Transcript Przeciw stereotypom Rozszerzenie Unii Europejskiej o Polskę

Witold M.Orłowski
Bridging the development gap
between two parts of Europe
European Economic Congress
Opportunities of Change
Clichés
(1): „East was always poor and
underdeveloped...”
(2): „Nothing works in the East...”
(3): „Enlargement is an unprecedented sacrifice
of the West...”
(4): „Costs will be huge, gains marginal (effects
have already appeared)...”
(5): ..........
Information Deficit
I agree
In Poland there exists...
Democracy Functioning
market
and rule of law economy
Fast
Low bureaucracy
Economic
and corruption
growth
60%
40%
20%
0%
-20%
I disagree
-40%
-60%
-80%
Frenchmen
Germans
Spaniards
Population of Europe
SLAV-3
210 mn
UE-15
370 mn
CEEC-10
110 mn
Źródło: OECD
GDP adjusted for purchasing power
Rosja
UE-15
Polska
Źródło: OECD
Lower development level
GDP per capita, 2000 (Germany=100)
Romania
Poland
Hungary
Czech Republic
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Germany
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Not always the case...
GDP per capita, 1929 (Germany=100)
Romania
Poland in frontiers from 2000
Poland
Hungary
Czech Republic
Portugal
Spain
Italy
Germany
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
What CE Europe Wants:
convergence, not eternal assistance
GDP p.c. in CEEC and EU
120
100
80
EU-15
EU poorest (Greece)
60
40
CEEC-10
20
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
CEEC Membership: the fears
%
75%
50%
25%
0%
Budgetary Migra- Institutional Agriculture Crime
costs
tions
problems
Frenchmen
Germans
Spaniards
Some Clichés about Enlargement
Small benefits for the EU, huge costs
Uncontrollable budgetary costs
Adjustment burden on the EU-15 frontier
countries
Big losses for the current EU poor regions
Migrations, labour market mismatch
Unprecedented problems of agriculture
Huge costs for CAP
Passive Approach
There are some rationale for fears, but:
Scale exaggerated
No verification
Misunderstandings
(e.g. Globalization-Enlargement)
Passive Approach to Enlargement (how to
„divide” instead of how to „multiply”)
Example: Costs and Benefits
Costs under control
Misunderstanding about the scale
Benefits: not just static welfare gains due to
the trade effects. Investment!
Time pattern: investment (costs first, benefits
later)
Example: Costs and Benefits
Costs and benefits in 2014, C billion
100.0
Benefits
Costs
Net gains
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
0.0
-20.0
-40.0
EU-15:
private
sector
EU-15:
public
sector
EU
New members
budget
(budgetary
effects only)
Example: migrations
Fears exaggerated, as:
Based on experience from the past
Underestimate the progress
Underestimate EU experience
Migration smaller than expected
Good for the EU-15 labour markets
Some regional problems possible
Example: migrations
Wage as % of the wage in Germany
20.0
Poland
15.0
Czech R.
10.0
Romania
5.0
Bulgaria
0.0
1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Real convergence
Long-term process
50 years divergence – 50 years convergence?
Common interest: economic, social, political
Rio Grande problem: Oder? Bug?
Real convergence possible, but:
Concluding transition
Right policies
Investment in human capital
Knowledge-based economy
Exploring comparative advantages
Supporting entrepreneurship
Market-friendly environment
Flexibility
Investment in human capital
Market-friendly environment