Transcript Chatham House 2008 - The United States Association for

China’s Future Oil Demand for Road Transportation
Co-authors:
Ronald Soligo
James Coan
Professor of Economics
Rice University
Research Associate
Energy Forum
Baker Institute for Public Policy
Rice University
Kenneth B. Medlock III
October 11, 2011
James A. Baker, III, and Susan
G. Baker Fellow in Energy and
Resource Economics
Rice University
Overview of Presentation
• Projection of How Much an Average
Light-duty Vehicle Will be Driven in
China
• Projection of Road Freight (usually
Medium/Heavy Truck) Oil Use in
China
• Next steps Toward Projecting Total
Road Transportation Oil Use
Light Duty Vehicles:
Vehicle Use Often Matters More than Light-Duty Vehicle Stocks
Light-Duty Vehicle Stocks Per Capita
50%
Light-Duty Vehicle Use Per Capita
200%
• Vehicle stocks only account for 1/3 of the difference in vehicle use between U.S.
and Japan.
Source: Millard-Ball, Adam and Lee Schipper. 2010. “Are We Reaching Peak Travel? Trends in
Passenger Transport in Eight Industrialized Countries.” http://www.geog.mcgill.ca/faculty/millardball/Millard-Ball_Schipper_Peak_Travel_preprint.pdf.
Light Duty Vehicles:
Vehicle Use Very Different in
Japan, Western Europe and North America
Light-Duty Vehicle Stocks Per Capita
Canada,
Western
Europe,
Japan
Light-Duty Vehicle Use Per Capita
Canada
Western
Europe
~100%
Japan
• Canada, Western Europe, and Japan have roughly the same number of light-duty
vehicles/capita, but each vehicle is driven about twice as much in Canada and 50-75%
more in Europe than in Japan.
Source: Millard-Ball, Adam and Lee Schipper. 2010. “Are We Reaching Peak Travel? Trends in
Passenger Transport in Eight Industrialized Countries.” http://www.geog.mcgill.ca/faculty/millardball/Millard-Ball_Schipper_Peak_Travel_preprint.pdf.
By Comparing Density, China Seems More Like
Western Europe or Japan than North America
China in 2020:
Density of between
4,770-5,850 people
per km2
China in 2035:
Density of between
3,420-4,870 people
per km2
This analysis takes into account findings from Angel et al. (2011) that doubling
GDP/capita leads to a density decline of 25-40%, while a doubling of the population
size of a city increases density by 16-19%.
Sources: Demographia. 2011. “Demographica World Urban Areas (World Agglomeations).” 7th Annual Edition. April.
http://www.demographia.com/db-worldua.pdf.
Angel, Shlomo et al. 2011. “Making Room for a Planet of Cities.” Lincoln Institute of Land Policy.
https://www.lincolninst.edu/pubs/dl/1880_1195_Angel%20PFR%20final.pdf.
Comparing Rail Modal Share China Appears to be
Headed on a Path More Like Western Europe than Japan
Sources: UK Department of Transport, Energy Data Modelling Center (Japan), China Statistical Yearbook, Penn World Tables
If Extensive Rail Investment Continues/Accelerates,
China May be More Like Japan
Average Rail Infrastructure Investment as Proportion of Land
Transportation (Rail and Road) Investment,
+/- One SD, 1992-2009
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
United
Kingdom
Korea
Germany
China
France
Australia
United States
Canada
Japan
Source: International Transport Forum. http://www.internationaltransportforum.org/statistics/index.html.
Projecting How Much an Average
Light-Duty Vehicle Will be Driven in China
2020
2035
2020 (GDP
~$15,000 /
capita)
2035 (GDP
~$26,500 /
capita)
If like Japan:
<11,000
km/vehicle
If like Japan:
<9,500
km/vehicle
If like the
UK:
<14,000
km/vehicle
If like the
UK: <15,500
km/vehicle
(est.)
At $15,000 GDP/capita, each vehicle was driven about 25-30 percent more in the UK
than Japan, and this increased to 50-60 percent at $26,500/capita.
Sources :UK Department of Transport, Energy Data Modelling Center (Japan)
Note: This assumes GDP/capita of in 2005$ PPP, using Penn World Tables as baseline and growth projections from IEA
Moving Freight in China Could be a Significant Consumer of Oil
Trucking
Oil Use
Oil Use
Freight Oil
in 2020
in 2035
Intensity
Lowest (110,000
bbl/ trillion
(million (million
b/d)
b/d)
2.3
4.1
3.6
6.4
6.5
11.7
2005$)
Middle (170,000
bbl/ trillion
2005$)
Highest (310,000
bbl/ trillion
2005$)
Source: Schipper, L., Scholl, L., Price, L.,1997 ENERGY USE AND CARBON EMISSIONS FROM FREIGHT IN 10
INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES: AN ANALYSIS OF TRENDS FROM 1973 TO 1992; Kamakaté and Schipper 2009.
Relationship Between Freight Ton-Kms and Oil Use
Sources: L. Schipper, L. Scholl, and L. Price, “Energy Use and Carbon Emissions From Freight in 10 Industrialized Countries: An Analysis
of Trends from 1973 TO 1992,” Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 2, no. 1 (1997): 57-76.
F. Kamakaté and L. Schipper, “Trends in Truck Freight Energy Use and Carbon Emissions in Selected OECD Countries from 1973 to
2005,” Energy Policy 37 (2009): 3743-51.
China Is Very Intensive in Terms of Freight Ton-Kms
per Unit GDP, and Intensity May Increase Further
Freight Ton-Kms per Dollar of GDP
in Eastern European Countries
High but Still Lower than China
China’s ton-kms per unit GDP
is higher than any other
country we’ve found, twice as
high as the U.S. and four times
higher than Western Europe.
Given the relationship
between ton-kms and oil use,
China should be using about
340,000 b/d per trillion GDP,
twice the average .
Yet China’s oil use seems fairly
average at this point close to
170,000 b/d.
China
2008
China
2009
Sources: Eurostat, China Statistical Yearbook
Factors Influencing Future Chinese Trucking Freight Ton-Kms
Factors That May Increase Freight Oil Use in the
Future:
• Current overloading of trucks may be controlled
• Initiatives to move production toward western China
• No clear push to regulate fuel efficiency in medium/heavy
trucks
Factors That May Restrict Freight Oil Use in the
Future:
• Chinese government has a very significant commitment to rail
(120,000 kms by 2015, up from about 86,000 kms in 2009)
• Possibly better logistics and reduced “empty miles”
Conclusions
• Both how light-duty vehicles are driven and
oil use from trucking freight deserve our
respect – they are sometimes overlooked
compared with awe at the hundreds of
millions of light-duty vehicles that will be on
China’s roads, but they are very important
for oil use.
• There is a large range of how light-duty
vehicles are driven around the world;
Chinese vehicles will likely be driven similar
to vehicles in Japan/Western Europe.
• China has a very high level of freight tonkms for its level of GDP, and even if use is
average, oil use will still be 3.6 million b/d in
2020 and 6.4 million b/d in 2035.
Next Steps
In order to fully project oil use from road transportation, we will
• Estimate future vehicle stocks for China (using International
Road Federation data with >100 countries)
• Conduct interviews on the future of freight in China
If you would like a copy of the presentation or have questions: [email protected]
Light Duty Vehicles:
Vehicle Use Per Vehicle Different in Japan, Western Europe,
and U.S./Canada
U.S.,
Canada
Japan
Major
Western
European
Countries
Source: International Energy Agency, Transport, Energy and CO2: Moving
Toward Sustainability (Paris: International Energy Agency, 2009).