Transcript Slide 1

Raising the Bar:
Refocused Indicators for U.S.
Government Assistance to Pakistan
Prepared for:
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
By:
Isaac Eagan
Senay Goitom
Santosh Lamichhane
Paige Muegenburg
Natalie Olson
Team Members
Isaac Eagan
Santosh Lamichhane
Paige Muegenburg
Senay Goitom
Natalie Olson
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Executive Summary
• The Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan Act
outlined a new, whole-of-nation approach for
U.S. government aid to Pakistan.
• Clear, focused indicators are needed to measure
the effectiveness of this new approach.
• We propose 23 indicators measuring progress in
security, political/economic, and social services
assistance.
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U.S. Government Aid to Pakistan
From FY2002 - FY2010
U.S. provided ~ $11 billion in aid
– $7 billion in civilian aid
• $4.3 billion in economic and political aid
• $2.7 billion in social services aid
– $4.4 billion in security related aid
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Enhanced Partnership with Pakistan
Act (EPPA)
• Signed into law in 2009
• Authorizes $7.5 billion in civilian aid from
FY2010 – FY2014
– Effectively triples amount of civilian aid
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U.S. Government Aid to Pakistan
Millions of Dollars
4,000
3,500
Social Services (Including
Disaster Assistance)
3,000
Economic and Political
2,500
1,299
Security Related
804
2,000
868
1,500
802
1,000
28
500
626
0
177
51
223
258
45
251
113
2002
2003
2004
76
59
329
163
376
500
130
377
349
398
396
517
2006 2007
Fiscal Year
2008
2005
989
2009
1,232
2010
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The Issue
• We need to ensure that adequate
measures are in place to assess this
new strategy in Pakistan.
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How We Assessed Aid Effectiveness
• Determined the primary goals of the U.S.
government for each aid category.
• Selected indicators based on the following
questions:
– How applicable is the indicator to the stated goal?
– How quantifiable is the indicator?
– Are there existing data, or is it feasible that data
could be easily collected?
– Is there scholarly evidence to support the
effectiveness of the indicator?
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How We Developed Our Indicators
We examined those outlined by:
– 2010 Quarterly Progress and Oversight Report on
the Civilian Assistance Program in Pakistan
– Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC)
– State Department/USAID’s Standard Foreign
Assistance Indicators
– Alternate governmental, non-governmental, and
academic sources
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Security-related Goals
• Disruption of internal extremist activities
• Increased security along the AfghanistanPakistan border
• Improvements in nuclear weapons
containment
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Security-related Indicators
Goals
Disruption of Internal Extremist
Activities
Indicators
Number of Violent Extremist
Incidents
Extremist Organization
Membership Estimates
Increased Security along the
Afghanistan-Pakistan Border
Attempted Illegal Crossings
Improvements In Nuclear
Weapons Containment
ACA Report Card Scores
Attempted Drug Flow
ITDB Incidents
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Political Goals
• Improving Local Governance Capacity
• Strengthening Electoral Institutions
• Strengthening Civil Society
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Political Indicators
Goals
Improving Local
Governance Capacity
Indicators
Percentage of Targeted Municipalities
that Make Decisions Based on Joint
Planning Boards
Percentage of Citizens that Express
Confidence in LocalGovernment
Strengthening
Electoral Institutions
Political Rights
Strengthening
Civil Society
Number of Civil Society Organizations
Receiving U.S.-Assisted Training in
Advocacy
Civil Society Index
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Economic Goals
• Increasing Performance in Agriculture Sector
– 21 percent of Pakistan’s GDP
– employs 43 percent of its total labor force
– 90 percent of water earmarked for agricultural use (1/3 of
which is wasted)
• Improving Performance in Energy Sector
– Loss of industrial productivity due to frequent energy
shortfalls and blackouts are estimated to cost $2.5 billion
and 400,000 jobs per year
– Manufacturing and industrial sectors account for 24
percent of Pakistan's GDP
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Economic Indicators
Goals
Increasing
Performance in
Agriculture Sector
Indicators
Adjusted Agricultural Yield
Number of Farmers Adopting New
Technologies/Management Practices as a Result of
U.S. Assistance
Number of Additional Hectares under Improved
Technologies/Management Practices as a Result of
U.S. Assistance.
Improving
Performance in
Energy Sector
Additional Megawatt Capacity
Constructed/Rehabilitated as a result of U.S.
Assistance
Cumulative Number of Households with Electricity as
a Result of U.S. Assistance.
Percent Change in Load Shedding—Cutting off
Poweron Certain Lines when Demand Exceeds Supply
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Social Services Goals
• Improve Education
–
–
–
–
–
Universal access to public, modernized education
Construction and maintenance of libraries and public schools
Increased vocational and technical training for at-risk youth
Increased opportunities for women and girls
Increased female literacy
• Improve Public Health
–
–
–
–
Reduce and eliminate major infectious diseases
Reduce maternal mortality and mortality under age five
Provide safe drinking water
Meet family planning needs
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Social Services Indicators
Goals
Indicators
Girls’ Primary Education Completion Rate
Improve Education
Primary Education Net Enrollment Rate
Immunization Rate
Access to Improved Drinking Water
Improve Health
Child Mortality
Contraceptive Prevalence Rate
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Conclusion
• Limitations
– Aid measurement challenges
– Availability of information
– Lag time in results
• Clear, focused framework to measure
progress
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Questions?
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For further information
Contact the La Follette School’s publications office at
608-263-7657 or [email protected]
Or see
www.lafollette.wisc.edu/publications/workshops.html
Thank you