Transcript Moroccan agriculture

RuralStruc
Moroccan agriculture:
Constraints and new challenges
N.Akesbi, D.Benatya, N.El Aoufi
Dakar – M’bour, 12 April 2006
Plan
1. Situation
Moroccan agriculture and its constraints…
2. Reminder of agriculture policies
From the involvement of the State to its disengagement…
3. Questions and tomorrow’s stakes…
Risks and dangers of short-sighted liberalization
Moroccan agriculture:
Main characteristics
30 M inhabitants, almost 45% in the rural sector
SAU: 8.7 Mha, only 1 Mha irrigated and 3 Mha receive
more than 400 mm of water per year.
Still an agriculture largely «dual»
(«modern»/«traditional»), and «domestic»
15% of GDP and 40% of the active population
A more important and diversified production, but
unable to feed the population: dangerous food
dependency (I/X: -50%)
1. Situation: Moroccan agriculture and
its constraints
1.1. Deficiencies of a production still handicapped by the
climate constraints
1.2. Trade deficits and increasing food dependency
1.3. Dangerous degradation of natural resources
1.4. Human resources: poverty and analphabetism
1.5. Land tenure structures disadvantageous to modernization
1.6. Farming and productive systems still little intensive
1.7. A sector badly articulated with the rest of the economy
1.8. Insufficient financial resources and unequally distributed
1.1.Production deficiencies
GDP and Agriculture GDP:
Evolution of average growth rates by decades.
%
PIB et PIB Agricole: Evolution des taux
de croissance moyens par décennies
8
7
6
5
4
3
PIB
2
1
PIBA
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Evolution of Agriculture GDP per inhabitant
Evolution du PIB Agricole par habitant
Dh cst, 1980
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
2002
2000
1998
1996
1994
1992
1990
1988
1986
1984
1982
1980
1978
1976
1974
1972
1970
1968
1966
1964
1962
1960
0
Evolution of the cereal production per inhabitant
Evolution de la production céréalière par habitant
Kg
02
20
99
19
96
19
93
19
90
19
87
19
84
19
81
19
78
19
75
19
72
19
69
19
66
19
63
19
19
60
500
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Kg
Evolution de diverses productions par habitant
140
120
Betterave
100
80
60
40
Olives
20
0
Légumineuses
1961-65 1966-70 1971-75 1976-80 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-00 20001-03
Evolution des productions maraîchères
et agrumicoles par habitant
Kg
250
200
150
Maraîchage
100
Agrumes
50
0
1961-65 1966-70 1971-75 1976-80 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-00 20001-03
Evolution of animal productions per inhabitant
Evolution des productions animales par habitant
Kg-L
45
40
35
Lait
30
25
20
Viandes rouges
15
10
5
Viandes blanches
0
1961-65 1966-70 1971-75 1976-80 1981-85 1986-90 1991-95 1996-00 20001-03
qx/ha Evolution des rendements des céréales principales, 1931-2003
16
Blé tendre
14
12
10
8
Orge
6
Blé dur
4
2
03
0
100
20
96
-0
5
19
91
-9
0
19
86
-9
5
19
81
-8
0
19
76
-8
5
19
71
-7
0
19
66
-7
5
19
61
-6
5
19
51
-5
5
-4
19
41
19
19
31
/3
5
0
qx/ha
Evolution des rendements des légumineuses
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
196165
196670
197175
197680
198185
198690
199195
1996- 2000100
03
Forte dépendance du PIB des aléas de la production agricole
%
12
7
2
1981
1883
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
-3
-8
PIB agricole
PIB global
1997
1999
2001
2003
1.2. Trade
deficits…
Evolution of the reserve ratio in the agro-food balance
Evolution du taux de couverture
de la balance agroalimentaire
%
250
200
150
100
50
0
7
19
0
7
19
3
7
19
6
7
19
9
8
19
2
8
19
5
8
19
8
9
19
1
9
19
4
9
19
7
0
20
0
0
20
3
And food dependency
Self-sufficiency rate of certain basic products
(five-year averages)
Taux d'autosuffisance de certains produits de base
(moyennes quinquennales)
%
100
80
Pr laitiers
Céréales
60
Sucre
40
20
Huiles vég.
0
65
/
61
9
1
70
/
66
75
/
71
80
/
76
85
/
81
90
/
86
95
/
91
00
/
96
03
/
00
1.3. Degradation of natural
resources
Tendency to a « mining » type of exploitation of the
natural resources (Plan ql)
Limitation of the arable land and land pressure
(1 Active Ag = 2.3 ha; 5.2 (Tun), 14.1 (Sp), 22.8 (Fra)
Desertification, erosion and salinization of soil…
* 5.5 Mha under risk of erosion
* Annual loss of 22 000 ha of arable land
(urbanization, overexploitation of soils…)
* Annual loss of 31 000 ha of forest
* Area estimated at 93% «medium to highly
degraded»
Water…
3 Mha in «favorable rainfall areas» (+400 mm/an)
Irregularity of rainfall
Decrease of available quantities/inhab: 700 m3
(1185 m3 in 1990 and 651 m3 in 2025)
In 2005, Morocco was classified as in « hydric
stress»
Annual cost of degradation: 4.6% of GDP in 2000
1.4. Human resources: poverty and
analphabetism
HDI, 2005: Morocco, 124th (0.631, average LDCs: 0.694)
Morocco: The index is the lower of the Mediterranean
In the rural world…
An HDI half lower to the urban one
Almost 2/3 of poor population lives in rural areas
Analphabetism and low schooling
Lack of infrastructures: roads, potable water,
electricity…
Deficits in medical and sanitary coverage (infant
mortality, long distance to sanitary centers…)
A population of analphabet and old farmers:
* 81% analphabet (76% of SAU)
* 68% are over 45 years old (45% more than 55
years)
1.5. Land tenure structures
disadvantageous to modernization
Small size of exploitations: average of 6.1 ha
But 71% are -5ha and –25% of SAU
Parceling: each exploitation has 6.7 parcels of
0.9ha
25% of exploitations has an archaic status:
Collective, Guich, Habous, State…
Melk: joint tenancy, defects of registration…
Micro-exploitations (-3ha in rainfall areas and 1ha
in irrigation)
Under the viability threshold
41% of exploitations and 5% of SAU
1.6. Productive systems little
intensive
Disparities produced by the policy of dams
Fertilizers: 37 kg/ha (90 Kg on average in the
world)
Selected seeds: Used by 16% of exploitations
Mechanization: 1 tractor per 225 ha cultivated
(versus 1 tractor per 92 ha in the neighboring
countries of the South of the Mediterranean and
world average of 1 per 57 ha),
Reduction of half of the unities sold: 2380
between 1986 and 1990 to 1070 between 1999 and
2003.
Evolution de la consommation des engrais
(milliers de tonnes , unités fertilis ants )
400
300
200
100
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
0
Evolution des ventes de tracteurs
Unités
4000
3000
2000
1000
02
20
00
20
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
19
90
19
88
19
86
19
84
19
82
19
19
80
0
1.7. A sector badly articulated
with the rest of the economy
Strong dependency regarding equipment and external inputs
(ex: cost in currency of tomato: 64%)
Weak integration of the agro-food industry
Problems of commercial circuits, domestically and exports
Multiples deficiencies:
*Absence of structured distribution circuits
*Shortcoming of recognized quality norms
*Weakness of professional organizations
*Failure of conservation infrastructures, of transportation
and of freight…
1.8. Insufficient and unequally
distributed financial resources
Decrease of public resources affected by agriculture
(from 20 to 10% currently)
Hydro-agriculture investments are still predominant
Vicious circle of investment and financing
Weakness of private financing: CAM (14-15% of
financial needs in agriculture) and commercial banks
(3%)
The challenge of opening up…
Is this agriculture, which is more a «way of
life» than an economic activity, “summoned”
to pick up on the challenge of the opening up
to competition…
Is it ready to do so?
What are the chances of catching up?
How to succeed in 5 years with a reform
process that did not happen in 50 years?
2. Reminder of agriculture policies
From the involvement of the State to its
withdrawal…
Policy of dams and its consequences:
Investments, management, credits and subsidies,
fiscal issues, commercialization…
Structural adjustment policies and its failures:
Withdrawal of the state, liberalization,
privatization..
Inflation of strategies and lack of vision…
Double impasse of a double strategy:
Import-substitution and Export Promotion
3. The questions and tomorrow’s
stakes…
Risks and dangers of a short-sighted liberalization
3.1. What food security?
What are the risks and impacts of the exchange
liberalization in the country’s equilibrium?
3.2. What State withdrawal?
3.3. Prices and subsidies:
What regularization for what competitiveness?
3.4. Environment: What inheritance are we going to
leave to our children?
3.5. What State for what regulation?
3.1. What food security?
Food Security according to the IFIs:
A global and bookkeeping approach…
Food Security according to the WFO:
Availability + Accessibility
The later raises questions linked to
consumption models, to income, to
governance systems…
It necessarily leads to the concept of Food
Sovereignty…
Food sovereignty
This concept raises the question:
Who is going to produce to satisfy what needs?
Otherwise, food sovereignty states a Right, the right
of a population, in the framework of the State, or a
Union of States, to provide itself with the means to
produce for itself its own nutrition.
In the end, it’s the right to define an agriculture
policy and to provide the means to implement it…
What food sovereignty?
Liberalization of the rotations and choice of the
farmers
Ex. of sugar cultures: Surface of sugar cultures has stagnated and
Bet low, and as the rdts stagnate, the self-sufficiency rate
decreases from 64% to 52% (between 1986/90 and 2000-03).
What « Strategic threshold» is it necessary to preserve
for the food sovereignty?
How to reconcile the objectives/interests of the
peasants and those of the country?
Policy choices or economic decisions?
Exchange liberalization: What impact
in the country balance?
Lack of competitiveness of the Moroccan agriculture as
compared to the performing and State subsidized
agricultures
Last study of the WB: «Sensible negative impacts on
poor rural population in certain regions and for
certain types of households, impacts that should be
taken into consideration by social protection policies»
(Households already vulnerable; Regions of Chaouia-Ouardigha,
Rabat, Tadla-Azilal, Meknès-Tafilalet)
Two important questions…
Beyond the quality of quantitative studies, two
important questions are introduced:
What is the reaction capacity for what type of
exploitations?
Is it only an issue of «social treatment»?
Three profiles of exploitations in
face of liberalization…
Non-viable micro-exploitations (-3ha in pluvial and
1ha in irrigation, 41% of active population and half of
the rural population)
Cereals, vegetables
Competitive exploitations: A portion of the big ones
(2% and 22% of lands) and of SME
Opportunities for vegetables, some industrial and fruit
cultures (preserved vegetables, aromatic plants, citrus fruits,
olive oil, wine grapes…)
Exploitations to «upgrade»: A portion of the big and the
SME ones
All vegetable and animal productions…
Is it only a question of «social
treatment»?
The stakes: the «programmed» disappearance of
hundreds of exploitations and its implications at all
levels.
How to manage such a transfer of population, which
modifies the urban-rural balance?
It will be a global disruption, starting with the
reconsideration of demographic and regional
balances, continues with the economic and social
reordering, and should uncork a new political and
geostrategic chance …
That said, do we have the means of an aid to income?
3.2. What State withdrawal?
A withdrawal that has often created more of a
«void» than the long expected «shifts»
In a context of insufficient means…
The private sector didn’t know or couldn’t secure
the shifts so necessary
The professional organizations has not progressed
much
And «freedom» has not led either to more
«choices» nor to more «capacities» (A.Sen)
What State withdrawal?
The result has been:
Backward step in the management of production and
producers
Stagnation, even the recess of the modernization
efforts of exploitations and intensification of the
conditions of production
Inadequate and little rational choices of production
What State withdrawal?
Facts…
Between rent and agreement …
There where the withdrawal could have suppress rent:
Nothing has been done… (ex: major markets)
There where the «private sector» has always taken
advantage of the existing situations: agreements
have permitted to perpetuate the control of the
market…
(Export of fruits & vegetables, import of basic
products, trade of fertilizers and seeds,
transformation of subsidized products…)
What State withdrawal?
Facts…
Exports: Was it necessary to break the «OCE tool»?
To explain our disappointment, there is the
protectionism of the European Union
But also the weak commercial dynamism of our
exporters…
And the de-monopolization of the OCE has had only
advantages
Isn’t there a real need to rethink our export
strategy, and to provide it with new instruments?
What State withdrawal?
Facts…
When the withdrawal has not permitted neither the
emergence of a new order nor the preservation
of the gains: Case of ORMVA…
offices reduced to simple «vendeurs d’eau»
… But maintained with considerable active population
surpluses
… And a total absence of vision regarding the future.
Un true waste of human and financial resources…
3.3. Prices and subsidies: What
regulation for what competitiveness?
A policy that did not achieved its economic or social
objectives
The liberalization process has been well engaged, but
the most difficult part remains to be done, which
doesn’t satisfy anyone…
How to let go of subsidies when poverty remains so
huge?
How to suppress the subsidies and remain
competitive?
What alternative regulation model?
3.4. Environment:
What inheritance are we going to
leave to our children?
Poverty and degradation of human resources
Free-trade and ecologic risks (overexploitation of
marginal/fragile areas, abandon of little productive
regions (condemned to all sorts of desertification…)
and concentration in intensive agriculture areas,
condemned to an overexploitation of the environment
Competitiveness and cost of protecting the
environment
Worrying perspectives for 2025…
3.5. What State for what regulation?
The biggest challenge for Morocco: to succeed the
transition from a largely extensive and protected
agriculture to an intensive, competitive and more
open agriculture in the world market, and this at an
acceptable political, social and environmental price.
There is no choice but to try to cope the current
changes or tu suffer them…
Liberalization of trade exchanges starts with
internal reforms and extends to programmed and
negotiated opening…
Thanks for your attention