Transcript The Steady State Economy and the Mission of the U.S. Fish

The Fundamental Conflict
Between Economic Growth
and Wildlife Conservation
(Including Considerations of
Technological Progress)
The Center
for the
Advancement
of the
Steady State Economy
Compiled in collaboration
with The Wildlife Society’s
Working Group for the
Steady State Economy
Economic Growth
• an increase in the production and
consumption of goods and services
• typically expressed in terms of GDP
• facilitated by increasing:
–population
–per capita consumption
The Theoretical
Framework
GDP
K
Natural capital
allocated to
wildlife
Natural capital
allocated to
human economy
Time
Czech, B. 2000. Economic growth as the limiting factor for wildlife
conservation. Wildlife Society Bulletin 28(1):4-14.
PDF files for
these articles
available at The
Wildlife Society
website:
www.wildlife.org.
(Follow links to
Wildlife Society
Bulletin.)
Some Empirical Evidence:
Causes of Species Endangerment
as a “Who’s Who”
of the American Economy
Endangerment Causes
Urbanization
Agriculture
Water diversions (e.g., reservoirs)
Recreation, tourism development
Pollution
Domestic livestock, ranching
247
205
160
148
143
136
Czech et al. 2000. Bioscience 50(7):593-601.
Causes (cont.)
Mineral, gas, oil extraction
Non-native species
Harvest
Modified fire regimes
Road construction/maintenance
Industrial development
134
115
101
83
83
81
Czech et al. 2000. Bioscience 50(7):593-601.
Making sense of the
Who’s Who with
Trophic Theory
Basic Population
Dynamics
Individuals
Ecological Carrying
Capacity Scenarios
K
K-selection
r-selection
Time
Economic Carrying
Capacity Scenarios
K
K-selection
r-selection
Time
K and r-selected Economies
American GDP, 1929-1997
8000
K or r-selected?
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
1994
1989
1984
1979
1974
1969
1964
1959
1954
1949
1944
1939
1934
1929
0
But, for the sake of wildlife
conservation, it’s not
enough to hope we’re a
K-selected economy.
Wildlife Conservation and
Steady State Economy
To conserve wildlife...
K
...maintain steady state
economy sufficiently
below K.
Time
But what about
Technological
Progress?
Technological Progress
• Vernacular: invention, innovation
• Technical: increasing productive
efficiency resulting from invention
and innovation
Natural Capital
Allocation Revisited
GDP
X natural capital allocable
Natural capital
allocated
to non-human
economy
KU
KT
Natural capital allocated
to human economy
Time
The Big Hope
X natural capital remains allocable
GDP
X/2 conserved
Economic growth with
technology level 2
KU
K2
K1
Economic growth with
technology level 1
Time
The Great Debate:
Is There a Limit?
“Yes”
•
•
•
•
Physiocrats
Classical economists
Ecological economists
Ecologists
“No”
• Neoclassical
economists
• Corporations
• Politicians
Why would there
not be a limit?
• Substitutability of resources
• Increasing productive
efficiency
White Pine, “Big Wheel”
Sitka Spruce,
Timbco 435 “Feller Buncher”
Why would there
be a limit?
• Carrying capacity
• Thermodynamics
• Trophic levels
Carrying Capacity
» Consumers
» Products
» Byproducts
Thermodynamics
• Fixed amount of energy,
matter (E = mc2)
• Entropy
Another look at trophic
levels, this time in light of
thermodynamics.
Clear to All
Without technological progress,
GDP is limited.
Unclear to Many
Does technological progress occur
without economic growth at
current levels of technology?
Consider the Sources of
Technological Progress
• Research and development
• Corporate profit
• Economies of scale
Czech, B. 2003. Conservation Biology 17(5):1455-1457.
One More Look at Allocation
GDP
X natural capital allocable
Natural capital
allocated
to non-human
economy
KU
KT
Natural capital allocated
to human economy
Time
Remember the Big Hope?
X natural capital remains allocable
GDP
X/2 conserved
Economic growth with
technology level 2
KU
K2
K1
Economic growth with
technology level 1
Time
The Apparent Reality
X/2 natural capital allocable
GDP
X/2 converted
Economic growth with
technology level 2
KU
K2
K1
Economic growth with
technology level 1
Time
The “Information” Economy
The “Information” Economy
• What is the information
used for?
• How does one come to
afford the information?
Czech, B., and H. Daly. 2004. Wildlife Society Bulletin 32(2):598-605.
Steady State Economy
• Stable production and consumption of
goods and services
• Indicated by stable GDP
• Stabilized:
– population
– per capita consumption
– “throughput”
Quality of Life
• Steady in a material sense
• Increasing in a holistic sense
• Sustainable
• Ever higher relative to quality in
bloating economy
Jobs
• Ceteris paribus, constant
• Change with economic development
• Optimal size of economy for wildlife
biologist jobs
Bank Accounts
• Steady
• Sustainable
• Indicative of ecological footprint
No Bull
But No Bear
Political Economy
• Capitalist/socialist rhetoric misleading
• American constitutional democracy
– capitalist markets for private goods
– “socialist” markets for public goods
• Capitalist horse with democratic rider
How Much Wildlife?
• Smaller economy means more
wildlife
• Issue for American public and polity
• Both need knowledge of conflict
That’s Easy
• Feasibility
• Capability
• International leadership
• Equity
• Only the beginning
K
Time