Transcript Energy Mix For India Under Constraints of Climate Change

Energy Mix For India Under
Constraints of Climate Change
Tejal Kanitkar
Centre for Climate Change and Sustainability Studies
TISS, Mumbai
with modifications/additions by
D.Raghunandan
Delhi Science Forum/
All India Peoples Science Network
Paper presented at and incorporating
recommendations of
AIPSN Workshop on
“Energy Mix for India 2035”
Dec 2012
Work done in collaboration with
Prabir Purkayastha (DSF) & T.Jayaraman (TISS)
Outline
•
•
•
•
Rights based approach to development
Defining the right to energy
The energy-emissions linkage
Carbon budgets – entitlements and actual
realizable carbon space
• Energy within constraints of costs,
emissions, and resources – Energy Model
Right to Energy



If energy is a pre-requisite for human development
– not just economic development – while planning
future development, one should also plan for some
minimum energy per capita commensurate with
human well-being
This per capita energy can of course be aggregated
for each country
How to meet this minimum energy requirement
subject to emission constraints is the key question
for future energy and emissions trajectory
Development Indicators – Context for
India
Per Capita
Per Capita
Per Capita
Per
Per Capita
Countries
Energy
Electricity
Installed
Capita
GNI at PPP
(2007)
Consumption Consumption
Capacity
Emissions
($)
(kgoe)
(kWhr)
(kW/person) (tCO2)
HDI
(2010)
India
2,870
529
452
0.13
1.4
0.52
China
5,640
1,484
2,332
0.48
5
0.66
South
Africa
9,660
2,784
4,944
0.85
9
0.59
UK
36,270
3,465
6,123
1.31
8.8
0.85
US
46,740
7,759
13,638
3.24
19
0.90
World
10,203
1,821
2,875
0.61 (2006)
4.6
-
India has a large development deficit that it needs to address
India: aggregate energy trends
1985
2010
Population (million)
765.1
1150
Energy use (EJ)
10.8
28
Electricity use (Billion units)
157
811
Share of energy imports
8%
~30%
% of hh un-electrified
Not known
46
Renewable power installed
capacity (excl large hydro)
0
17,297 MW
Development vs. Constraints
Value Employ • Employment in agri. disproportionate to
added ment contribution to GDP
as % (% of
• need planned growth in industry; growth of
of GDP total)
rural enterprises
Agri. 16% 56%
• significant infrastructure growth planned in
Ind.
27% 19%
next two decades
Services 57% 25%
• Concerns: environment,
climate change  constraint on emissions
 constraint on fossil fuels
• Also Constraints on:
• availability and use of land and water
• availability of mineral resources domestically
• renewable energy potential
• availability of finance
Understanding energy-economy-environment linkages crucial!
Energy as part of right to development
• development measured not just in GDP growth
• necessary to consider other parameters to
capture development e.g. life expectancy, infant
mortality, etc.
• Unfortunately, Energy Access not one of the 8
MDGs --- insufficient effort invested by civil
society in this, now even Rio+20 come and gone!
HDI vs. Energy Consumption
Life Expectancy vs. Energy
Consumption
Infant Mortality vs. Energy
Consumption
Targets for Energy Use 2035 – (1)
• India should target levels of human development
comparable to mid-level developed countries
• Portugal, the best amongst these – 4860 kWh/person
• Informally also Govt projections
• given current levels of technology, in BAU mode, this
is perhaps reasonable – may change in the future
• Effect of late development
• High carbon energy – low cost
• Low carbon energy – high cost
• Need carbon space to achieve energy equity
Global Emissions


To limit temp. rise to 2 deg. C with 50% probability

658 GtC from 1850 to 2050

of which 332 GtC already emitted (50%)
What is left?


326 GtC
For 25% probability of exceeding 2 deg. C

207 GtC is left
Climate Change Mitigation and the
Global Carbon Budget
• The world has only 326 GtC more
• Ambitious climate change deal a necessity
• Equity should be at the focal point of any new deal
that involves all countries
• No acceptable schema yet
• Distribution of remaining carbon budget (cumulative
emissions) increasing or cutting according to ”fair
shares” of per capita entitlements (TISS-DSF is one
such Schema
Global Carbon Budget Schema
• modeling shows 2 deg C achievable
• A1 sharp cuts (no negative emissions, and allowing for
1970 cut-off year for historical emissions: huge
concession)
• interestingly single framework so dear to US, but still
incorporating equity and CBDR&RC
• large DCs (China, India, Brazil, SA etc 20 nations) must
peak and then reduce on differential time-table
• India peaks around 2035-40; 70-80 GtC budget
Entitlements for A1 and non-A1 countries
based on 2000 population
Annex-I
Non-Annex-I
Total
EntitleContribution
Future
ments –
to stock – entitlements
1850-2050 1850-2009 – 2010-2050
(GtC)
(GtC)
(GtC)
133
245
-112
525
658
86
331
438
326
• These are entitlements not actual space
• Negative emissions not possible
• Even if Annex-I emit zero between 2010-2050, Non-Annex-I are left
with 326 GtC (112 GtC less than what they are owed)
Dividing the actual carbon space
Potential actual
share- 2010-2050
Future
Potential actual (Dividing future
total budget
entitlements share- 20101850
2050 (TISSBasis, Non- – 2010based on 2000
2050 (GtC) DSF model)
LUCF
population)
Annex-I
NonAnnex-I
-112
50
65
438
271
261
Total
326
321
326
Actual Space for India & Other Countries
Potential actual
share (2010-2050)
1850 basis, non- Future entitlements [GtC] – TISS-DSF
LUCF
– 2010-2050 (GtC)
model
USA
-65
18
EU
-35
14
RussianFed.
-11
6
Japan
0
4
Australia
-2
2
Canada
-4
2
OtherAnnexI
4
3
China
103
87
India
103
68
Brazil
16
7
SouthAfrica
1
2
Indonesia
20
10
Mexico
7
2
SouthKorea
2
2
OtherEE
23
18
RotW
163
75
Total
326
321
Potential actual
share 2010-2050
(based on 2000
population)
16
26
7
7
0
3
7
65
55
10
3
10
7
3
20
88
326
Electricity Use
Needed to achieve
Human Development
Electricity
Supply
Coal
Gas
Diesel
Nuclear
Hydro
Biomass
Wind
Solar PV
Solar Thermal
Resource
Constraints
Emissions
Constraints
Cost
Constraints
Fuel Mix, Cost Implications,Various Scenarios can be studied
Example: Power Sector
• Current (2008) per capita electricity use in India
is ~490 kWh/person/year
• Low levels of access, low reliability of supply
• Target: Portugal - 4,860 kWh/year; 4500
kWh/year used in model
Power Sector Baseline Snapshot - 2008
Projections for the Future
Per Capita
Electricity Use
(kWh/person)
2008
Energy vs. GDP per Capita regression @ 8%
GDP Growth
490
1684
IEP Projections (2031-32) @ 8% GDP Growth
2598
IEP Projections (2031-32) @ 9% GDP Growth
3219
MoP Projections (2031-32) @ 8% GDP Growth
3210
MoP Projections (2031-32) @ 9% GDP Growth
Benchmarked against Energy Consumption per
Capita in Portugal
4042
4500
Energy Requirements
• Right to development  Energy requirements
Total Electricity Generation
1E+13
4500 kWh/person
9E+12
8E+12
7E+12
13686 kWh/person
kWh
6E+12
13686 kWh/person
13686 kWh/person
5E+12
4E+12
1450 kWh/person
3E+12
2E+12
638 kWh/person
1E+12
0
2009
2020
USA-Total
India-Total
2035
100%
Renewables
Diesel
90%
Hydro
80%
70%
Nuclear
Natural Gas
60%
50%
40%
Coal
30%
20%
10%
0%
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
Average Plant Capacity Factors
India
USA
Hydro
38%
37%
Coal
70%
72%
Diesel
16%
9%
Gas
58%
25%
Nuclear
47%
91%
Wind
19%
26%
SHP
25%
76%
Biomass
49%
62%
Solar PV
15%
18%
CSP
20%
18%
MSW
31%
37%
Petroleum
Geothermal
100%
Diesel
90%
Renewables
Hydro
80%
Natural Gas
Nuclear
70%
60%
50%
40%
Coal
30%
20%
10%
0%
1977
1982
1987
1992
1997
2002
2007
Constraints on Supply - India
Coal
600,000
Nuclear
63,000
Gas
100,000
Large Hydro
150,000
Diesel
40,000
Wind
100,000 ? - 800,000?
SHP
15,000
CSP
--
Solar PV
--
Biomass
50,000
MSW
30,000
Cost Constraints
Coal
Nuclear
Gas
Biomass
Hydro
Gasp
Diesel
Wind
CSP
SPV
Sources:TERI Energy Roadmap, NCAER-CGE
2010
(Rs./kWh)
2.1
5.1
2.5
4
2.5
3
7
5.5
13
9
Annual
2030
Growth/Redu
(Rs./kWh) ction in tariff
3.4
1.13%
4.2
-0.45%
4.35
1.39%
3.54
-0.30%
3.25
0.66%
4.85
1.21%
15.4
2.00%
4.5
-0.49%
9.6
-1.5%
6
-2%
8E+09
Power Plants – Existing vs. New Stock
7E+09
6E+09
MkWh/year
5E+09
4E+09
3E+09
2E+09
1E+09
0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
Coal - Exisiting Supply
Coal - Eleventh Plan
Hydro - Existing Supply
Hydro - Eleventh Plan
Natural Gas - Existing Supply
Natural Gas - Eleventh Plan
Nuclear - Existing Supply
Nuclear - Eleventh Plan
Total Demand
Scenarios for 4 Carbon Budgets
USA
India
Total Budget Budget for
Total Budget Budget for
(GtC) Power
(GtC) Power
2010-2050
Sector (GtC) 2010-2050
Sector (GtC)
Scenario - I: No restrictions
on emissions for India and
USA between 2010 and 2035
Scenario -II: Equitable
Allocation of Carbon Space
within the global budget
Scenario-III: Annex-I reduce
emissions according to their
Copenhagen Pledges, NonAnnex-I have to bridge the
gap
Scenario - IV: Budget for
USA proposed by National
Academy of Sciences, USA;
Highly curtailed Budget for
Non-Annex-I
--
--
--
--
18
6
68
24
35
12
30
11
54
19
21
7
Coal
Hydro
Diesel
Gas
Nuclear
Wind
SHP
Biomass
CSP
SolarPV
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Electricity Generated (kWh)
Scenario –I for India
1E+13
9E+12
8E+12
7E+12
6E+12
5E+12
4E+12
3E+12
2E+12
1E+12
0
Coal
Hydro
Diesel
Gas
Nuclear
Wind
SHP
Biomass
CSP
SolarPV
0
Coal
Hydro
Diesel
Gas
Nuclear
Wind
SHP
Biomass
CSP
SolarPV
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
CSP
2027
Biomass
2026
2025
4E+12
2024
5E+12
SHP
2023
6E+12
Wind
2022
7E+12
2021
8E+12
Nuclear
2020
8E+12
Gas
2019
9E+12
Diesel
2018
SolarPV
Hydro
2017
Coal
2016
0
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
0
2015
1E+12
2014
1E+12
2014
2E+12
2013
3E+12
2013
4E+12
2012
7E+12
2012
8E+12
2011
8E+12
2011
9E+12
2010
2009
5E+12
Electricity Generated (kWh)
9E+12
2010
2009
7E+12
Electricity Generated (kWh)
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
Electricity Generated (kWh)
6E+12
2035
2034
2033
2032
2031
2030
2029
2028
CSP
2027
Biomass
2026
2025
2024
SHP
2023
Wind
2022
2021
Nuclear
2020
2019
Gas
2018
Diesel
2017
2016
Hydro
2015
Coal
2014
2013
1E+13
2012
2011
2010
2009
Electricity Generated (kWh)
1E+13
1E+13
7E+12
6E+12
5E+12
4E+12
3E+12
2E+12
1E+13
SolarPV
9E+12
6E+12
5E+12
4E+12
3E+12
3E+12
2E+12
2E+12
1E+12
1E+12
0
Impacts on Cost of Electricity
India
Carbon Budget for the
Power Sector (35% of
total between 20102035) [GtC]
Cost of Energy in
2035 ($/kWh) -@
PPP
Cost of
Energy in
2035 ($/kWh)
- @ Rs.45/$
Scenario - I
--
0.509
0.181
Scenario -II
24
0.668
0.237
Scenario-III
11
0.978
0.348
Scenario - IV
7
1.063
0.378
Financial Burden on India vs. USA
India (@ Market
Prices)
Scenario – I
Scenario –II
Scenario-III
Scenario – IV
India (@ PPP)
Scenario - I
Scenario -II
Scenario-III
Scenario - IV
Total Cost of Electricity
Generation between (20102035) [Trillion US$]
Total Cost of Generation
between (2010-2035) [Trillion
USD]
13
16
28
33
Total Cost of Generation
between (2010-2035) [Trillion
USD]
38
46
79
92
Additional Burden As
Compared to Scenario-I
Additional Burden As
Compared to Scenario-I
-3
15
20
Additional Burden As
Compared to Scenario-I
-8
41
54
How much Energy do we actually need?
• projections such as these usually account for
energy efficiencies, some demand management
• but in a sense, even if these are not BAU in
energy terms, they are possibly BAU in terms of
development pathways and paradigms
• low-carbon development and tackling climate
change in a sustained and sustainable manner
will call for radical shifts in the things we do, the
way we do things, in lifestyles --- with serious
impact on energy use
Reducing Energy Requirement
700 Mtoe
reduction possible
 power generation
capacity could be
reduced by 128
GW ( 2001 cap.)

“National Energy Map for India:
technology vision 2030”: TERI &
Office of PSA, Govt of India, 2007




improve end-use efficiencies (300 Mtoe by 2031)
advanced coal, gas based generation tech’s. (122Mtoe)
increase renewables, nuclear (72 Mtoe)
increase efficiencies in transport (190 Mtoe)
Energy Efficiencies in Transport
“National Energy Map for India:
technology vision 2030”: TERI &
Office of PSA, Govt of India, 2007
• energy use projected
to increase >10
times to 460 Mtoe
by 2031
• most reduction
through normal tech.
upgradation
• road-to-rail modal
shift for freight and
passenger
• private to public
transport shift
Evolving Mexico offer!
Power Generation Energy Mix Projections 2035 – High Coal Scenario
Coal
N Gas Diesel
Nuc.
Hyd.
Ren.
Total
Total Energy Supplied
(%)
66%
12%
2%
3%
11%
6%
100%
Total Energy Supplied
(billion kWh)
2006
365
61
91
334
182
3040
Ave. Cap. Factors
(Assumed)
70%
0.7
0.16
0.7
0.38
0.26
Total Inst. Cap. (GW)
327
59
43
15
100
80
625
Capital Cost 2010-35 ‘l
for add’l Cap. no
decomm) (Rs. Cr.)
485
78
63
31
176
123
956
Power Generation Energy Mix Projections 2035 –
Low Coal, High Renewables, Low Nuclear Scenario
Coal
N Gas Diesel
Nuc.
Hyd.
Ren.
Total
Total Energy Supplied
(%)
45%
15%
2%
3%
14%
21%
100%
Total Energy Supplied
(billion kWh)
1368
456
61
91
426
638
3040
Ave. Cap. Factors
(Assumed)
70%
0.7
0.16
0.7
0.38
0.26
Total Inst. Cap. (GW)
223
74
43
15
128
280
764
Capital Cost 2010-35 ‘l
for add’l Cap. no
decomm) (Rs. Cr.)
289
102
63
31
234
445
1163
Power Generation Energy Mix Projections 2035 –
Low Coal, High Renewables, Medium Nuclear Scenario
Coal
N Gas Diesel
Nuc.
Hyd.
Ren.
Total
Total Energy Supplied
(%)
45%
14%
2%
7%
13%
19%
100%
Total Energy Supplied
(billion kWh)
1368
426
61
213
395
578
3040
Ave. Cap. Factors
(Assumed)
70%
0.7
0.16
0.7
0.38
0.26
Total Inst. Cap. (GW)
223
69
43
35
119
254
743
Capital Cost 2010-35 ‘l
for add’l Cap. no
decomm) (Rs. Cr.)
289
94
63
78
215
405
1144
Energy target in Low Carbon Pathway
• if India takes on energy/emissions reduction as part of
an equitable global deal…
• ---and adopts low-C development pathways
Dream Projections for 2035
(with improvements in conversion efficiency)
2010
2035
Population (in billions)
1.15
1.52
Primary Energy (EJ)
28.4
~87
Primary Energy per capita (GJ)
24.7
~57
Electricity Use (in billion units)
811
3040
Electricity Use per capita (units)
705
2000
• reduce
coal use from 60-66% to 40%?
Towards a Low Carbon Pathway
• promote domestic energy equity as specific goal not
just as “trickle down” supposition
• demand: “electricity for all” and “equitable access to
modern cooking energy”
• so some sectors of economy and sections of society
consume less, so others can get more
• address urbanization: rapid urbanization is much
spoken about, but why is it valorized? Some data
suggests 40% more emissions!
• 50% rural pop. even in 2050!! Should we not build on
this?
• new production-distribution patterns
Thank you