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Looking back, looking forward, in times
of multiple systemic challenges
Jock Martin, Head of Programme
European Environment Agency, Copenhagen
About the European Environment Agency
- is established by EEC regulation (1990)
- is in Copenhagen, 200 staff, 40 Meuro/year
- is an independent information provider
- is an analyst and assessor of trends
- is building bridges between science and policy
- is dependent upon strong networks to carry out its work
… to support policy processes and inform the public
EEA geographical coverage is broad
The EEA 2010 State of the Environment report...
“…showed an enhanced understanding of the links
between environmental challenges combined with
unprecedented global megatrends….and provided
insights into the shortcomings of governance. Natural
capital and ecosystem services provide an integral
starting point for managing many…… interconnected
issues, the systemic risks inherent in them, and the
transformation to a new, greener, more resource
efficient economy. There is no single 'quick fix' for the
challenges that Europe faces. Rather, as the report
shows, there is a clear case for long-term,
interconnected approaches to deal with them.”
Many systemic challenges but 3 to focus on:
• Financial/economic
• Energy/climate
• Ecosystems/biodiversity
Nine common causes of the 3 challenges
1 Over-consumption/under-investment.
2 Misleading market prices
3 Debts passed on to “distant others”
4 Not accounting for what matters
5 Lax regulation
6 Early warnings ignored
7 Misplaced faith in mathematical models
8 Poorly understood complex systems
9 Lack of knowledge of future systemic risks
Key differences between the 3 challenges
• Financial, economic and energy systems
are man-made… climate and ecosystems
are not.
• Financial and economic crises are visible;
short term; largely reversible.
• Climate and ecosystem crises are less
visible; longer term; mostly irreversible.
• Financial, economic, and energy, systems
depend on ecosystems, not vice-versa.
Some common avenues for action
Beyond GDP: accounting for natural resources
GDP at 3% = "sustainable growth"
Resource efficiency =
smart use of biomass,
water, materials &
energy through
innovations and fiscal
reforms
2000
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
4.7 Mio
km3
12.5 Mio
km3
GDP
Use of accessible
freshwater resource
200
0
20
10
20
'2
0
20
30
20
40
20
50
20
60
20
70
20
80
20
90
21
00
21
10
Ecological resilience =
management of land,
freshwater, ocean and
atmospheric
ecosystem
capital/services
Making ecosystem accounts
• Physical accounts of ecosystem capital
degradation (and impact on services) against
agreed EU and international policy targets
• Monetary accounts of ecosystem capital/service
depreciation (or consumption) measured using
mean values and prices, some market prices
• Monetary accounts of macro-economic benefits of
using ecosystems sustainably - who benefits from
nature and who should pay for restoration?
• First results for Europe will be available in spring
2013
Building on a long EEA track record…
Activities within
the United
Nations SEEA
revision process.
EEA coordinator
with UNSD and
World Bank
Land cover accounts
for Europe 1990-2000
(26 countries), 2006
Currently being
updated for year
2006 (34 countries),
2013
Ecosystem accounting
and the cost of
biodiversity losses — the
case of coastal
Mediterranean
wetlands, 2010, a report
for TEEB
Fast Track
implementation
of ecosystem
capital
accounts,
2010-2012 (with
Eurostat)
An experimental frAn
experimental
framework for
ecosystem capital
accounting in
Europe
EEA Technical
report
No
13/2011amework for
ecosystem capital
accounting in Europe
EEA Technical report
No 13/2011
Another track record: Late lessons from early warnings
http://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/late-lessons-2
Late Lessons from Early Warnings, 2001 and 2013
• histories of established hazards (asbestos,
mercury) and recent hazards (nanotech, GM)
• that have (or may) cause harm to people and
ecosystems and economies
• over a thousand pages across two volumes
• via 34 case studies and 7 conclusions…..
Seven conclusions in 2013
1. Reduce delays between early warnings and actions
2. Acknowledge complexity when dealing with multiple effects
3. Rethink and enrich environment and health research
4. Improve the quality and value of risk assessments
5. Foster cooperation between business, government and citizens
6. Correct markets using principles of precaution, polluter-pays
and prevention
7. Enhance governance of innovations through innovations in
governance
Early warnings also relevant to global finance
“In a global market the signs of supersystemic risk are multiplied.
However…inadequate risk assessments
relied on overly simplistic linear
models…that did not take into
account…the non –linear nature of the
hazards involved in international financial
markets…causing these multiplied signals
to be overlooked.”
London School of Economics, 2012.
Improving knowledge of future systemic risks
The need to look ahead
New thinking
Preparedness
“The world we have made, as a
result of thinking we have done
thus far, creates problems we can
not solve at the same level of
thinking at which we created them.”
(Einstein)
“For future success in almost any
area, we have to incorporate future
effects into our current decision
policy making.” (Commissioner
Potočnik)
What forward-looking information can do
•
Frame policies by identifying emerging issues
•
Reflect on different options for the future
•
Identify driving forces and uncertainties
•
Check whether targets can be met and their relevance
•
Develop robust measures and precautionary actions
•
Anticipate possible surprises, discontinuities, or shocks
•
Facilitate long-term thinking in a structured way
Forward looking information components
Information about
the future itself: a
for
countries
The practice of
studying the future:
Outputs
Thank you