Transcript Slide 1

Understanding America’s
‘Immigration Crisis’
Douglas S. Massey
Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs
Princeton University
Regional Origins of Undocumented Migrants
6%
4%
9%
57%
24%
Mexico
Other Latin America
Asia
Europe & Canada
Africa & Other
Percentage of Undocumented Migrants
60
56.8
50
30
20
10
7.1
3.5
2.5
2.2
2.0
1.9
1.6
1.5
1.5
Country
Po
la
nd
ua
ra
g
N
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a
ep
D
om
R
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s
H
on
du
pi
n
es
ti
H
ai
a
C
an
ad
Ph
ilip
G
ua
t
em
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a
ad
or
Sa
lv
ic
o
0
M
ex
Percentage
40
Rate of Mexican migration to the US in different categories
Legal Immigration Rate
40
Gentlemen's
Agreement
35
Contract Worker Rate
Operation
Wetback
Deportation Rate
Bracero Program Ends
Restrictive Era Begins
Bracero
Program
Begins
30
Rate per 1000
Apprehension Rate
US Enters
WWI
25
IRCA Enacted
Great
Depression
IRCA Legalization
20
First US
Quota Law
15
10
5
0
1902 1907 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Year
Rate of Mexican migration to the US in different categories
Legal Immigration Rate
40
Gentlemen's
Agreement
35
Contract Worker Rate
Operation
Wetback
Deportation Rate
Bracero Program Ends
Restrictive Era Begins
Bracero
Program
Begins
30
Rate per 1000
Apprehension Rate
US Enters
WWI
25
IRCA Enacted
Great
Depression
IRCA Legalization
20
First US
Quota Law
15
10
5
0
1902 1907 1912 1917 1922 1927 1932 1937 1942 1947 1952 1957 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002
Year
Six Eras of Mexican Migration
•
•
•
•
•
•
Recruitment 1907-1919
Floodtide 1920-1929
Deportations 1930-1941
Bracero 1942-1964
Undocumented 1965-1985
Contradiction 1986-2007
Two Critical Dates in New Era
• 1986
– Under pressure from U.S. Mexico Joins GATT
• Opens Economy to Global Trade and Investment
– U.S. Congress Passes IRCA
• Grants Legal Status to 2.3 Million Mexicans
• Criminalizes Undocumented Hiring
• Begins Militarization of Border
• 1994
– Mexico and US Join Together in NAFTA
• Lowers barriers to cross-border movements of goods, capital,
resources, information, services, and certain classes of people
– US Launches Operation Gatekeeper in San Diego
• All-out Effort to Stop the Inflow of Mexican labor
• Erects Steel Wall from Pacific Ocean to Sierra Madre Mountains
Indicators of Cross-Border Economic Integration
Total Trade
Business Visitors
Intercompany Transferees
Exchange Visitors
9
Value Relative to 1986
8
NAFTA Takes Effect
Mexico Joins GATT
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
Year
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Indicators of Border Enforcement 1980-2002
Border Patrol Officers
Linewatch Hours
Border Patrol Budget
11
10
IRCA Enacted
Value Relative to 1986
9
8
7
Operation Gatekeeper
Launched in San Diego
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
Year
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Costs of Contradiction
• Transforms Mexican Immigration from a
Regional to a National Phenomenon
• Raises Death Rate Among Border Crossers
• Lowers the Probability of Border Apprehension
• Reduces Rate of Return Migration
• Increases the Rate of Settlement
• Increase Net Rate of Undocumented Migration
• Shifts Composition from Workers to Families
• Puts Downward Pressure on US Wages and
Undermines Working Conditions for US Workers
Jorge Durand
University of Guadalajara
and
Douglas S. Massey
Princeton University
http://mmp.opr.princeton.edu/
Current MMP Sample
93 Binational Communities
Surveyed 1982-2002
15,992 Households
837 in U.S.
Sample Yields Basic Data on:
19,850 U.S. Migrants
12,089 Undocumented Migrants
6,209 Complete Life Histories
Proportion Going to New Crossing Points and Destinations
New Destination
New Crossing
0.7
Operation Blockade
Launched in El Paso
Proportion of Migrants
0.6
IRCA Enacted
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
Year
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
Death rate from suffocation, drowning, heat exhaustion, exposure,
and unknown causes along border 1986-98
0.07
Rate per 1,000 Entries
0.06
Operation Blockade
Launched In El Paso
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Year
Probability of Apprehension 1980-2001
0.4
Operation Blockade
Launched in El Paso
0.35
0.3
Probability
IRCA Enacted
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Average Cost of Hiring a Coyote
1400
1200
Operation Blockade
Launched in El Paso
1000
Dollars
IRCA Enacted
800
600
400
200
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Annual Probability
Probability of First Undocumented Migration and Return 1980-2001
Males
Females
Return
0.5
0.45
Operation Blockade
Launched in El Paso
0.4
0.35
0.3
IRCA Enacted
0.25
0.2
0.15
0.1
0.05
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Number of Mexicans in the United States 1980-2002
10000
9000
IRCA Enacted
Operation Blockade
Launched in El Paso
Number in Thousands
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Average Wages Earned by Mexican Migrants to US
Undocumented
Documented
13.00
12.00
IRCA Passes
Hourly Wage
11.00
10.00
9.00
8.00
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002
Year
Summary
• Strategy of Finessing Contradiction Through
Border Militarization Has Not Worked
• On the Contrary,It Has Backfired:
– Transformed a circular flow of workers going to 3
states into a settled population of families in 50 states
– Doubled net undocumented migration to U.S.
– Lowered probability of apprehension
– Caused hundreds of needless deaths per year
– Reduced wages of legal workers and citizens
– All at great cost to taxpayers
From Border Enforcement to
Immigration Management
• New philosophy of immigration control
– Rather than viewing Mexican immigration as a
pathological condition to be suppressed by police
actions along the border
– See it as a natural outgrowth of economic integration
in North America and work to manage in ways that
benefit of all parties
• Take lesson from the European Union
– Canada & U.S. should treat Mexico in same way that
Northern Europe when it brought Spain into the E.U.
Figure 1. Openness of Spanish economy 1954-2004
72
Spain
Enters EU
66
60
Franco Dies
Openness Index
54
48
Spain Applies
for Entry to EU
42
36
30
24
18
12
6
0
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
Year
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
Figure 2. Real GDP per capita in Spain and Northern Europe 1954-2004.
28000
26000
Spain Applies
for EU Entry
24000
Northern Europe
Spain
Enters EU
22000
GDP per Capita
20000
18000
Spain
16000
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
Year
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
Figure 3. Spain's transition to EU membership: migration, income, and openness
2.2
Openness
2
Indicator relative to 1986
1.8
Spain
Enters EU
1.6
1.4
GDP Gap with
Northern Europe
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
Gross Emigration
of Spaniards
0.4
Net Emigration
of Spaniards
0.2
0
1984
-0.2
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
-0.4
Year
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
Figure 4. Structural adjustrment funds transferred from EU to Spain 1986-1999
4000
Regional Development Fund
3500
Millions of US Dollars
3000
2500
Social Fund
2000
1500
Cohesion Fund
1000
500
0
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
Year
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Figure 5. Oppenness of Mexican versus Spanish economy 1954-2004.
80
70
Mexico Joins GATT
Opennness Index
60
Mexico Joins NAFTA
50
40
30
20
Mexico
10
Spain
0
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
Year
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
Figure 8. Real GDP per capita in Canada and the United States versus Mexico
35000
Mexico
Enters
NAFTA
Mexico Joins
GATT
30000
GDP per Capita
25000
Canada and
United States
20000
15000
10000
Mexico
5000
0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
Year
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Figure 9. Mexico's entry into NAFTA: migration, income, and openness
4
Openness
Value Relative to 1986
3.5
3
2.5
Permanent
Emigration
2
1.5
GDP Gap
1
0.5
0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
Year
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Figure 11. Openness of Polish versus Mexican economy 1970-2004
70
Mexico Joins
GATT
60
Communism
Ends in Poland
Openness Index
50
40
30
20
10
Mexico Joins
NAFTA
Poland Joins
European Union
0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
Year
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Agenda for Reform
• Increase Quotas for Mexico and Canada
• Re-establish Guestworker Program
– Visas to workers rather than employers
• Issue National ID to All Legal Workers
• Structural Adjustment Fund Instead of Walls
• Legalize Undocumented Population
– Amnesty for those who entered as minors
– Guestworker visa for recent arrivals
– Earned legalization for long-term residents