Transcript Global SOFI Applications

Global SOFI Applications
MPCC 2009
Two Scenarios Assumed
• Using available data through 2007-08
(essentially a repeat of 2007 SOFI since
recession did not yet appear in data).
• An assumed recession lastng ten years but not
as deep as the Great Depression.
Driver for Recession Scenario:
Percent Global Unemployment
12
11
10
ILO: 7.1% (2009)
Y
9
8
7
6
5
4
1980
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Year
The No Recession Case
2009 State of the Future Index
(without projected recession data)
1.20
1.10
1.00
No TIA
UQ
0.90
Med
LQ
0.80
0.70
0.60
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
The Recession Case
2009 State of the Future Index
(with projected recession data)
1.20
1.10
1.00
No TIA
UQ
0.90
Med
LQ
0.80
0.70
0.60
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
Some Recession Scenario TIA’s
Corruption
Poverty ($1.25/day)
Score (TI)
4.5
Bas
e
UQ
4.0
3.5
ME
D
3.0
2.5
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Percent Population
5.0
2030
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1980
Ba
se
U
Q
M
ED
1990
2020
2030
Food Availability
6500
3400
6000
3200
5500
Bas
e
UQ
5000
4500
ME
D
LQ
4000
3500
3000
Ba
se
UQ
2800
ME
D
LQ
2600
2400
3000
2200
2500
2000
1980
2010
Calories per Capita
Dollars per Person
GDP/Cap
2000
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2000
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
Improved and estimated to continue to improve
despite recession
2. Literacy rate, adult total ((percent of people aged 15 and above)
4. School enrollment, secondary (% gross)
6. Countries having or thought to have plans for nuclear weapons
9. GDP per unit of energy use
10. Number of Major Armed Conflicts (number of deaths >1,000)
11. Population growth (annual %)
20. Physicians (per 1,000 people)
21. Internet Users (per 1,000 pop)
22. Infant Mortality (deaths per 1,000 births)
24 Life Expectancy at Birth (years) (but possibly leveling off)
25. Women in Parliaments (percent of all members)
Improved in the past two decades with some risk
of future reversal
1. Improved water source (% of population with access)
5. Poverty headcount ratio at $1.25 a day (PPP) (% of population)
low and mid income countries
12. R&D Expenditures (% of national budget)
14. Clean Energy (percent of total energy supply)
15. Food availability (cal/cap)
16. Population in Countries that are Free (percent of total global
population)
18. GDP per capita (constant 2000 US$)
26. Number of Refugees (per 100,000 total population)
Worsened in the past two decades but may
reverse trend toward the better
19. People Voting in Elections (% population of voting age)
23. Forest Lands (% of all land area)
28. Prevalence of HIV (% of population 15-49) (post 1998)
Worsened in the past two decades and
will continue to worsen
3. Levels of Corruption (15 largest countries)
7. CO2 emissions (global, kt)
8. Unemployment, total (% of total labor force)
13. People killed or injured in terrorist attacks (number)
17. Global Surface Temperature Anomalies
27. Total debt service (% of GNI) low and mid income
Next Steps
• Collect other assumptions about the depth and
length of the recession
– use these to form scenarios that replace the single
scenario of the current study
• Search for beneficial policies and strategies using
economic element study (and other) results.
• Collect judgments to determine how best to
introduce SOFI into decision processes.
• Orient the work toward national recession scenarios