Transcript THE RIGHT TO A JOB, THE RIGHT TYPES OF PROJECTS

El impacto de la crisis económica mundial:
Una perspectiva de género
Rania Antonopoulos
Quito, 26-27 Noviembre 2009
Foro Internacional “LA CRISIS MUNDIAL Y ECUADOR: CARACTERISTICAS, CONSECUENCIAS,
OPORTUNIDADES Y DIMENSIONES DE GÉNERO”; MINISTERIO DE FINANZAS, UNIFEM, CIGENERO,FLACSO AC DEMOCRACIA, ILDIS
The role of Markets revisited
• Challenge: Sub-prime mortgage crisis leads
to turmoil in financial markets…
• Challenge: Overall demand is insufficient to
provide jobs and hire those who need
and wish to work
• Challenge: Poverty, inequality, discrimination,
precarious work conditions, low wages
The role of Government revisited
Economic and Social outcomes of Laissez faire,
and small government prove uneven and often
times disappointing
• In financial markets it can ameliorate
instability and fragility:
- Bailout… (who/how???)
- But also different rules and regulations
are needed (what are the new rules???)
These are not simply technical issues
A framework to understand the crisis
from a gender perspective
Paid
formal
Financial
sector
Market Production
sector
Government Sector
Household production sector, plus Care,
Reproduction and fulfillment of basic needs of people
Paid
informal
Unpaid
Work
A framework to understand
Gender dimension of the Crisis
Neglect of domestic demand,
reliance on exports, commodity
chain production
Washington
Consensus, Inflation
targeting
Deficits, IMF, Social
spending???
Financial market Liberalization
Financial
sector
Functional Distribution
of Income ?
Market Production
sector
Government sector
Household production,
Reproduction and fulfillment of basic needs of people
A Gender perspective on the crisis
Global and National
economic and institutional arrangements
in the making for many years
led to this financial crisis disregarding another
equally real crisis :
the non-fulfillment of
basic human needs and of a
pro-poor, gender equitable development agenda
Outline of the issues presented
1.
Asymmetric impacts of the Crisis
2.
A Gender analysis on the crisis
a) how are women impacted upon
differently than men?
b) what may be a gender equality
agenda at this juncture?
3.
The policy space created:the right to a job?
a)Can the “right to work” become part of
the Constitutional set of rights?
b) can it also promote gender-equality and
pro-poor growth?
• Asymmetry #1
Developing countries are hit by the current crisis
hard, for no fault of their own
Asymmetry #2
Not all governments have the capacity to engage in
expansionary policy and fiscal stimulus packages
• Asymmetry #3
Social impacts are uneven: People living in poverty
have little to cushion them; As poor women and men
occupy different social and economic positions, their
response to the crisis and their suffering from it
should not be treated as identical
Asymmetry #1
Developing countries are hit
hard by the current crisis, and
for no fault of their own
– GDP growth
– Trade flows
– Remittances
Declining GDP per capita
De-coupling?
Source: top graph Jomo K, UN-DESA (July 13-14, 2009;GEM-IWG conference); bottom graph Jayati Ghosh (July 10,2009; GEM-IWG Workshop)
World Trade
(percentage change per year)
Top Recipients of Migrant remittances
Remittances in Mexico and other Latin American Countries($US)
Asymmetry #2
Not all governments have the
capacity to engage in
expansionary policy and fiscal
stimulus packages
Most vulnerable: high poverty and slow growth
External Indicators of Developing and Transition Economies
(with Population over 5 Million)
2003 to 2007
Current Account
Balance
Number
of
Countries
External Debt
% improvement
% of GDP 2003
% of
GDP
2006
% with
improvement
Foreign Exchange
Reserves,
excl. gold
% of
GDP
% of
% with
2003 GDP 2007 improvement
Africa
31
45%
89.7
43.0
97%
12.8
18.1
78%
Central and
Eastern
Europe
8
38%
55.4
57.3
57%
21.0
23.2
63%
CIS
8
25%
56.1
44.5
88%
12.9
21.3
100%
Latin
America and
the Caribbean
16
38%
63.7
37.6
100%
11.7
14.8
69%
Middle East,
incl. Egypt
7
43%
54.0
28.6
100%
41.1
50.1
40%
Asia, incl.
NICs
20
45%
52.5
36.9
100%
27.2
32.7
69%
• Asymmetry#3
Social Impacts are uneven
– People living in poverty have little
to cushion them
– Women and men respond
differently to the crisis
Social impacts
• ILO: 200 m. more working poor
• ILO: Unemployment to rise by 51m
• World Bank: 53 million more people in poverty
This is on top of the 130-155 million people
pushed into poverty in 2008 because of
soaring food and fuel prices
• Social spending is at risk (infant and maternal
mortality)
– decline in state revenues
– ODA volatility and financing for MDGs
• Rising social unrest
• Crisis is expected to lead to greatest security risks
Social Impacts are uneven
•
Malnourishment and school withdrawal among poor
children: in most countries, girls suffer more
•
Women increase their Supply of Labour because they accept
to work under very informal conditions
•
Men suffer from depression, low self-esteem and will
experience in some cases a decrease in life expectancy
•
When tax revenues decline, government social spending is the
first victim. More unpaid work by women who end up
working longer (unpaid) hours to close the gaps plus maternal
mortality will be further on the rise
What have we learned from
past crises?
1. Investment rates collapse and savings rates rise (i.e.,
The Asian crisis of 1997-98)
countercyclical policies are badly needed (IMF?WB?)
2. Even when economic growth resumes, employment
levels take a very long time to recover
public service job creation policies are badly needed
Philippines: GDP growth,savings and investment rates
40.0
35.0
Malaysia: GDP growth, savings and investment rates
7.0
50.0
6.0
45.0
5.0
30.0
12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
40.0
4.0
4.0
25.0
35.0
2.0
30.0
0.0
3.0
2.0
20.0
1.0
15.0
0.0
Savings rate
Investment rate
-4.0
-6.0
20.0
-8.0
15.0
-10.0
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
-1.0
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
10.0
-2.0
25.0
Savings rate
GDP growth rate
GDP growth rate
Indonesia GDP growth, savings and investment rates
South Korea: GDP growth, savings and investment rates
60.0
Investment rate
12.0
35.0
15.0
10.0
50.0
8.0
10.0
30.0
6.0
40.0
5.0
4.0
30.0
25.0
2.0
0.0
20.0
0.0
20.0
-2.0
-5.0
-4.0
10.0
-6.0
-10.0
-8.0
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
0.0
15.0
Savings rate
Investment rate
10.0
-15.0
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
GDP growth rate
Jayati Ghosh, GEM-IWG Workshop, Day 10, Session II, July 10, 2009, The Levy Economics Institute
Savings rate
Investment rate
GDP growth rate
What else do we know from past
experiences?
•The Asian financial crisis shows that the massive
unemployment impacts --doubled rates within a
year of the crisis-- persisted for a long time
(LABORSTA, ILO)
•Indonesia has never recovered
•Thailand and the Philippines have taken nearly a
decade to decrease unemployment rates to the
pre-crisis levels
2. A Gender perspective on the crisis (continued)
a) how are women impacted upon
differently than men?
b) what may be a gender equality
agenda at this juncture?
Total Workload – Earnings Gap: Selected Developing Countries
60
50
40
percentage
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
Percentage Difference Between Women's Total Workload Men's Total
Workload
Percentage Difference Between Women's Earnings and Men's Earnings
What Is Unpaid Work?
• Gaining access to basic inputs for cooking,
cleaning, sanitation, food processing etc:
collecting water, wood etc
• Providing Care work: children, elderly,
chronically ill etc;Volunteer work;Subsistence
Production, family businesses
Where? at home and in the public domain
HOUSEHOLDS in the Economy:
The conventional view
Business Sector
Formal work
some family labor
Banks
Formal work
Public Sector
Formal Work
Household Sector
Supplies labor 
Receives income
Saves and Consumes
Original graphic design of this and the following slide is from Eugenia Gomez Luna, "Unpaid work and the System of National Accounts", Session 9,
Conference on “Unpaid Work: gender, poverty and the MDG’s,” October3-4, 2005, http://www.levy.org/undp-levy-conference/program_documents.asp
…a different (Macro) perspective
Business Sector
Formal Labor
Informal Labor
Upaid work
Volunteer work
Public Sector
Formal Labor
NGO Sector
Informal Labor
Formal
Upaid work
Volunteer
Volunteer work
Household Sector
Formal work
Informal work
Unpaid work
Deterioration of
Human capabilities?
Women and Employment Guarantee
Programs
Issue#1:
Issue#2:
Issue#3:
Supply of labor issues ( constraints by
unpaid work; availability of crèche etc)
types of projects women want Participation in design of projects
(unpaid work, cooperatives, skill enhancement)
evaluation criteria must include
reduction of drudgery and unpaid work
Time Spent on Nonmarket Activities
(Selected Developing Economies)
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
India
Mauritius
South Africa
Female
Benin
Male
Mongolia
Madagascar
Gender paths of transmission of the crisis
• Micro credit and Micro-finance institutions
• Paid work in export sectors: textiles,
consignment, agriculture and tourism
• Informal work and vulnerable workers
• Unpaid work and invisible vulnerabilities
• Remittances and migration
Micro-finance institutions
REMITTANCES and Migration
Over 3,330 MFIs reached 133
million clients in 2006
Tajikistan(45.5% of GDP),
Moldova (35% of GDP)
93 million of the clients were
among the poorest when they
took their first loan, 85% women
Uganda, Zimbabwe and
Tajikistan(drop of 50%)
EXPORTS High-end agricultural
EXPORTS High-end agricultural
Malaysia -
garments
78% female
Uganda -
cut flowers
85% female
Bangladesh-
garments
85% female
Ecuador-
cut flowers
70% female
Philippines-
electronics
53% female
Thailand
fruits
80% female
The crisis?
We must bear in mind that for many people,
in many countries this crisis comes to sit on
top of other crises
•
•
•
•
•
poverty
income inequality
diminishing space for livelihoods
unemployment
Basic needs remain unfulfilled,including the right to
a job
Changes in employment to output growth ratio
1.2
1.0
19951999
20002005
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Central and
Developed
Eastern Europe Countries and EU
(non-EU) & CIS
South Asia
Latin America and
the Caribbean
Sub-Saharan
Africa
Middle East and
North Africa
3. The policy space created:
the right to a job?
a) Can the “right to work” become part of
the Constitutional set of rights?
b) Can it also promote gender-equality
and pro-poor growth?
Why an EGS,ELR,PWP?
The right to work promotes
• Dignity, inclusion and expanded democracy
(rights based approach to economics and to life)
• Direct and indirect income creation
• Direct and indirect job creation
• RESOURSE MOBILIZATION??? LABOUR!!!!
• But community development promoting work!!!
that also reduces unpaid work
Why an EGS,ELR,PWP?
The right to work promotes (continued)
• Public and Private Asset creation
• Pro-poor growth
• Change our mentality about growth as the single
developmental objective and replace it with propoor growth, employment creation, social
inclusion, improvement in the life of all people
Typology of Direct Job Creation
Government Programs
• The Right to Work: INDIA NREGA since 2006
• Recognition of Unemployment during prosperity: South
Africa since 2005, Sweden and Australia (1940’s-70’s)
• ILO Employment Intensive Infrastructure(since 70’s in
many African countries)
• Emergency Programmes:Indonesia, Korea, Argentina
post 2001 financial crisis, USA (New Deal and now)
•
Social Funds:Bolivia (1986), Chile (1975-1987), Peru (1991) ????
Employment Guarantee Programs
-What kinds of jobs and for what types of “projects”?
-Who is eligible? For how long?
-What is the “cost” of such projects and what are the
“benefits”? Financing? Are they inflationary?
-Institutional arrangements? Technical expertise?
Employment Guarantee Programs
• Expanded Public Works Programmes
[infrastructure, social sector, environment, economic]
SOUTH AFRICA
• National Rural Employment Guarantee Act
[Right to Information Act- Ongoing Social Audits ]
INDIA
Unemployment Rate - African, poor/ultra-poor
(strict definition)
Ex-homeland Poor
Ex-homeland Ultra-poor
Female
Rural com Poor
Male
Rural com Ultra-poor
Urban informal Poor
Urban informal Ultra-poor
Urban formal Poor
Urban formal Ultra-poor
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Time Spent on Unpaid Work -SA
Total Hours Spent on Unpaid Work
per Year by Household Type and Gender
Ex-homeland African
Rural Commercial White
Household Group
Rural Commercial Coloured/Asian
Female
Rural Commercial African
Male
Urban Informal African
Urban Formal White
Urban Formal Coloured/Asian
Total Hours Per Year
8,000,000,000
7,000,000,000
6,000,000,000
5,000,000,000
4,000,000,000
3,000,000,000
2,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
0
Urban Formal African
Rural Areas in India
Types of Community Projects
Rural roads and access roads
Rural land development
Flood control works
Water conservation and water harvesting
Irrigation facilities to land owned by poor people and to
beneficiaries of land reforms
Reactivation of traditional water harvesting and
distribution systems
EPWP
Types of Community Projects
Road construction and maintenance
Water delivery
Ecological latrines
Early childhood development (unpaid work)
Home and community based care (unpaid work)
Environmental water conservation
Prevention of fires
EPWP: Social Sector
• Social Sector consists of
– ECD/Education and
– HCBC/Health
• High female intensity (60 and 69% respectively)
 addresses female unemployment in the short run
and builds skills in the long-term
•
Data source: Friedman, Irwin, Bhengu, L., Mothibe, N., Reynolds, N., and Mafuleka, A., (2007)
Scaling up the EPWP,Health Systems Trust, November, Volume 1-4. Study commissioned by
Development Bank of South Africa and EPWP.
Background on the Study
• Type of Intervention : scaling up Early Childhood
Development and Home/Community Based Care
• The right to work , the right types of projects?
unpaid work and gender issues
• Research project on micro-macro impact of scaling up
public job creation
• South Africa Study: Kijong Kim (Levy Institute), EPWP
interviews , Irwin Friedman (Health Trust Fund) and
PROVIDE team (Dept. of Agriculture)
EPWP: Social Sector
The SAM for South Africa
• Based on PROVIDE, Dept. of Agriculture
• Factors disaggregated
by skill and gender
• 26 sectors
• 20 types of hhs
• 7 exogenous sectors
1
2
3
4
5
E
X
O
G
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
SALTAX
INDTAX
DIRTAX
GOVT
KAP
DSTOC
ROW
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
FGOS
FMaleUS
FMaleSk
FFemUS
FFemSk
HUF_Af1_3
HUF_Af4
HUF_Af5
HUF_Co1_3
HUF_Co4
HUF_Co5
HUF_Wh
HUI_Af1_3
HUI_Af4
HUI_Af5
HRF_Af1_3
HRF_Af4
HRF_Af5
HRF_Co1_3
HRF_Co4
HRF_Co5
HRF_Wh
HRI_Af1_3
HRI_Af4
HRI_Af5
A
C
T
I
V
I
T
I
E
S
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Cagric
Cmining
Cfood
Ctext
Cpaper
Cpetro
Cnonmet
Cmetals
Cmachin
Ccomeq
Ctrnseq
Comanuf
Celec
Cwater
Cbuild
Cconstr
Ctradacc
Ctrnscom
Cfinserv
Cbusserv
Ceduc
Cogovserv
Chealth
Csocial
Coserv
Cdomserv
Types of Households
1 HUF_Af1_3
2 HUF_Af4
3 HUF_Af5
4 HUF_Co1_3
5 HUF_Co4
6 HUF_Co5
7 HUF_Wh
8 HUI_Af1_3
9 HUI_Af4
10 HUI_Af5
11 HRF_Af1_3
12 HRF_Af4
13 HRF_Af5
14 HRF_Co1_3
15 HRF_Co4
16 HRF_Co5
17 HRF_Wh
18 HRI_Af1_3
19 HRI_Af4
20 HRI_Af5
Urban Formal African Non-Poor
Urban Formal African Poor
Urban Formal African Ultra Poor
Urban Formal Colored Non-Poor
Urban Formal Colored Poor
Urban Formal Colored Ultra Poor
Urban Formal White Non-Poor
Urban Informal African Non-Poor
Urban Informal African Poor
Urban Informal African Ultra Poor
Rural Commercial African Non-Poor
Rural Commercial African Poor
Rural Commercial African Ultra Poor
Rural Commercial Colored Non-Poor
Rural Commercial Colored Poor
Rural Commercial Colored Ultra Poor
Rural Commercial White Non-Poor
Ex-homeland African Non-Poor
Ex-homeland African Poor
Ex-homeland African Ultra Poor
Policy Simulations
• All Existing Types of Projects have the potential to reduce
unpaid work and facilitate creation and access to basic services
EPWP Working for Water; environment sector (Tsitsikamma
2004/05)
EPWP Social Sector (Health Trust Fund)
EPWP Infrastructure;Access roads and Water Reticulation (SCIP
Engineering Group)
• Options for Job allocation scheme
Jefes variation by population weights (part time year around)
NREGA scheme (100 days)
Poverty weights-normalized by population
Unemployment weights normalized by poverty incidence
• Target population
Poor and ultra poor households comprising (50% of the
unemployed); “unskilled” wages according to programme
stipulations and skilled according to SAM
Impact of EPWP Injection
•
•
•
•
•
•
ex-ante evaluation of policy scenarios
Direct and indirect job creation (skill level/gender/sector)
Direct and indirect income received by type of hh
Depth of poverty reduction
GDP growth? Pro-poor growth?Sectoral growth?
Fiscal space expansion?
Impact of new assets and service delivery for
participants and community
Simulation Results
9 billion Rand, full time-year around jobs
• Direct job creation (1,2million)
• Indirect job creation: for every 3 EPWP, another
one in the economy is created
• GDP (+1.7%), tax expansion (1/3 recovered)
• Poverty reduction: pro-poor growth!
Costs and Benefits
• Social inclusion
• Income-Poverty reduction? This depends on the
length and duration of jobs, wages and targeting
method
• Asset poverty reduction!!!
• Service delivery!!!
• Gender equality in unpaid and paid work
• Pro-poor development
• Monetary cost: 1% of GDP ….?3% of GDP?
• Opportunity cost of not mobilizing domestic
resources?
www.economistsforfullemployment.org
Thank you
The International Working Group on Gender, Macroeconomics and
International Economics
www.genderandmacro.org
www.economistsforfullemployment.org
member institutions...
we are...
a group of economists working towards
building a global informal network of
academics, policy advisors, institutions,
advocates and members of government,
committed to the realization of the right
to work…
we are committed to...
joining forces with all who foster public dialogue
and seek to promote employment guarantee
around the world. Together, we can provide
coherent, viable policy alternatives that lead to
inclusive and just outcomes for all…