Transcript What is the nature of specific land use problems

8-a.
What is Sustainability & How Does it
Relate to Natural Resource
Management?
Larry D. Sanders
(SPRING 2006)
Dept. of Ag Economics
Oklahoma State University
1
INTRODUCTION
--ch. 11-12 Hackett; Lectures 21 Mar, 4 Apr
 Purpose:
– to become aware of the concept of sustainability &
long term thinking
 Learning
Objectives. To understand/become aware
of:
1. The concept of sustainability with respect to
agriculture.
2. The concept of sustainability with respect to poor
developing countries & the global system
3. The importance of long term thinking to avoid
possibly irreversible or very costly damage & loss of life
2
Imperatives for Sustainable Systems
Economy
(efficiency)
Environment
(maintain/
enhance)
Individual/
Community
(cohesion)
3
Sustainability:
 Normative
standard/social goal
 Vision of the future
 Iroquois Confederation (7 generations)
 More inclusive/comprehensive view of
economic development/well-being
 Whatever it takes to maintain the lives &
livelihoods of people in the system
4
Sustainable Agriculture, as an example:
“An integrated system of plant & animal production
practices having a site specific application that will, over
the long term: satisfy human food & fiber needs; enhance
environmental quality & the natural resource base upon
which the agricultural economy depends; make the most
efficient use of nonrenewable resources and on-farm
resources and integrate, where appropriate, natural
biological cycles & controls; sustain the economic viability
of farm farm operation; and enhance the quality of life for
farmers and society as a whole.”
--The Food, Agriculture, Conservation, & Trade Act of 1990
5
“5 Capitals” of Viederman:
1.Nature’s Capital: the flow of natural resources &
cycling of waste (& life-sustaining ecosystem)
2.Human Capital: people using knowledge/skills to
function
3.Human-created Capital: technology & productive
facilities
4.Social Capital: networks of civic institutions &
norms
5.Cultural Capital: myths/stories/visions shared by
people
6
Sustainability as an Ethical Standard
 Individualism
vs. interdependence
 Need buy-in by key participants
 Crosses disciplines
 Concept of “multifunctionality” for
sustaining farms
7
Energy Consumption by Primary Source
Pre 17th century: human,
animal, hydro
1635-1880: Wood
1880-1945: Coal
1945-Present: Petroleum
(80% of energy from
fossil fuels)
2030: ???
8
US Energy Production by Source, 2000 (quadrillion
btu); [US imports 30% of energy consumption]
25
20
Coal
23
Natural Gas
20
Crude Oil
15
10
5
Nuclear
12
Wood/waste
8
3
3
Hydro
3
0.5
0
Energy
Flexible Energy, Inc., “Fall 2001 Energy Review”;
www.flexibleenergy.com
Natural Gas Plant
Liquids
Geothermal/other
9
Energy Trends--Sustainable?
(1990-2000 annual growth rates)
 Coal
(0%)
60
50
40
WORLD
OIL PRODUCTION
(mil.bls)
30
20
10
0
1990
 Nuclear Power (1%)
70
1970
Power (22%)
 Solar (16%)
 Geothermal (4%)
 Oil Production (2%)
 Hydro Power (2%)
1950
 Wind
10
11
12
US Energy Supply, 2004
NG:
23%
Coal: 23%
Nuclear: 8%
petroleum
natural gas
coal
nuclear energy
renewable energy
Renewable: 6%
--Biomass 47%
Petroleum:
40%
--Hydro 45%
--Geothermal 5%
--Wind 2%
DOE, EIA, Renewable Energy
Trends 2004.
--Solar 1%
13
World Marketed Energy Consumption, 19702025 (quadrillion Btu)
700
600
500
400
energy consumption
300
200
100
0
1970 1980 1990 2001 2010 2020 2025
Energy Information Administration, DOE, 2004.
14
The Physics of Energy-Sustainability difficult to maintain
 Energy:
the capacity for doing work
 The First Law of Thermodynamics: the energy of the
universe remains constant (nothing is destroyed; also
known as the Law of Conservation of Matter & Energy)
 The Second Law of Thermodynamics: entropy always
moves toward a maximum (energy moves from order to
disorder; also known as the Law of Energy
Degradation)
15
Entropy & Energy Economics
 Gross
vs. Net Energy
 Economic Reserves
 Exponential Growth
 Irreversibility
 Externalities
16
Exponential Growth:
the 29th Day
“A French riddle for children illustrates another aspect of
exponential growth--the apparent suddenness with which it
approaches a fixed limit. Suppose you own a pond on
which a water lily is growing. The lily plant doubles in size
each day. If the lily were allowed to grow unchecked, it
would completely cover the pond in 30 days, choking off
other forms of life in the water. For a long time the lily
plant seems small, & so you decide not to worry about
cutting it back until it covers half the pond. On what day
will that be? On the 29th day, of course. You have one day
to save your pond.” (D. Meadows et al, 1972)
17
Exponential Growth & Doubling Time
Growth Rate (%)
0.1
0.5
1.0
4.0
7.0
10.0
Doubling Time (yrs)
700
140
70
18
10
7
18
Energy Reserves--Past Predictions
Reserves
 Meadows
et al estimates of
selected nonrenewable resource
reserves, static vs. exponential
(1972):
– Natural Gas--38-22 years
– Petroleum--31-20 years
– Coal--2300-111 years
 What did Meadows overlook or
underestimate?
OIL
NATURAL
GAS
COAL
1992
1994
2083
time
19
Classification of Hydrocarbon & other
Nonrenewable Resources (Harris)
KNOWN
UNKNOWN
RESERVES
•Hypothetical
•Demonstrated
•Speculative
•Measured
SUBECONOMIC/
•Indicated
•Inferred
•Undiscoverable
•Irretrievable
Technological/Geological Feasibility
20
Petroleum Fuel Estimates Historically
Conservative
 Liquid-reserves
revisions plus new discoveries have
kept ahead of consumption during 1990s
 In 2003, confirmed liquid-resources in 1992 were 26%
higher reserves than originally estimated
 In 2003, confirmed gas resources discovered in 1992
were 36% greater resources than originally estimated
 Upward revisions to previous global reserves estimates
account for about 75% of all additions
Alexander’s Gas & Oil Connections, volume 8, Issue #21, 30 Oct
03; www.gasandoil.com
21
Energy--Policy & Environment to achieve
sustainability
 National
Energy Strategy
 How to achieve
MC(s) = MB(s)?
– Market Pollution Permits
– Per unit Pollution Taxes
– Liability & Bonding
Systems for Large
Stationary Polluters
– Fuel Taxes, Options &
Impacts
22
Energy--Transition to Future Fuels for
Sustainability
 Transition
– Increasing costs
– Alternative Fuel &/or New
Technology
 Policy Options
– Research & Development
– Regulation
– Tax
– Market Incentives
23
Trends in Renewable Energy
 Wind,
solar electricity costs
– reduced by 80-90% 1980-2000
– Projected competitive 2005-2015
 Spain,
Germany, Denmark provide over 20% electricity
w/wind power
 US provides 6% of total energy use w/renewable
energy; 86% w/coal, oil, natural gas
 Fossil fuels provide 75% of total energy world-wide;
biomass provides about 13%
 US per capita energy use growth rate falling from 7%
in 1960s to 2% in 2000
Union of Concerned Scientists, “Clean Energy”, www.ucsusa.org
Energy Information Administration, DOE.
24
Alternative Energy Costs, 2003*
 Average
national price of electricity: $0.08/kwh
– $24.04/Btu, 2000***
 Solar-electric
(photovoltaic): $0.20/kwh
 Solar-heat (thermal panels): $0.08/kwh
 Wind-electric: $0.04/kwh
 Ground-heat pump: $0.03/kwh**
 Gasoline: $12.58/Btu, 2000***
 Natural gas: $7.49/Btu, 2000***
* National Geographic News, 28 Oct 2004.
** heat pump cost inferred, not stated.
*** Flexible Energy, Inc.
25
World Marketed Energy Consumption by
Energy Source, 1970-2025 (quadrillion Btu)
300
250
Oil
Natural Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Other
200
150
100
50
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2025
Energy Information Administration, DOE, 2004.
26
Energy Use in US—2000
Transportation
26%
Commercial/
Residential
36%
Transportation
Industry
Commercial/Residential
Industry
38%
Union of Concerned Scientists, “Clean
Energy”, www.ucsusa.org
27
Government Subsidies Matter to Many
Energy Sources
Nuclear energy received $145 bil. in federal
subsidies 1943-1999
 Solary energy received $4.4 bil.
 Wind energy received $1.3 bil.
 Oil/gas projected to receive $11 bil. tax breaks
1999-2003

Union of Concerned Scientists, “Clean Energy”, www.ucsusa.org
28
How much will change in the future?
“In the long term [2020], . . . with
fossil fuels remaining the
dominant source of energy. . . .,
our dependence on foreign
sources of petroleum is
expected to increase and
domestic natural gas production
and natural gas imports are
expected to grow significantly.”
--Mary J. Hutzler, Department of
Energy, March 21, 2001
(www.eia.doe.gov)
29
World CO2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel, 19702025 (billion metric tons co2)
40000
35000
30000
25000
Coal
Natural Gas
Oil
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
1970
1980
1990
2001
2010
2020
2025
Energy Information Administration, DOE, 2004.
30
Agrarian Evolution & Long Term Thinking
 Process
of agricultural evolution has led to a small
percentage of large farms producing most of sales
in US
– displaced farm labor has moved into non-ag sector
either in rural communities becoming more diversified
or moving to urban areas
 Agricultural
evolution in developing countries
more rapid, more disruptive, more destructive &
harmful
– 40-50% world population lives in urban slums
31
Urban/environmental pressures increasing
 Low-income
countries face water shortages,
water pollution, air pollution, minimal shelter
shortages, transportation stresses
 Industrialization that is needed to uplift
economies will result in greater stresses on
environment & natural resource base
 1.2-1.3 billion in absolute poverty
 2/3 of world population live on less than $2/day
32
“Market Myopia”?
 Biased
w/short term perspective
 Discount rates favor present & devalue long
term
 Tend to under-value cultural/social costs
33
Population &
Food Production
Distribution is an issue:
AREA
POPULATION
 ASIA
40%
 AFRICA
10%
 L. AMERICA
10%
 EUROPE
25%
 N. AMERICA
10%
 OTHER
5%
FOOD
15%
5%
10%
45%
25%
1%
NOTE: While global distribution is an issue, hunger exists
in all parts of the world, including the developed Western
countries of Europe and the US.
34
World Hunger
 Each
minute 20-35 humans die from hunger &
malnutrition
– 7-20 are children
– At minimum, equals a “Hiroshima” every 5 days
(140,000)
 Chronic Hunger & Malnutrition: 14% of World
Population
– 842 million people
– Lack of food and vatamin/mineral deficiencies (iron, A,
iodine, zinc)
Source: World Food Day, various programs
35
World Hunger (cont.)
 Point
of comparison: All Wars/conflicts of
20th century claimed 130 mil-260 mil.
 Hunger Deaths in Past 10 yrs 100-200
mil.
 250,000 infants/small children may die
each week from diet-related, “easily”
preventable diseases
 Thousands more--diet-related blindness &
physical & mental retardation
Source: World Food Day, various programs.
36
8000 BC
5-10 MIL.
5000 BC
20 MIL
3000 BC
50 MIL.
1400 BC
100 MIL.
0
200 MIL.
1200
400 MIL.
2000
1700
800 MIL.
0
1900
1.5 BIL.
BC
1960
3 BIL.
1996
6 BIL.
2006
6.5 bil.
2036-50
11-12 BIL???37
14000
12000
10000
8000
6000
19
96
00
19
00
12
BC
14
00
BC
00
50
m
il.
4000
3
MILLION HUMANS
HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH,
ESTIMATED & PROJECTED
(3 Million BC-2036)
YEAR
Local, Regional, Global Conflicts Likely
to Increase
 Land
stress
 Water stress*
– 2025: 48 countries
– 2050: 52 countries
 Energy
stress
 Pollution stress
 Health stress
*Source: M. Hamm, “Integrating Local and
Global Food Systems”, NPPEC, St.
Louis, September 2004
38
World Hunger (cont.)
 World
Hunger is NOT a food production problem
– Technology alone won’t solve the problem
– Monoculture export agriculture may worsen problem
– Patent movement may worsen problem
 Economics--poverty--is
the problem
– 1.2 billion people are below poverty level
– Distribution of resources is part of that
– Education is critical to the solution
39
World Hunger (cont.)

What causes poverty is complex and often varies
– Geography, weather, manmade conflicts, bad policies, corruption



Economic development is the key
Education is the foundation for economic development
But . . .
– What is the carrying capacity of earth?
– Will the US allow development outside its plan?
– What pressures can we expect to worsen?
» Economic?
» Physical?
» Sociopolitical?
– Does population tend to stabilize as economy and distribution
improve?
40
Poor Countries less efficient in energy
use, thus more wasteful & polluting
 Developed
(relatively wealthy) countries have
decreased CO2/GDP$ emissions 50% in past 30
years
 Low-income countries produce about 5x more
emissions/GDP$ than rich countries
 Example:
1. US co2 emissions/person: 24x India
2. US co2 emissions/GDP$: 1/3 of India levels
41
Poor Countries’ access to clean air/water
result in severe health problems
 Over
1 billion people don’t have access to
safe drinking water
 2 billion don’t have adequate sanitation
 High rates of illness/disabilities
42
Economic Development Argument
 Raise
people out of poverty
 Lower fertility rates
 Increase use of cleaner, less resource-intensive
technologies
 Often destructive to culture
 More sustainable?
– No guarantee that technology will keep up
– tendency for multinational corporate exploitation
– failures of empowerment often occur (especially
w/women), leading to dependency, injustice,
corruption, more exploitation, political destabilization
43
Income Distribution increasingly skewed
 Wealthiest
20% of world population
accounts for 83% of world income
 Poorest 20% account for 1.4% of world
income
 Gap has more than doubled since 1960
 US: Top 1% have as much after tax income
as bottom 100 million people (60%+)
44
Arguments for failure of sustainable
environmental systems
 Rural
poor living in fragile ecosystems
 Ineffective property rights/lack of enforcement
 Concentration of power/lack of accountability
(especially w/multinationals, & non-democratic
governments)
 Trade in waste/toxics
 Trade agreements that weaken environmental
protection
45
Arguments for failure of sustainable
environmental systems (continued)
 Political
power controlling; lack of public access
 Government/corporate control of news media
 Market has a short term perspective
 Tax incentives distort environment/natural
resource management
 Lack of leadershp in fostering ethical vision of
sustainability
 Cultural dysfunction may lead to social problems
46
Alternatives that may lead to sustainable
global situation
 Disaster(s)
cause rapid reduction in population?
 Government intervention?
– incentives
– command & control
– “new world order”
 Free
Market may work?
 Multinationals take over?
47
Major Fuel Prices
$ per
1,000 cu. ft.
$ per
gallon
3.00
14
76%
2.00
Gasoline, Regular; $/gal
Diesel, No.1; $/gal
$2.32
12
10
8
6
1.00
$1.32
4
Natural Gas, Wellhead; $/mcf
2
0.00
0
2002
Source: U.S. Dept of Energy, EIA
2003
2004
2005
48
Energy Costs as a Share of COP
Vary by Crop
40%
Indirect
Direct
30%
20%
10%
0%
Oilseed &
grain
Vegetables
Source: Ag Census, 2002.
Fruit & tree
nuts
Green-house
& nursery
Cotton
Livestock
Activities
49
Sources
Alexander’s Gas & Oil Connections, volume 8, Issue #21, 30 Oct 03;
www.gasandoil.com
Energy Information Administration, DOE, “International Energy Outlook 2004”,
www.eia.doe.gov
Flexible Energy, Inc., “Fall 2001 Energy Review”; www.flexibleenergy.com
Hackett, text.
Hamm, M. “Integrating Local and Global Food Systems”, NPPEC, St. Louis,
September 2004.
Harris, J., Environmental and Natural Resource Economics,Houghton Mifflin
Co., 2002 (slide 19, Lesson 12a this course adapted from US Bureau of
Mines & USGS, 1976).
Mary J. Hutzler, Department of Energy, March 21, 2001(www.eia.doe.gov)
Union of Concerned Scientists, “Clean Energy”, www.ucsusa.org
World Food Day, United Nations, various programs.
50
L8a: Homework







Read Ch. 11, Hackett (21 Mar)
Read Ch. 12, Hackett (23 Mar)
Do # 2, p. 282 (23 Mar) – 4 points
Do #6, p. 322 (28 Mar) – 4 points
Refer to “Internet Links” (30 Mar) –3 points
– Select 2 links (pp. 282-283)
– Briefly review, including
» Content
» Bias or objectivity
» Likely use of material
Refer to “Internet Links” (4 Apr) –3 points
– Select 2 links (pp. 323)
– Briefly review, including
» Content
» Bias or objectivity
» Likely use of material
Alternate Homework--tba
51