Constitutional amendment is seen more as institutional reforms in order to
create an environment of political stability. The PM’s role is to be empowered.
 Opening up Algerian economy will progress. No question to go backward.
 The next step forward of economic reforms is to speed up the financial
structural reforms.
 Opening up new opportunities for private sector and FDI.
 Reform of the army will progress moving to a professional one.