Transcript CP1 - United Nations Statistics Division

CENTRAL STATISTICS ORGANIZATION
(CSO)
OF AFGHANISTAN`
Afghanistan
Status of implementation the
1993SNA
Presenting by : Abdul Ghaias
Zahir
Contents
 Introduction
 Coverage
 Economical information
 Framework
 Periodicity
 Compilation approaches
 Sources, methods, and compilation issues of National Accounts (Sectors)
 Challenges Ahead
Introduction
The GDP data provides an overview of the Afghanistan’s
economy and examines the composition of economic activates,
and of the interaction between the different economic entities.
Afghanistan’s gross domestic product (GDP) is a basic
measure of its economic performance.
The United Nations System of National Accounts 1993 (SNA
1993) guidelines have been used for the compilation.
Coverage
Afghanistan’s economical activities are classified in to three following
sectors:
1. Agriculture: which include, Cereals and others, Fruits and Livestock.
2. Industry: which include, Mining and quarrying, Manufacturing,
Electricity, gas and water and Construction.
3. Services: which include, Wholesale & retail trade, restaurants &
hotels, Transport, storage and communication, Finance, insurance, real
estate and business, Ownership of dwellings, Community, social and
personal services, Government services and Other services.
Economical Information
 GDP in US$ (Mn)
18952
 Population Growth
2.03
 GDP/Capita (US$)
715
 GDP Growth Rate
9.5
 Inflation Rate
8.4
 Life expectancy
44
 Infant Mortality 111/1000 live births
 Maternal mortality Rate
 Afg/US$
1600/100000 live births
45.70
‫درجه رشد تولید ناخالص داخلی ‪GDP Growth rate‬‬
‫‪35‬‬
‫‪28.6‬‬
‫‪30‬‬
‫‪20‬‬
‫‪17.2‬‬
‫‪16.1‬‬
‫‪15‬‬
‫‪9.5‬‬
‫‪9.2‬‬
‫‪3.2‬‬
‫‪2.3‬‬
‫‪9.9‬‬
‫‪8.2‬‬
‫‪2.3‬‬
‫‪10‬‬
‫‪5‬‬
‫‪0‬‬
‫سال ‪year‬‬
‫‪ %‬فیصدی‬
‫‪25‬‬
GDP in US $ (Mn)
20000
18000
18952
16343
16000
14000
12871
US $
12000
10170
10000
8186
6633
8000
6000
10641
4523
4917
5619
4000
2000
0
2002/03
2003/04
2004/05
2005/06
year
2006/07 2007/08
2008/09
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
Framework
 Regular Activities:
.
 GDP by industrial origin
-Current price
- Constant prices
 GDP by Expenditure categories at (CP)
 Sectoral Composition of GDP
 Annual percentage change
 GDP implicit deflator – a measure of inflation

Other Activities
10
Periodicity
GDP estimates are compiled annually on the Solar year
basis ending March 20, e.g. for the year 1390 the covered
period is from 21 March 2011 to 20 March 2012.
The GDP estimates are published once a year in the
Afghanistan Statistical Yearbook.
Compilation Approaches
i.
PRODUCTION APPROACH
ii.
EXPENDITURE APPROACH
Agriculture
Agriculture is the most important sector in
the economy with more then 80% of
population actively involved in it. Due to the
high level of Subsistence farming in
Afghanistan.
Crops
Major crops:
Minor crops:
Intermediate
Consumption:
Rice, Wheat, barely , Sugarcane, Sugar beet Maize, etc.
Pulses, Vegetables, Fruits, Oil seeds, potatoes , etc.
Seeds, Fertilizer, Pesticides, Water, Transport
Charges, etc.
Sources:
Provincial Agriculture & MOA,WFP &FAO
(FAAM),
Gross Value
Added:
Value of output including by-products (minus)
Intermediate consumption
Livestock
Composition:
Cattle and their products
Poultry and their products
Intermediate
Consumption:
Roughages (green and dry), Concentrates (Grains,
Oilcakes), Grass & Grazing, salt, Medicines, etc.
Sources:
Livestock Ministry of Agriculture , FAO
WFP etc.
Gross Value
Added:
Value of output including by-products (minus)
Intermediate consumption
Fishing
Composition:
Fishing covers the catches of fish of all kinds. There is no
large—scale commercial fishing in Afghanistan.
Benchmark fishery data are based on CSO surveys.
Intermediate
Consumption:
Salt, Ice, Fuel & Lubricants, Medicines, Chemicals, etc. and
Auction Charges.
Sources:
Economic Statistics department, And CSO survey.
Gross Value
Added:
Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption
Forestry
Composition:
Intermediate
Consumption:
Forestry and logging includes: 1) logging,
2) charcoal, and 3) firewood
Seeds, plantation, fertilizer, etc.
Sources:
Ministry of Agriculture
Gross Value
Added:
Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption
Mining & Quarrying
Composition:
Intermediate
Consumption:
Sources:
Gross Value
Added:
Mining and quarrying cover the extracting and preparation for
further processing of solids such as coal, natural gas, salt,
sand, stone, gold, etc
Ratio of IC / GO
Ministry of Mine and Economics Statistics Departments.
Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption
Large-scale
manufacturing
Composition:
Intermediate
Consumption:
Sources:
Gross Value
Added:
Manufacturing in Afghanistan namely:
Food, beverages, and tobacco, Textile,
wood production, paper products ,etc.
Ratio of IC / GO and also N/A add hoc survey
Ministry of Mine and Economics Statistics
Departments.
Value of output (minus) Intermediate
consumption
Electricity, gas distribution & water
supply
Composition:
This group include the generation of hydro—power, and
the transmission, of electricity. The manufacture of gas
in gas works, and natural gas, and the production and
distribution of water all belong to this group.
Intermediate
Consumption:
Furnace Oil, Gas, Water, etc.
Sources:
The main source of data for this group is Ministry of
Industry.
Gross Value
Added:
The production approach (GO-IC) is used to get value
added.
Construction
Composition:
Sources:
Intermediate
Consumption:
Gross Value
Added:
Construction consists of 1) modern public (rehabilitation,
project in progress, and new projects) 2) modern private, 3)
traditional. It include constructing, altering, repairing,
buildings, houses, dams, highways, sewers, schools, hospitals,
communication and transport lines, irrigation system, etc
Administration report, ED of CSO and the in—house surveys. Data
for traditional Construction are derived based on population
number of household and cost of typical house in rural area.
Average 55% IC/GO ratio
Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption
Transport, storage &
communication
Composition:
Air transport, land Transport and services allied to
transport, including storage and warehousing, and
communication.
Sources:
Ministries of Transportation and communication CSO
Department of Economy and National Accounts survey.
Gross Value
Added:
On the basis of the production approach which is
GO-IC = VA.
Finance & insurance
Composition:
Sources:
Gross Value
Added:
Finance sector covers financial institutions, monetary
institutions, other financial institutions and financial
services. Monetary institutions include DAB, commercial
banks and other banks.
From Money Exchange Association, DAB, and CSO.
On the basis of the production approach which is
GO-IC = VA.
Wholesale & retail trade
Composition:
Sources:
Value Added:
All Agricultural, Industrial Produce: (Agri.40%, Ind.70%
marketed)
and Imports (50% of export and80%imports are for
wholesale & retail trade)
comes directly from the agricultural and industry
sectors
Total value of trade margins applied on the marketed
portions of Agriculture and Industrial Output as well
as Imports.
Ownership of dwellings
Coverage:
Housing Units (rented as well as self occupied)
and in urban and rural areas
Sources:
from the population, survey of average prices of
dwelling, their average economic life, and the rent
price index in the CPI
Value Added:
The value added is obtained by using GO-IC.
Community, social & private
services
This group includes religion, local NGOs, private
Composition:
education and medical, recreational and culture
services, consultants assistance, personal and
household services, and lawyers
Sources:
Administration reports and the in-house survey.
Gross Value
Added:
On the basis of the production approach which is
GO-IC = VA.
Sectoral Contribution of GDP
Agriculture
Industry
Services
26.74
21.39
48.27
Taxes on imtorts 3.59
Agriculture 26.74
Services 48.27
Industry 21.39
27
Gross fixed capital formation
Consists of additions to the fixed assets of the
economy. Fixed assets cover land
improvements ,plant, machinery and equipment
(durable goods) purchases; the construction of
roads and the like, including commercial and
industrial buildings, offices, schools, hospitals,
and private residential dwellings.
Expenditures approach
 Total final consumption expenditure is the sum of private
and government consumption.
 Government consumption data are drawn directly from the
national budget.
 Currently GDP by expenditure only at current price
compiled, by indirect method of carry over the GDP from
production side and making the private consumption or
(final consumption expenditure of household) as residual
including data discrepancies and change in stocks.
Challenges Ahead
 Lack of Capacity especially in view of implementation of Afghanistan National
Statistical Plan and SRF.
 Lack of physical and communication infrastructure especially in the provinces.
 Lack of statistical capacity in some ministries and departments to provide
administrative data.
 Multiplicity of data providers and their non-coordination with CSO although
required by the Statistical law.
 Lack of awareness about the importance of data at all levels.
 Lack of up to date topographic maps and satellite images

Poor Response.

Extrapolations and Estimations.

Lack of data.

Weakness and shortcoming of reporting system.

Insufficient basic detailed data, especially disaggregating

in to institutional level.

Data collection of informal activity especially in the provinces.