Transcript Montreux Summary Presentation

Enhancing UNICEF’s
Economic Crisis Response:
A Policy Strategy Emerging from
the Montreux Discussions
Social Policy and Economic Analysis Unit, PAKM
UNICEF Policy and Practice Group
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
New York 14 April, 2009
PD Technical Staff Meeting, Labouisse Hall
The structure of the presentation
1.
UNICEF’s Consultative Workshop in Montreux
2.
The global economic crisis
3.
A child and gender-centered socioeconomic crisis
response: a “social protection plus” strategy
4.
Building blocks: next steps for “SP+”
5.
Concluding remarks
1. Background on ‘Montreux’
• A UNICEF Consultative Workshop with over 40 participants from all
major regions plus Brussels, Geneva, Florence and New York offices,
25-27 March 2009, Montreux, Switzerland
– See agenda, participants and key documents at intranet webpage:
http://intranet.unicef.org/dpp/PolicyAdvocacy.nsf
• Purpose: help coordinated rolling out UNICEF’s Focus Area 5 ‘Policy
Advocacy and Partnerships for Children Rights’
– the UNICEF-UNIFEM Side Event at the Follow-up International Conference
on Financing for Development to Review the Implementation of the
Monterrey Consensus, Doha, November 2008
– earlier consultations: the “Pratolino” process and the September 2008
UNICEF Executive Board special focus session
– UNICEF’s 2006-2011 Strategic Priorities following the 2008 mid-term review
cast child poverty, social budgeting and social protection as priority areas for
analysis and advocacy
1. Background on ‘Montreux’ (cont’)
• Innovation
– the first ever meeting of UNICEF’s emerging global network of
socioeconomic policy specialists
– focus on the economic crisis
– ILO, WHO and academia invited for discussion on social protection
• Outcomes
– agreement on the main thrusts of a ‘social protection plus’ strategy to
contain crisis impacts on children and women
– delivered by concrete follow-up steps in five main areas
• Monitoring the impact of the crisis
• Building crisis-related analysis and evidence
• Policy advocacy strategy
• Strengthening capacity for socioeconomic policy engagement
• Enhancing knowledge management
– with the purpose to turn the crisis into an opportunity for countries to address
long-standing barriers to progress for children.
1. Background on Montreux: the six sessions
• Session 1. Introduction and review on the economic crisis
• Session 2. Partnerships
• Session 3. Stocktaking on FA5
• Session 4. Crisis response: enlarging policy space
• Session 5. Crisis response: social protection for children and women
• Session 5. Linking building blocks for a strategy
• Session 6. Concluding session
2. The global economic crisis
10
World
Advanced economies
Emerging and developing economies
8
6
4
2
0
1990
-2
-4
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2. This economic crisis is more than just a recession
• Progress in Financing for Development (FfD) action between 2002-2007
–
–
–
–
–
Private capital flows (especially FDI)
 GOOD PROGRESS
Trade as engine of growth
 PROGRESS
Increasing international cooperation (Aid/Debt)  PROGRESS
Domestic resources mobilization
 UNEVEN PROGRESS
Systemic issues (monetary, financial and trading systems)
 LITTLE PROGRESS
• What we see in 2008-2009 is a blackout in globalization
– the financial crisis has turned former Monterrey ‘progress areas’ into
transmitting channels of the downturn
– ‘no progress areas’ impair national and global ability to respond!
• Current projections:
– Decline in net private capital flows from $900bn in 2007 to $165bn in 2009
– 6% drop in trade in 2009
– Drop in foreign aid
– Drop in remittances
NB. All projections are highly uncertain – 2010 may not actually be much better!
2. Global economic crisis: transmission channels
WORLD
ECONOMY
NATIONAL
ECONOMY
Access to public services
PRIVATE INVESTMENTS
Access to employment
SHOCK
FOREIGN AID
Access to financial services
OTHER LINKAGES
Access to basic goods
♦ Imbalances in food
and energy markets
Other linkages
♦ Asymmetries in
trade, capital and
labour flows
♦ Sustainability and
equity issues
around development
REMITTANCES
Boys/Girls
♦ Overleveraged
financial assets,
weak regulation
COPING STRATEGIES (e.g. by women)
GOODS & SERVICES TRADE
HOUSEHOLD
ECONOMY
Compounding factors: governance and institutions, culture and geography, climate
change, technological change, demographic change etc.
2. The global economic crisis: key points from the
discussion in Montreux
• This crisis is universal – no countries, no population groups will be spared
from its effects
• The concrete mix of transmission channels is region- and country specific
– Apart from OECD, CEE/CIS (external financing, terms of trade) and Latin
American countries (external demand) appear the most negatively affected
currently
– Economic growth projections were revised downward also for Africa: here
currently +2.4% growth is expected in 2009 (are similar to the rate of
population growth)
– Without China and India developing countries on average will post no
economic growth in 2009
• Countercyclical macroeconomic policy requires financing, fiscal space
2. The global economic crisis: key points from the
discussion in Montreux (cont’)
• Fiscal space, reserves vary… reflecting FfD progress over 2002-2007
Source: World Bank.
The index averages standardized indexes of debt/GDP, international reserves, fiscal deficit,
current account balance, and reversible capital inflows using data for 2002-07.
2. The global economic crisis: key points from the
discussion in Montreux (cont’)
• But some of the fiscal space has already been already used up to contain
inflation fuelled by rising food and energy prices in 2008
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database
2. The global
economic crisis:
the IMF is
becoming a key
player again
• Filling in holes left by
shrinking private capital
flows
2. The global economic crisis: G20 fiscal stimuli
Initial Conditions
Public
Fiscal
Debt
Balance
(percent
(percent
2008
2008
GDP)
GDP)
Argentina
Australia
Brazil
Canada
China
France
Germany
India
Indonesia
Italy
Japan
Korea
Mexico
Russia
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Spain
Turkey
UK
US
51.0%
15.4%
40.7%
62.3%
15.7%
64.4%
62.6%
59.0%
30.1%
103.7%
170.4%
27.2%
20.3%
6.8%
17.7%
29.9%
38.5%
37.1%
47.2%
60.8%
1.7%
0.3%
N/A
0.1%
0.4%
-2.9%
0.9%
-4.2%
-1.3%
-2.7%
-3.1%
0.9%
0.0%
6.2%
11.2%
0.2%
-2.4%
-1.5%
-4.8%
-3.2%
Spending in 2009
Percent
USD
2008
amount
GDP
(bb)
4.4
8.5
5.1
23.2
90.1
20.5
55.8
6.5
6.7
4.7
66.1
13.7
11.4
30.0
17.6
4.0
18.2
0.0
37.9
268.0
1.3%
0.8%
0.3%
1.5%
2.1%
0.7%
1.5%
0.5%
1.3%
0.2%
1.4%
1.4%
1.0%
1.7%
3.3%
1.3%
1.1%
0.0%
1.4%
1.9%
Total size of the stimulus
USD
Percent
Tax cut
amount
2008
share
(bb)
GDP
4.4
19.3
8.6
43.6
204.3
20.5
130.4
6.5
12.5
7.0
104.4
26.1
11.4
30.0
49.6
7.9
75.3
0.0
40.8
841.2
1.3%
1.8%
0.5%
2.8%
4.8%
0.7%
3.4%
0.5%
2.5%
0.3%
2.2%
2.7%
1.0%
1.7%
9.4%
2.6%
4.5%
0.0%
1.5%
5.9%
0.0%
41.2%
100.0%
45.4%
0.0%
6.5%
68.0%
0.0%
79.0%
0.0%
30.0%
17.0%
0.0%
100.0%
0.0%
0.0%
36.7%
N/A
73.0%
34.8%
Prasad and Sorkin March 2009 Brookings, Washington D.C.
2. The global economic crisis: key points from the
discussion in Montreux (cont’)
• Some countries will pursue fiscal stimulus
 UN/UNICEF monitoring, analysis and advocacy could help making the fiscal
stimulus child and gender-sensitive
• Others will need to undergo structural adjustment/receive IMF support
 UN/UNICEF monitoring, analysis and advocacy could help protecting women
and children
• The depth and length of the global recession matters for the design of
national macroeconomic policy strategies
 Countercyclical/Keynesian policies create momentum for social protection
 But caution is needed: the last thing we want is fragile states newly indebted!
 Can we forge an alliance between IFIs and UN/UNICEF?
• ‘New poverty’ versus ‘old poverty’: understanding of ‘vulnerability’
• Paradigm shift: state versus markets? More nuanced approach is needed
 Need for evidence-based, child and gender sensitive social protection
 Washington Consensus may survive as knee-jerk reaction in country contexts
3. Crisis response: a “social protection plus”
strategy
• Three main strategy elements
– Child and gender-sensitive social protection systems that keep focus on
the protection and promotion objectives rather than on the instruments
– Social and gender-sensitive budgeting for basic social services and social
protection that considers urgency as well as longer-term trends and
objectives (MDGs, climate change, demographic change, migration)
– Multidimensional, engendered approach to child poverty focusing on
investing in children (avoiding irreversible losses)
• Implementation
– Evidence-based, sustainable, concrete policy proposals at the country
level in partnerships with governments and the international community
 Strengthening national and sub-national monitoring and policy analysis
– Advocacy and mobilization at the global level (Global Social Floor,
Comprehensive Framework for Action, Vulnerability Facility)
 Global Vulnerability Alert
4. Building blocks: next steps for “SP+”
• Monitoring the impact of the crisis
– Short guiding note on practical field-based monitoring (Mahesh Patel,
EAPRO and Jingqing Chai, DPP-PAKM)
– Item to be addressed in the upcoming M&E meeting in April (Marco
Segone, CEE-CIS and DPP/IRC)
– Monitor aid flows (Margaret Wachenfeld, UNICEF Brussels and Bjorn
Gillsater, GMA)
• Building crisis-related analysis and evidence
– Finalize the child-sensitive social protection statement and circulate with
partners (Gaspar Fajth, DPP-PAKM)
– Position paper on UNICEF’s policy response including its implications for
work across FA1-5 of the MTSP (David Stewart, DPP-PAKM with PD
colleagues)
– Look into the new stimulus packages crisis related budget-adjustments
(Ron Mendoza DPP-PAKM and Jingqing Chai, DPP-PAKM in coordination
with ROs)
• Policy advocacy strategy
– Draft message from the Executive Director asking country offices to
feedback on their activities related to the crisis (Richard Morgan, DPP)
4. Building blocks: next steps for “SP+” (Cont’)
– Social policy website / policy advocacy toolkit /list of forthcoming events
(David Stewart, DPP-PAKM)
– ‘2-pager’ on UNICEF policy advocacy that would leverage social/economic
policy work (Juliana Lindsey, ACMA and Gordon Alexander, CEE-CIS)
• Strengthening capacity for socioeconomic policy engagement
– Review training programs and recommend a revised portfolio related to
social policy (Tony Hodges, Gabriele Koehler ROSA, WCAR, Jingqing
Chai, DPP-PAKM and Barbara Brown, HR)
– Enhance fund raising activities (Jens Matthes, PFP, Gaspar Fajth, DPPSPEA, Marco Segone, CEE-CIS)
• Enhancing knowledge management
– Webpage on the financial/economic crisis and “In Practice” and further set
of actions aimed at knowledge sharing (Ian Thorpe, DPP-PAKM)
5. Concluding remarks
 our model on understanding social protection for children needs further
thinking and elaboration…
Social protection
Education
Violence
prevention
Referral
Social Policy
Child protection
5. Concluding remarks (cont’)
 The Programme Group’s contribution to UNICEF’s crisis
response is essential!
Thank you!