Transcript I. Current Status of National Accounts Development

National Accounts of Republic of Moldova
Achieved Results and Development
Prospects
Valentina Gydylika
Head of National Accounts
and Macroeconomic Synthesis Division
Istanbul, May 6-8, 2015
National Accounts of Republic of Moldova
I. Current status of national accounts
development
II. Improvement of quality of national
accounts development
III. Achieved results in national accounts
development
IV. Implementation of the 2008 SNA
V. Prospects for national accounts
development
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I. Current Status of National Accounts Development
1. In the Republic of Moldova, the national accounts had been implemented since
1995, with calculations in retrospective since 1993.
2. The current accounts are being drawn up: production, generation of income,
primary and secondary distribution of incomes, redistribution of income in kind,
use of disposable income. A capital transactions account is drawn up based on
accumulation accounts.
3. For residents of the country, the accounts are drawn up and published by five
institutional sectors of economy: non-financial corporations, financial
corporations, public administration, non-profit institutions serving households
and households.
4. Production and generation of income accounts are developed also by types of
economic activity
5. Transactions between residents and non-residents are reflected in the rest of
the world sector which consists of accounts of: goods and services, primary
incomes and текуcurrent transfers, capital transactions.
6. Accounts are developed in current and comparable prices.
7. Supply and disposition tables are developed by 55 types of economic activity
in current and comparable prices.
8. Table of integrated economic accounts are developed in current prices, by
domestic and foreign economy sectors.
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I. Current Status of National Accounts Development
Quarterly, gross domestic product is developed by production
methods: in whole by economy and types of economic activity and the use by
seven aggregates: households, public administration, non-profit institutions
serving households, gross fixed capital formation, stock changes, export and
import of goods and services.
Both annual and quarterly data are adjusted for volumes of elements of
non-observed economy. The non-observed economy elements are assessed
in accordance with the international standards (SNA 93) and with
Recommendations for Measuring the Non-Observed Economy issued under
auspices of OECD in 2002.
Calculations are performed by types of economic activity and by
sectors: formal sector (evasion of taxes, illegal business, hidden salary),
informal sector (self-employed, unpaid worker of family business, employers
which have from 1 to 5 and from 6 to 10 full-time salaried workers,
household products for sale) and household products for own final
consumption.
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Classifications Used in Calculations
 Moldova Classification of Economic Activities
(MCOEA, rev. 1);
 Classification of Individual Consumption according
to Purpose (COICOP);
 Classification of Functions of Public Administration
Bodies (COFPAB).
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II. Improvement of Quality of National Accounts Development
1. Improvement (enhancement) of information base.
a. revision and implementation of indicators (sections) necessary for development of the
national accounts into the statistical forms;
b. implementation of statistical reporting on quarter discrete basis;
c. analysis of information database at a level of economic agent;
d. assessment of statistical methods to check initial data and their updating;
e. improvement of methods and techniques for collection of business survey
information;
f. improvement of quality of sampling and methods for data dissemination for all set.
2. Cooperation with other departments with regard to information exchange.
The Ministry of Finance submits to the National Bureau of Statistics a detailed data
breakdown of Public National Budget; quarterly data are submitted at discrete basis.
The Ministry of Information Technologies submits data for coverage of calculations of final
consumption of households and gross fixed capital formation.
National Agency for Energy Regulation submits data on issue of natural gas, electricity and
heat to the consumers (households, state-financed organizations and economic agents) in
kind and in value terms, annually and quarterly.
Customs Service submits information on import of goods (in value terms) with indication
of payments on VAT, excise taxes, customs duties by each type of goods.
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II. Improvement of Quality of National Accounts
Development – continuation
Information on economic agents is submitted at level of 9 characters (Product
Range), on individuals – at level of 6 characters. Information is used for transition
from basis prices to buying prices, to calculate annual average price indices on goods
import/export, and for cross-check of tax amounts obtained from two departments:
Ministry of Finance and Customs Service. Additionally, the Customs Service provides
database with specification of import and export of goods for which an owner remains
unchanged.
National Bank – balance of payment data at detailed level.
State Taxation Service submits declaration on income tax and value-added tax with
identification codes; summarized information on entrepreneurial patents (for coverage
of delivery of services for population); information on tax inspections (to improve
calculations of non-observed economy).
National Pay Office of Social Insurance – list of economic agents which pay to the
National Pay Office of Social Insurance with identification codes.
Thereafter, for coverage of register, data from all sources of information
(administrative sources, financial results, business statistics) are harmonized.
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Improvement of Measuring the Indicators of Volume of
Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Before 2012, quarterly GDP was calculated in prices of the relevant
period of a previous year. This method did not allow to obtain annual
preliminary data of GDP in comparable prices as a sum of 4 quarters. It was
decided to calculate in annual average prices of the previous year. In this
regard, it was necessary to revise all deflators and price indices applied for
quarterly GDP calculations.
As it is difficult for some industry offices to provide necessary time
indices, some calculations are performed directly by the National Accounts
and Macroeconomic Synthesis Division.
Quarterly producer price index (PPI), consumer price index (CPI),
index of goods import/export prices in annual average prices of the previous
year are calculated on the basis of monthly indices provided by the
departments of industry, price statistics and foreign trade statistics.
For gross fixed capital formation, PPIs of the European Union
countries are used which are adjusted by exchange rate.
Regular implementation of annual average prices of the previous year
has been performed by the National Bureau of Statistics starting with the
calculations for the first quarter of 2013. For development of time series,
quarterly data for a year of 2011 and 2012 were also recalculated into annual
average prices of the previous year.
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III. Achieved Results in National Accounts Development of the
Republic of Moldova
Results achieved by means of:
1. Improvement of information base
а. improvements of statistical sources of information, implementation of necessary
indicators for making calculations;
b. coverage and consistency of data (cooperation with other ministries, departments with
regard to information exchange);
c. integration of all sources of data (business surveys and administrative sources) to
improve quality of business register.
2. Implementation of commodity flow method annually and quarterly for:
а. calculation of final consumption of households at a level of 4 characters of COICOP;
b. calculation of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) – investments (GFCF elements) are
disaggregated for construction and machinery and equipment.
3. Experimental calculations on imputed rent as per OECD recommendations (user
expenditure method).
4. Improvement of GDP volume indicators.
а. implementation of calculations of GDP quarterly data in annual average prices of the
previous year.
b. application of benchmarking to adjust quarterly data to annual results.
c. recalculation of GDP changes from years between 1995 and 2014 into prices of a year
of 2010 and use of seasonal adjustments.
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3. Improvement of GDP Volume Indicators.
d. Improvement of recalculation of taxes on products into comparable prices:
 Excise taxes – deflation through nominal growth of rates of excise taxes. To
determine average weighted volume index, 4 groups of excise taxes (the most
weighted – cigarettes, alcoholic beverages except for wine) have been adopted,
cars and energy resources;
 VAT – extrapolation through volume index of a part of final consumption of
households;
 Customs duties – through volume index of goods imported from abroad (except
for the CIS countries).
e. Recalculation of machinery and equipment – deflation through PPIs of the EU
countries.
f. Recalculation of import and export of services into comparable prices using
average weighted index of tourism, transport and communications, as very these
services have the highest specific weight in services.
Implementation of GDP quarterly calculations into official practice on a
discrete basis and recalculation into annual average prices of the previous year
allowed to obtain preliminary annual GDP estimate as a sum of four quarters.
5. Implementation of the Moldova Classification of Economic Activities of
Moldova, Rev.2, (MCOEA, rev.2).
а. branch statistics officially implemented COEA, rev.2 since January 2014.
b. National Accounts Office recalculated GDP time series (annual, quarterly) for
years between 1995 and 2014, in current and comparable prices in accordance
with COEA, rev.2 .
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Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Before a year of 2014, the activities on transition to the 2008 SNA were reflected in
Plan for Statistics Development for 2012-2014. Currently, the Strategy for Development
of National Statistical System for 2015-2020 is under elaboration which will reflect the
further steps on implementation of the 2008 SNA. First of all, it specifies a development
of those indicators which have an impact on GDP amount and structure.
1. Development of FISIM
а. Calculation in current prices. Calculations are performed on the basis of
information obtained from the National Bank of Moldova on balances of loans (L)
and deposits (D) by institutional sectors and average rate of interest on issued loans
(rL) and deposits (rD), by months in national and foreign currencies.
b. To determine reference rate (rr), the highest issued deposit interest is applied, by
months in national and foreign currencies.
c. According to the 2008 SNA methodology, FISIM is calculated by formula:
FISIM = [(rL – rr) x L] + [(rr – rD) x D]
FISIM in current prices, mln lei
1993 SNA
2008 SNA
2010
1499
1700
2011
1774
1548
2012
1743
1663
2013
1711
1706
2014
2251
2059
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Calculation in comparable prices is performed by deflation of loan
and deposit balances by quarters in national and foreign currencies,
using common CPI (for current quarter) calculated in annual average
prices of the previous year.
Using annual average interest rate on loans, deposits and basic interest
rate from the previous year in national and foreign currencies, FISIM is
determined according to known formula for loans and deposits in
foreign and national currencies, for each quarter separately. Annual data
are a sum of four quarters.
FISIM in comparable prices, mln lei
1993 SNA
2008 SNA
2011
1517
1814
2012
2032
1760
2013
1836
1909
2014
1896
1976
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2. FISIM Distribution between Final and Intermediate Consumption
by Sectors:
Intermediate consumption is distributed by types of economic activity, using a structure of
received and paid interests based on the annexes on financial results of the economic agents, and
by sectors according to source data obtained from the National Bank in terms of sectors.
Final consumption is distributed by sectors according to the same source data obtained
from the National Bank in terms of sectors.
Sectors
FC
IP
Nonfinancial sector
*
Financial sector
*
Public administration
*
Households
-Consumer loan
*
-Real estate loan (К70 – real estate
operations)
*
-Other loans
*
Deposits
Non-profit institutions serving households
*
*
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2. Issue of Central Bank, Reflections of Military Expenditures and
Research and Development Expenditures.
As for issue of the Central Bank, the reflections of research and development
expenditures, the experimental calculations were performed in accordance with the
2008 SNA for a year of 2013. The calculations were performed based on available
sources of information: Public budget implementation, Costs, Business expenditures
and investments, Structural questionnaire, Research and development activities,
Resources-distribution table.
During developments, the missing indicators (missing information) were
identified.
In this regard:
 jointly with the Ministry of Defence, a list of indicators was drawn up (types of
armament, cost, service life) which the Ministry of Defence (on certain conditions and
approved documents) will regularly submit to the NBS;
 with the National Bank, a procedure on singing the information exchange contract
is under completion. It lists the indicators required for making calculations;
 for development of research and development expenditures, the NBS will
introduce the required amendments to the statistical reporting form “On Research and
Development Activities”. In this regard, a cooperation has been established with the
Academy of Sciences which (by agreement) will submit to the NBS available
information on research and development expenditures.
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PROSPECTS FOR NATIONAL ACCOUNTS
DEVELOPMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA
1. Since quarter I of 2015, implementation of the classification of economic activities –
MCOEA, rev. 2;
2. To perform experimental calculations of cost of services of owner-occupied housing
as per the OECD recommendations, taking into account census returns for a year of
2014 (June 2016);
3. To perform experimental calculations of Gross Regional Product (2016);
4. Implementation of the 2008 SNA
Improvement of FISIM calculations:
- distribution by institutional sectors and by types of economic activity (as per MCOEA,
rev. 2);
- joint work with the National Bank to determine FISIM import/export (balance of
payment-VI issue).
To perform experimental calculations on:
- reflection of military expenditures (October 2015);
- issue of the central bank (July 2015);
- reflection of research and development expenditures (November 2015).
Implementation of the 2008 SNA (2017) and readjustment of time series (since
1995).
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Thank you for your attention
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