Transcript European Universities in a Changing World

European universities
in a changing world
Prof. Dr. Dirk Van Damme
Centre for Educational
Research and Innovation
OECD/EDU – CERI
Overview
• The context for expansion and innovation
– Economical (and the impact of the crisis)
– Demographic
– Social
• Trends and challenges
– Access, equity and success
– Quality, ranking and diversification
– Internationalisation and globalisation
• Change and innovation
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
2
The economic context
• The knowledge economy will need more highskilled people with better and newer skills
– There are more jobs expected asking for highlevel skills than there are higher education
graduates, so there still is a need for expansion of
participation and attainment
– If countries want to overcome the economic crisis
and to remain competitive in the future, they will
have to invest in human (and social) capital
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
3
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
4
The economic context
• The current economic crisis will result in long-lasting
high unemployment rates, especially among young
people
– Rather favourable labour market conditions at onset of
the crisis
– OECD UNR rose to 7.3% in February 2009: 9m more
unemployed than 1 year earlier
– Unemployment expected to rise to 10.1% in late 2010:
nearly 30 million more jobless persons than in 2007
– Significant deterioration of youth unemployment rate
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
5
Growth will collapse in 2009 and
stagnate in 2010
Average
1996-2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2008
q4
2009
q4
2010
q4
Per cent
Real GDP growth1
2.7
3.1
2.7
0.9
-4.3
United States
3.2
2.8
2.0
1.1
Euro area
2.1
3.0
2.6
0.7
1.1
2.0
2.4
6.6
6.0
-2.2
World real trade growth
World real GDP growth5
Japan
Unemployment rate3
Fiscal balance
4
-0.1
-1.5
-3.4
1.1
-4.0
0.0
-0.8
-3.5
1.1
-4.1
-0.3
-1.4
-3.5
0.8
-0.6
-6.6
-0.5
-4.3
-4.4
0.4
5.6
6.0
8.4
9.9
6.5
9.3
10.1
-1.3
-1.4
-3.0
-7.2
-8.7
7.0
9.5
6.9
2.5
-13.2
1.5
3.4
4.3
4.1
2.2
-2.7
1.2
Memorandum Items
1. Year-on-year increase; last three columns show the increase over a year earlier.
2. Per cent of potential GDP. Estimates of potential have not been revised and therefore do not incorporate a
possible reduction in supply implied by the downturn.
3. Per cent of labour force.
4. Per cent of GDP.
5. OECD countries plus Brazil, Russia, India and China only, representing 82% of world GDP at 2000
purchasing power parities.
Source: OECD.
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
6
UR in Q1 2009
Deteriorating youth unemployment rate
35
ESP
30
25
SWE
ITA
GRC
20
HUN
SVK
POL
BEL
PRT
FIN
FRA
GBR
15
IRL
TUR
LUX
USA
CAN
NZL
10
DEU
KOR AUS
MEX
CZE
AUT
JPN
NOR
DNK
OECD average
NLD
5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
% points difference Q1 2009-Q1 2008
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
7
The economic context
• But:
– Unemployment may provide strong incentives to
upgrading skills
– Opportunity costs are decreasing
– But social policies in higher education and wellperforming student support systems will be
necessary to accommodate this
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
8
The economic context
• The 21st century economy will need not only
more skills but also new skills
– ‘21st century skills’, ‘Skills for innovation’, ‘soft
skills’
– Such as: creativity, entrepreneurship, critical
thinking, curiosity, team-work, leadership,
problem-solving
– Whether they are really ‘new’ can be questioned,
but they certainly should have a stronger place in
the curriculum
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
9
The economic context
• Success of high-skills economies not only
depends on production of skilled people, but also
on skills utilisation
– Low use of high skills (“over-schooling” or
“under-utilisation”?) in some countries
– Skills mismatches
– Can higher education also help societies to
become more innovative and oriented towards
better utilisation of high skills?
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
10
Source: Lisbon Council, 2006
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
11
The demographic context
• In OECD countries (situation completely
different in other parts of the world)
– Falling birth rates and higher life expectancy
result in ‘greying’ populations
– Higher ‘old age dependency ratio’
• Will force us
– To utilize talents and competences in older
populations and to keep them productive
– To prepare young people for life long learning
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
12
The demographic context
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
13
The demographic context
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
14
The demographic context
• Also, more people on the move result in more
diverse populations
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
15
The social context
• Persisting inequality of opportunity in higher ed,
but continuing expansion improves equity
• Higher education will probably remain engine of
meritocracy and social mobility for
disadvantaged groups
– Students from ethnic minorities and migrants
– ‘Reservoirs’ of talents in underrepresented
sectors of population
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
16
Source: Education at a Glance 2008
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
17
Source: CERI/OECD, 2008
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
18
The social context
• Changing value systems will further increase
(and modify) the demand for higher learning,
but also the way learners will want to learn
– More secular and more oriented to selfexpression
– Providing more opportunities for self-directed
learning
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
19
The social context
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
20
Access, equity and success
• Higher education systems will continue to grow
and expand
– Higher education has been successful in
responding to massification and contributed to
enormous growth of higher education attainment
– Current growth rates can and will probably
continue in most countries
– In some countries a very impressive growth is
realised
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
21
Scenario 1 = Status-quo
Scenario 2 = Trend
Source: CERI/OECD, 2008
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
22
Access, equity and success
• But we need active access policies, in order
– To increase participation of underrepresented
groups, not only because of the economic benefit
of tapping their talents, but also because of social
cohesion
– To diversify participation, also to older learners in
the perspective of lifelong learning
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
23
Access, equity and success
• But access and participation is not enough
– Efficiency of teaching and learning arrangements
can and should be improved
– Success rates of disadvantaged students should be
increased by active policies of support and
assistance
– A ‘pedagogy of success’ instead of a ‘pedagogy of
failure’
• Selection may have been appropriate in educational
systems aimed at producing relatively small elites,
but is much less so in societies that need to develop
all talents
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
24
Quality, excellence and ranking
• Quality of higher education has improved a lot,
supported by internal and external quality
assurance arrangements
– In the context of the Bologna process QA serves
to uphold the recognition of degrees
– Issue of supportability
• But over the recent years the focus has shifted
– To a strong preoccupation with the holy grail of
‘excellence’, the ‘reputation race’, a focus on
rankings and a desire to belong to the top-100 of
global rankings
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
25
Quality, excellence and ranking
• A debate is needed on diversification of
institutions and their missions
– No proliferation of top-research
– Accessible, high-level education is needed for
high numbers of students
– Differentiation of academic and vocational
missions
– Cf. European ‘mapping’ and ‘diversification’
projects, supported in Leuven Communiqué 2009
– Cf. diversified, multidimensional rankings
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
26
Internationalisation
• Expansion of international students
• Some European countries are increasing their
share, but many others lag behind
• Attractiveness of continental European HE has
not improved drastically
– English-speaking countries remain favourite
study destinations
• Crucial importance of language
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
27
Source: Education at a Glance, 2008
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
28
Globalisation
• Worldwide convergence and integration
– Integrated global system of scientific research
– Increasing mobility of students, researchers,
teaching staff and institutional leaders
• Emerging market of academics and researchers
– Technology-driven expansion of new delivery
modes in teaching and learning
– International labour market of graduates
• Globalising organisation of professions
• Migration of high-skilled labour is to increase
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
29
Change and innovation
• In order to address these challenges ‘more of the
same’ will not suffice; change and innovation are
needed
• “The longevity of the university is not a result of
never changing – but rather a credit to its
ability to evolve, adapt, and change over time”
(Clark Kerr)
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
30
Change and innovation
• In struggling to cope with massification higher
education institutions have adapted to a mode of
operation characterized by standardisation
– Thus far also the Bologna Process has been
focused on convergence, even harmonisation; the
next phase 2010-2020 will focus much more at
diversification
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
31
Change and innovation
• But now we need more diversification to
successfully meet the demands of a
differentiated reality
– Diversification of the institutional landscape
– Diversification of teaching & learning
arrangements for a more heterogeneous student
population
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
32
Change and innovation
• Critical issue 1
– Those countries / institutions will be successful
which will be able to diversify provision and offer
higher added value
• Expansion: more learners
• Efficiency: more successful learning
• Equity and Diversity: diverse and equitable answers
to diversified demands
– Increasingly competing market
– Technological innovation is part of the answer
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
33
Change and innovation
• Critical issue 2:
– Will HEI’s be able to sustain their role and
position as dominant producers of knowledge,
skills and qualifications?
– Higher education institutions exist because they
provide the institutional arrangements for
effective and powerful learning environments
– But increasing number of competitors
• More effective alternative providers?
• Direct skills assessment
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
34
Concluding
• Once again universities will have to show their
capacity for change in an increasingly
demanding and competitive environment
– Institutional will and capacity for change will be
crucial
• Universities cannot face this on their own, but
have to engage in various kinds of networking
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
35
www.oecd.org/edu/ceri
THANK YOU !
12 June 2009
Santander Group GA Cluj
36