Transcript War on drugs - Sergio Arboleda University

War on drugs
The cases of Colombia and Mexico
A tale of two epochs
WHY COLOMBIA?
But first, the business
1. Planting & harvesting the coca leaf (2 species
& 2 varieties): US $3 dollar/kg
2. Conversion of coca leaves into coca paste &
coca base & cocaine: US $3.000 dollar/kg
(from US $200)
3. Smuggling & delivering to distributor in the
US: US $18.000 dollar/kg
4. Distributor-dealer-user: US $200.000
dollar/kg
THE TWO MOMENTS IN A
COLOMBIAN SAGA
In the heart of the route of …. cocaine
But ….
AN ATTEMPT TO EXPLAIN
1976-1991: Colombia as a cocaine
“kitchen” & hub
• Colombian modest industrial & commercial
capacity: apt for coca processing
• People highly skilled in logistics: due to
Colombian poor highways
• Important Colombian community living in the
US (Miami)
• 1991: 25.000 hectares planted with coca
Why?
• Private rationality overtakes collective
responsibility
• Lack of social capital (strong community &
family & schools) that may help to prevent
anti-social behavior
• A weak Colombian state: unable to control
territory; strong in economic management;
impervious to popular demands.
• The parallel economy factor (culture of
illegality) in a closed economy that fostered
quasi-illegal activities (smuggling & emeralds)
The consequence
1991-2010: Colombia as cocaine
producer
• 2000: 163.000 hectares
• Successful eradication program in Peru: the
balloon effect.
• Birth of (complex) syndicated cartels and their
fragmentation: the never ending explosion
(The Medellin Cartel, The Cali Cartel, the
North of Valle Cartel, ……)
• Today: Colombia produces 70% of global
cocaine
Plan Colombia (2000)
Joint effort US-Colombia aimed to:
1. Reduce the production of illegal drugs
(primarily cocaine) by 50% in 6 years
2. Improve security in Colombia by re-claiming
control of areas held by illegal armed groups
(leftish & right-wing!)
Results
• US spent US $4 billion; Colombia US $7 billion
(1.5% GDP per year) between 2000-2006
• Results: 50% reduction in coca crop acreage
(now 80.000 hectares) but
• Cocaine production: only 11% reduction (300
tons/year) & prices fairly stable
• Why? More productive cultivation techniques
Mejia & Restrepo (2009)
• Colombia has become a safer place due to
curbing on drugs´ collateral business:
kidnappings, extortion …. corruption …
• Back to square one: Peru and Bolivia back to
the market?
WHITHER MEXICO
• Since the late 1980: the main conduit for
Colombian cocaine (and an active marihuana,
heroin & methamphetamines producer)
• December 2006: President Calderon declares
war on drugs cartels
• Why? A real threat or an attempt to posture
as a though leader?
The contenders
• The Gulf Cartel (Matamoros, Tamaulipas) plus
Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman (The Sinaloa
Cartel, Culiacan), The Familia Cartel
(Michoacan)
vs.
The Zetas (GC former armed wing, Tamaulipas)
and
The Ciudad Juarez Cartel,, The Beltran-Leyva
Cartel (Sinaloa)
The battlefield
The results
• The US is helping a hand with the Merida
Initiative: 1.4 billions multiyear (450 millions
per year)
• Death toll of 22.000 people dead in the entire
country
• Mayhem in the border: the case of Ciudad
Juarez (and other cities, Nuevo Laredo,
Reynosa)
Conclusions (by Mexicans)
• “The Mexican drug war is costly, unwinnable,
and predicated on dangerous myths.”
(Castañeda & Aguilar).
• Mexico is not a failed state but is entangled in
a failed war against drug cartels
• The real problem: the captured state (at
provincial level) by the mob!
An (personal) assessment
• A huge cost for Colombia: environmental
degradation, corruption, violation of human
rights, political, empowerment of criminals .
• Drugs trafficking politically blind: leftish
guerrilla (FARC) as the major cartel; the old
right-wing paramilitary (new criminal gangs)
as leading political actors (2010 elections).
And questions …
• Is there any way to tackle or reduce the
international demand for drugs?
• Is there any winning strategy for Mexico apart
from legalization of marijuana and heroin?
• Is Colombia daring enough to open the
international debate for legalization (in the
near future)?
Could anyone do anything in
Colombia?
• The US Government is investing US $465
million per year.
• The estimates is that US 1.5 billion per year
reduces 20% in the amount of cocaine
reaching consumer countries.
• So, US $7.5 billion per year is needed for ever
from American pursue. Is it feasible?
MANY THANKS