Transcript Chap32

Chapter 32
Federal Budgets
and Public Policy
© 2006 Thomson/South-Western
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Federal Budget Process
The federal budget is a plan for
government outlays and revenues for a
specified period, usually a year
Federal outlays include both
Government purchases
Transfer payments
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Exhibit 1: Defense’s Share of Federal Outlays
Declined Since 1960 and Redistribution Increased
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President’s Role in Budget Process
President’s budget process usually begins
a year before it is submitted to Congress
The congressional budget cycle begins in
late January once Congress gets The
Budget of the United States Government
from the president
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Congressional Role in the Budget Process
Once the president’s proposed budget gets to
Congress, budget committees in both the House
and the Senate rework until they agree on total
outlays, spending by major category, and expected
revenues
This agreement, called a budget resolution,
establishes a framework to guide spending and
revenue decisions
The fiscal year runs from October 1 of one year to
September 30 of the following year
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The Budget
The size and composition of the budget and the
difference between outlays and revenues
measure the budget’s fiscal impact
When outlays exceed revenues, the budget is in
deficit
Stimulates aggregate demand in the short run, but
reduces national saving that in the long run could
impede economic growth
When revenues exceed outlays, the budget is in
surplus
Dampens aggregate demand in the short run, but
enhances domestic saving that in the long run could
promote economic growth
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Problems with the Federal Budget Process
Continuing Resolutions instead of Budget
Decisions
Budgets typically run on continuing
resolutions: agreements to allow agencies to
spend at the rate of the previous year’s
budget
Overlapping Committee Authority:
requires the executive branch to defend
the same section of the president’s budget
before several committees in both House
and the Senate
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Problems with the Federal Budget Process
Lengthy budget process
Uncontrollable budget items
No separate capital budget
Overly detailed budget
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Possible Budget Reforms
The annual budget could be converted
into a two-year budget, or biennial
budget.
Simplify the budget document by
concentrating only on major groupings
and eliminating line items
Sort federal spending into an operating
budget and a capital budget
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Fiscal Impact of the Federal Budget
When government outlays—purchases
plus transfer payments—exceed
government revenue, the result is a
budget deficit
Deficit financing has been justified for
outlays that increase the economy’s
productivity— capital outlays for
investments
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Budget Philosophies and Deficits
Annually balanced budget: budget philosophy
prior to the Great Depression aimed at
matching annual revenues with outlays, except
during times of war
Cyclically balanced budget: budget philosophy
calling for budget deficits during recessions to
be financed by budget surpluses during
expansions
Functional finance: budget philosophy using
fiscal policy to achieve the economy’s potential
GDP, rather than balancing budgets either
annually or over the business cycle
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Exhibit 2: After Decades of Budget Deficits, Surpluses
Appeared from 1998 to 2001, But Deficits Are Back
Surplus
Deficit
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Why Have Deficits Persisted?
One widely accepted model of the public
sector assumes that elected officials try to
maximize their political support, including
votes and campaign contributions
Voters like public spending programs but
hate paying taxes, so spending programs
win support and taxes lose it
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Crowding Out
Crowding out: The displacement of
interest-sensitive private investment
that occurs when higher government
deficits drive up interest rates
 An
increase in the deficit or a decrease in the
surplus reduces the supply of national savings
 Higher interest rates crowd out some private
investment, thereby reducing the stimulating
effect of the government’s deficit
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Crowding In
Crowding in: The potential for
government spending to stimulate private
investment in an otherwise dead economy
 An
important determinant of investment is
business expectations and government
stimulus may improve expectations so firms
more willing to invest
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Budget Surplus
In the early 1990s, outlays started to
decline relative to GDP, while revenues
increased: deficit declined and, by 1998,
created a budget surplus
What turned a hefty deficit into a surplus,
and why has the surplus slipped lately?
Tax increases in the 1990s
Vigorous recovery during the 1990s
Slower growth in federal outlays
Reversal in 2001
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Exhibit 3: During the 1990s, Federal Outlays Declined
Relative to GDP and Revenues Increased, Turning
Deficits into Surpluses, But Not For Long
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Exhibit 4: Government Outlays as a Percentage of
GDP Declined Between 1994 and 2004 in Major
Economies Except Japan
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National Debt
The national debt is a stock variable
measuring the net accumulation of past
deficits, the total amount owed by the
federal government
Changes over time
U.S. debt levels compared to those in other
countries
Interest on the debt
Prospect of paying off the debt
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National Debt
Distinction between the gross debt and
the debt held by the public
Gross debt includes U.S. Treasury securities
purchased by various federal agencies: debt
owed to the government itself
Debt held by the public includes debt held
by households, firms, banks, and foreign
entities
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Exhibit 5: Federal Debt Held by the Public as Percent
of GDP Was Slightly Lower in 2004 Than in 1940
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Exhibit 6: Relative to GDP, U.S. Net Public Debt in
2004 Was About Average for Major Economies
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Interest on the National Debt
Because most federal securities are short term,
the national debt “turns over” rapidly
Nearly half the debt is refinanced every year –
debt service payments are quite sensitive to
movements in the interest rate
Interest payments peaked at 15.4% of outlays
in 1996 and have declined to only 6.7% of the
federal budget by 2004
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Exhibit 7: Interest Payments of Federal Debt Held by the
Public as a Percentage of Federal Outlays Peaked in 1996
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We Owe It To Ourselves
It is often argued that the debt is not a burden
to future generations because – although they
must service the debt, those same generations
receive the debt service payments
It’s true that if U.S. citizens forgo present
consumption to buy bonds, they or their heirs
will receive the interest payments – debt service
payments stay in the country
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Foreign Ownership of Debt
The “we owe it to ourselves” argument does not
apply to the portion of the national debt
purchased by foreigners
Foreigners who buy U.S. government bonds forgo
present consumption and are paid back in the
future
Reliance on foreigners increases the burden of the
debt on future generations because future debt
service payments no longer remain in the country
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Crowding Out and Capital Formation
Government borrowing can drive up interest
rates and crowd out some private investment
by making it more costly
The long-run effect of deficit spending depends
on how the government spends the borrowed
funds
 If
they are used in public investments there may be
no harmful effects on the economy’s long-run
productive capabilities
 If they go toward current consumption, less capital
formation will result
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Crowding Out and Capital Formation
With less investment today, there will be
a smaller endowment of capital
equipment and technology
Despite the large federal deficits of the
1980s and early 1990s, public investments
in capital declined
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