Transcript Division Name: Title Slide

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Survey on the economy
Greece 2004
Prepaired for the EUROCHAMBERS
Date: November 5th,2003
TNS ICAP
64, Vas. Sofias Ave., Athens 11528
T: (+30)210 7260600
E: [email protected]
GALLUP INTERNATIONAL ASSOCIATION
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1 . Greece in Figures
2. Key Findings
3. Economic Indicators
3.1 Total Turnover
3.2 Domestic Sales
3.3 Exports
3.4 Employment
3.5 Investment
3.6 Business Confidence
4. Methodology
APPENDIX
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1. GREECE IN FIGURES
The macroeconomic indicators of the Greek economy, as can be seen from
the following table, show the progress of the Greek economy over the past 6
years. All the key indicators, in total and each one progressively over time
make apparent the growth, the evolution and the future of the Greek
economy
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Population
10.487
10.511
10.522
10.920
10.955
10.988
GDP (market
fixed prices of
the previous
year)
GDP (%
volume
change)
GDP per
inhabitant
(market fixed
prices of last
year)
Unemployment
rate
91.046
100.505
109.586
117.590
126.615
136.102
3,5
3,4
3,6
4,2
4,1
4
8.682
9.562
10.415
10.768
11.558
12.386
9,6
10,8
11,7
11,1
10,2
9,6
Export of goods
(million €)
Import of
goods (million
€)
Total Trade
balance
(million €)
5.689,8
5.922,9
8.030,3
11.098,6
11.545,4
10.433,6
20.924,6
20.746,3
24.919,0
33.026,1
33.156,3
33.142,3
-15.234,8
-14.823,4
-16.888,7
-21.927,5
-21.610,9
-22.708,7
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2. Main Findings
2003 was an average year for the Greek businesses. The continuing drop
of the stock exchange, the war in Iraq and the uncertainty for the future
developments as well as the actual use of the Euro in everyday
transactions had a negative impact on the Greek companies.
More specifically 1 out of 2 businesses stated that the influence of the
general financial conditions that prevail in the market had a negative effect
over their business. This statement contributed to a negative balance for
the business confidence. Small companies seem to have suffered more
since they are the ones to present the smallest balances.
Research results indicate that Greek companies are optimistic for 2004
possibly due to the Olympic Games that are expected to increase
business transactions. Thus all the financial indicators for 2004 and
positive. Business seem to place their efforts for recovery by increasing
the local sales (6 out of 10 state that they expect increase in sales) thus
increasing the total turnover as well.
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3.1 FINANCIAL INDICATORS
Total Turnover
Almost 1 out of 2 (51%) businesses state that their total turnover increased
whereas for 1 out of 4 (26%) state that it remained constant. Respectively for
the same proportion of businesses (1 out of 4) there was a reduction in their
total turnover. Therefore the net balance is at +24%. No differences are
observed among the different sectors.
For 2004 businesses in Greece appear to be quite optimistic since they predict
an increase of their total turnover thus leading to a net balance of +50%. For
both sectors the net balance is positive (+49% and +52%, respectively).
Notably only a 12% of the businesses from the manufacturing sector and a
10% from the service sector forecast a decrease of their total turnover for
2004.
TOTAL TURNOVER FOR 2003 AND 2004
Total and per sector
Total
Manufacture
Services
0
20
40
60
80
100
Balance
2003
2004
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3.1 FINANCIAL INDICATORS
Total Turnover
Optimism about the company´s total turnover is clearly linked with the size of
the company. More specifically the bigger the company the greater the
optimism. Thus large companies are the most optimistic (+67%), followed
the mid-sized companies (+63%) while the smaller companies are at a
significant lower (+34%) net balance.
TOTAL TURNOVER FOR 2003 AND 2004
Total and per company size
Total
50+
10-49
-9
0
20
40
Balance
60
80
2003
* Company size is determined by the number of personnel
100
2004
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3.2 FINANCIAL INDICATORS
Domestic Sales
1 out of 2 companies (49%) stated that domestic sales increased whereas 1
out of 4 (24%) stated that they remained constant. The same proportion has
seen their domestic sales to drop during 2003.
Businesses appear to be very optimistic for their domestic sales in 2004. Thus
6 out of 10 state that they expect an increase in the domestic sales. Thus the
balance is at a +45%.
The service sector expresses greater expectations (+52%) in relation to the
manufacturing sector (+40%)
DOMESTIC SALES FOR 2003 AND 2004
Total and per sector
Total
Manufacture
Services
0
2003
2004
20
40
Balance
60
80
100
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3.2 FINANCIAL INDICATORS
Domestic Sales
The 2003 balance of domestic sales varies according to the company size.
Thus for small companies the balance is at +34%. On he contrary for medium
sized and large companies the balances are at +53% and at +59%
respectively.
DOMESTIC SALES FOR 2003 AND 2004
Total and per company size
Total
50+ employees
10-49 employees
1-9 employees
0
20
40
60
80
100
Balance
2003
2004
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3.3 FINANCIAL INDICATORS
Exports
26% of the companies that were asked confirmed that they have
exporting activity. Among these companies the vast majority (86%)
belongs to the manufacturing sector. The companies that have exporting
activity make a quite positive forecast for their exports in 2004, since
from +19% at 2003 increases at +37% for 2004.
EXPORTS FOR 2003 AND 2004
Total and per sector
Total
Manufacture
0
20
40
Balance
60
80
2003
100
2004
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3.4 FINANCIAL INDICATORS
Employment
Almost 1 out of 2 businesses (55%) state that the number of employees for
2003 in relation to 2002 has remained constant. On the contrary almost 3 out
of 10 businesses (28%) state that the number of employees has increased
whereas for the 17% of the businesses it has reduced. Thus the net balance
is at +11%.
The forecasts for 2004 are not different in relation to 2003 proving that
changes in demand are not very likely. Thus the net balance climbs from
+11% to +18% in 2004.
By examining the trends per sector we observe that the manufacturing sector
presents a much lower balance in relation to services. Thus the balance for
the manufacturing sector is at +10% whereas for the services is at +29%.
EMPLOYMENT FOR 2003 AND 2004
Total and per sector
Total
Manufacture
Services
0
20
40
60
Balance
80
100
2003
2004
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3.5 FINANCIAL INDICATORS
Investment
The balance for investment was for 2003 at a +27%. More specifically 38% of
businesses increased their investments, 51% kept them constant (in relation to
2002) whereas 10% made a reduction in investment.
The balance for 2004 does not present great difference since it is at a +34%
level, which means that companies do not expect a significant change in this
area.
INVESTMENTS FOR 2003 AND 2004
Total and per sector
Total
Manufacture
Services
0
20
40
60
Balance
80
2003
100
2004
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3.5 FINANCIAL INDICATORS
Investment
For 2003, as is evident for the research results, the size of the business
influences considerably investment. More specifically, although for small
businesses the balance is at +18%, increases at +36% for medium and at
+35% for large businesses. For 2004 the number of businesses that foresee
increase in investment is larger that the number of those who foresee
reduction. This belief is stronger among medium and large businesses in
relation to small ones.
INVESTMENT FOR 2003 AND 2004
Total and per number of employees
Total
50+ employees
10-49 employees
1-9 employees
0
20
40
60
80
100
Balance
2003
2004
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3.6 FINANCIAL INDICATORS
Business Confidence
2003 was not a good year for the Greek businesses. Thus the 51% of
businesses stated that the effect of general business conditions had a
negative effect on their business.
Businesses appear more optimistic for 2004 since 4 out of 10 state that the
general business conditions will influence positively their company. The total
balance is at relatively high levels (+19%) considering the 2003 balance (29%). As expected small companies appear less optimistic. For these
companies the balance is marginally positive for 2004 (+5%) whereas for the
medium sized the balance is at +32% and for large companies is at +19%.
Moreover the service sector appears more optimistic given that the balance is
at +26% whereas for the manufacture the balance is just +14%.
INFLUENCE OF GENERAL CONDITIONS ON THE FIRM FOR 2002 AND
2003
In total and per sector
Total
Manufacture
Service
-100
-50
0
Balance
50
100
2003
2004
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METHODOLOGY
The Economic Survey 2003 was conducted by the Union of Hellenic
Chambers in cooperation with the TNS ICAP AE for the Eurochambres.
The interviews were conducted via telephone from October 21th to
October 27th.
The sample consisted of 400 companies belonging to the industrial and
service sectors.
The interviews were conducted with the Finance
Directors of the companies during office hours.
The sample structure was based on the activiey and size of the company.
With respect to the company´s activity, and according to the guidelines of
the Eurochambres, the companies belonged to the industrial and service
sectors. Company size was determined by number of employees. Small
companies were defined as those with 1-9 employees, medium-sized
companies were those with 10-49 employees and large companies
employed 50 or more persons.
Stratified sampling was used.
The sample is representative of the
universe of Greek companies as they appear in ICAP´s database. The
sample was weighted by sector and size of company so that results
reflect the actual distribution in the universe.
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Appendix
EES 2003 – GREECE DATA
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EES 2003
NATIONAL RESULTS
Q1 Total Turnover 03
Q2 Total Turnover 04
Q3 Domestic Sales 03
Q4 Doemstic Sales 04
Q5 Exports 03
Q6 Exports 04
Q7 Employment 03
increase
stable
decrease
balance
increase
stable
decrease
balance
increase
stable
decrease
balance
increase
stable
decrease
balance
increase
stable
decrease
balance
increase
stable
decrease
balance
increase
stable
decrease
balance
Total
51
26
23
28
61
24
11
50
49
24
24
25
59
22
14
45
43
31
26
17
49
31
15
34
28
55
17
11
Manufacture
51
26
23
28
61
24
12
49
48
25
25
23
57
22
17
40
44
31
25
19
52
28
15
37
28
55
17
11
Service
51
26
23
28
62
24
10
52
50
24
22
28
62
21
10
52
37
28
30
7
33
52
15
18
29
53
17
12
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EES 2003
National Results
(cont)
Q8 Employment 04
Q9 Investment 03
Q10 Investment 04
Q11 Confidence 03
Q12 Confidence 04
Total Companies
Exporting companies
increase
stable
decrease
balance
increase
stable
decrease
balance
increase
stable
decrease
balance
increase
stable
decrease
balance
increase
stable
decrease
balance
Total
Manufacture
Service
30
56
12
18
38
51
10
28
42
46
8
34
22
26
51
-29
42
30
23
19
26
55
16
10
40
51
8
32
44
45
8
36
22
25
53
-31
40
28
26
14
35
57
6
29
34
51
12
22
38
48
9
29
23
29
47
-24
44
34
18
26
400
105
244
90
156
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Appendix
Questionnaire
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Appendix
STATISTICAL TABLES